Make the strategy more sensible

README.md

@@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ These are the description of the variables used by the Trader service:
 - `OMEN_CREATORS`: addresses of the market creator(s) that the service will track
   for placing bets on Omen. The address `0x89c5cc945dd550BcFfb72Fe42BfF002429F46Fec` corresponds to the Market creator agent for the Hackathon.
 - `BET_AMOUNT_PER_THRESHOLD_X`: amount (wei) to bet when the prediction returned by the AI Mech surpasses a threshold of `X`% confidence for a given prediction market. In the values provided above the amounts vary between 0.03 xDAI (60% confidence) and 0.1 xDAI (100% confidence).
-- `BET_THRESHOLD`: threshold (wei) for placing a bet. A bet will only be placed if `expected_return - bet_fees >= BET_THRESHOLD`. [See below](#some-notes-on-the-service).
+- `BET_THRESHOLD`: threshold (wei) for placing a bet. A bet will only be placed if `potential_net_profit - BET_THRESHOLD >= 0`. [See below](#some-notes-on-the-service).
 - `PROMPT_TEMPLATE`: prompt to be used with the prediction AI Mech. Please keep it as a single line including the placeholders `@{question}`, `@{yes}` and `@{no}`.
 
 
@@ -153,8 +153,15 @@ Once you have configured (exported) the environment variables, you are in positi
 Please take into consideration the following:
 
 - If the service does not have enough funds for placing a bet, you will see an `Event.INSUFICIENT_FUNDS` in the service logs.
-- If the service determines that a bet is not profitable (i.e., `expected_return - bet_fees < BET_THRESHOLD`), you will see an `Event.UNPROFITABLE` in the service logs, and the service will transition into the blacklisting round. This round blacklists a bet for a predetermined amount of time. This can be adjusted by using the `BLACKLISTING_DURATION` environment variable.
-- For simplicity, the current implementation considers `expected_return = bet_amount`, although this calculation might be refined.
+- If the service determines that a bet is not profitable 
+ (i.e., `potential_net_profit - BET_THRESHOLD < 0`), you will see an `Event.UNPROFITABLE` in the service logs, 
+ and the service will transition into the blacklisting round. 
+ This round blacklists a bet for a predetermined amount of time. 
+ This can be adjusted by using the `BLACKLISTING_DURATION` environment variable.
+- For simplicity, 
+ the current implementation considers `potential_net_profit = num_shares - net_bet_amount - mech_price - BET_THRESHOLD`, 
+ although this calculation might be refined. 
+ The `net_bet_amount` is the bet amount minus the FPMM's fees.
 - When assigning `BET_THRESHOLD` take into consideration that fees (at the time of writing this guide) are in the range of 0.02 xDAI. See, for example, [here](https://api.thegraph.com/subgraphs/name/protofire/omen-xdai/graphql?query=%7B%0A++fixedProductMarketMakers%28%0A++++where%3A+%7B%0A++++++creator_in%3A+%5B%220x89c5cc945dd550BcFfb72Fe42BfF002429F46Fec%22%5D%2C%0A++++++outcomeSlotCount%3A+2%2C%0A++++++isPendingArbitration%3A+false%0A++++%7D%2C%0A++++orderBy%3A+creationTimestamp%0A++++orderDirection%3A+desc%0A++%29%7B%0A++++fee%0A++%7D%0A%7D). We urge you to keep an eye on these fees, as they might vary.
 
 ## For advanced users

packages/packages.json

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 {
     "dev": {
-        "skill/valory/market_manager_abci/0.1.0": "bafybeibwcm2wqoucpbep6pav4fb5mofhjahxiqszul4wcv4xr52dei6pe4",
-        "skill/valory/decision_maker_abci/0.1.0": "bafybeiejy2zxj5wzriay2vwecgvxxprwvs6rt32627jtjfn7gtsy46eimy",
-        "skill/valory/trader_abci/0.1.0": "bafybeiexo6pdhhdipnceixtls47jonhflcqsxnbv2c333zmgfxmoygfwgu",
+        "skill/valory/market_manager_abci/0.1.0": "bafybeih6tmi4blhdqkjgtvqkwbtbky5kzhl57h6ze4rtr3r2rh43pkhvyi",
+        "skill/valory/decision_maker_abci/0.1.0": "bafybeiapptasim4es2d6c5y77xgdb4gxerptjrqs5yuk2f4j6jtgkjxnx4",
+        "skill/valory/trader_abci/0.1.0": "bafybeib6ftuul7xywf6jo3djf5oxbpf2v56mk5jo3apcrjw6b6t6jyeuyu",
         "contract/valory/market_maker/0.1.0": "bafybeiftimqgvrbval2lxp7au6y72amioo4gtcdth2dflrbwa47i6opyb4",
-        "agent/valory/trader/0.1.0": "bafybeidclpkg6uwii2d5gk74b4l6pv3vfgrg5tt3njumhk2ab3uidcogky",
-        "service/valory/trader/0.1.0": "bafybeidug5h7tac43yp5t6mfyl3qdmfwzh63otz63l547iiguosyyygmnq",
+        "agent/valory/trader/0.1.0": "bafybeigqa5m2glgteznsq5u7b6xozxacxwdc3fzqszjydur7jggdvz4bti",
+        "service/valory/trader/0.1.0": "bafybeifbkjth5pf3uivauzwy442z6fxq2brnpc4oa5o42fa4abyhcpnsxe",
         "contract/valory/erc20/0.1.0": "bafybeifjwr6rwklgg2uk2zkfysn55qqy7dfi4jx7sek6lzdup37fynhpxe",
-        "skill/valory/tx_settlement_multiplexer_abci/0.1.0": "bafybeiffvwkifzq4eiqr4syfbbsfjcrsea5wj55ttismoxozt6trithu7u",
+        "skill/valory/tx_settlement_multiplexer_abci/0.1.0": "bafybeiekmihdxbomflh7baa4nnh73hgigd4taqsld7swa4lmlltpcisn6u",
         "contract/valory/mech/0.1.0": "bafybeie753wdqks6k4x5fqlpo7tgll2avutjcaodpwlptqvzefsi5xbvai",
         "contract/valory/realitio/0.1.0": "bafybeid5cdncqui3egi57eh6ptz2yqxsjpnmwzdc2siewuown3gktdwm6m",
         "contract/valory/realitio_proxy/0.1.0": "bafybeibvndq6756qck7forgeavhdbn6ykgqs2ufyg7n5g6qdfpveatxuwy",

packages/valory/agents/trader/aea-config.yaml

@@ -41,10 +41,10 @@ skills:
 - valory/reset_pause_abci:0.1.0:bafybeifoihgilpfr76hc5skzspm6qehkwivx7ld2cy3veipcsi4gr2c7na
 - valory/termination_abci:0.1.0:bafybeigcsls72uosoui2y5ppmnvsljjhnxakkeh3fdohklcg66aqq4g7xu
 - valory/transaction_settlement_abci:0.1.0:bafybeiglsnh2hvfau5gab7requh34k4sbqwbjvrhhqjpes4hakcwq46cpi
-- valory/tx_settlement_multiplexer_abci:0.1.0:bafybeiffvwkifzq4eiqr4syfbbsfjcrsea5wj55ttismoxozt6trithu7u
-- valory/market_manager_abci:0.1.0:bafybeibwcm2wqoucpbep6pav4fb5mofhjahxiqszul4wcv4xr52dei6pe4
-- valory/decision_maker_abci:0.1.0:bafybeiejy2zxj5wzriay2vwecgvxxprwvs6rt32627jtjfn7gtsy46eimy
-- valory/trader_abci:0.1.0:bafybeiexo6pdhhdipnceixtls47jonhflcqsxnbv2c333zmgfxmoygfwgu
+- valory/tx_settlement_multiplexer_abci:0.1.0:bafybeiekmihdxbomflh7baa4nnh73hgigd4taqsld7swa4lmlltpcisn6u
+- valory/market_manager_abci:0.1.0:bafybeih6tmi4blhdqkjgtvqkwbtbky5kzhl57h6ze4rtr3r2rh43pkhvyi
+- valory/decision_maker_abci:0.1.0:bafybeiapptasim4es2d6c5y77xgdb4gxerptjrqs5yuk2f4j6jtgkjxnx4
+- valory/trader_abci:0.1.0:bafybeib6ftuul7xywf6jo3djf5oxbpf2v56mk5jo3apcrjw6b6t6jyeuyu
 default_ledger: ethereum
 required_ledgers:
 - ethereum

packages/valory/services/trader/service.yaml

@@ -7,7 +7,7 @@ license: Apache-2.0
 fingerprint:
   README.md: bafybeigtuothskwyvrhfosps2bu6suauycolj67dpuxqvnicdrdu7yhtvq
 fingerprint_ignore_patterns: []
-agent: valory/trader:0.1.0:bafybeidclpkg6uwii2d5gk74b4l6pv3vfgrg5tt3njumhk2ab3uidcogky
+agent: valory/trader:0.1.0:bafybeigqa5m2glgteznsq5u7b6xozxacxwdc3fzqszjydur7jggdvz4bti
 number_of_agents: 4
 deployment: {}
 ---

packages/valory/skills/decision_maker_abci/behaviours/decision_receive.py

@@ -19,6 +19,7 @@
 
 """This module contains the behaviour for the decision-making of the skill."""
 
+from math import prod
 from typing import Any, Generator, Optional, Tuple, Union
 
 from packages.valory.contracts.mech.contract import Mech
@@ -36,6 +37,7 @@
 from packages.valory.skills.decision_maker_abci.states.decision_receive import (
     DecisionReceiveRound,
 )
+from packages.valory.skills.market_manager_abci.bets import BINARY_N_SLOTS
 
 
 IPFS_HASH_PREFIX = "f01701220"
@@ -221,20 +223,81 @@ def _get_decision(
 
         return self.mech_response.result.vote, self.mech_response.result.confidence
 
-    def _is_profitable(self, confidence: float) -> bool:
+    def _calc_binary_shares(self, net_bet_amount: int, vote: int) -> Tuple[int, int]:
+        """Calculate the claimed shares. This calculation only works for binary markets."""
+        bet = self.synchronized_data.sampled_bet
+
+        # calculate the pool's k (x*y=k)
+        token_amounts = bet.outcomeTokenAmounts
+        if token_amounts is None:
+            return 0, 0
+        k = prod(token_amounts)
+
+        # the OMEN market trades an equal amount of the investment to each of the tokens in the pool
+        # here we calculate the bet amount per pool's token
+        bet_per_token = net_bet_amount / BINARY_N_SLOTS
+
+        # calculate the number of the traded tokens
+        prices = bet.outcomeTokenMarginalPrices
+        if prices is None:
+            return 0, 0
+        tokens_traded = [int(bet_per_token / prices[i]) for i in range(BINARY_N_SLOTS)]
+
+        # get the shares for the answer that the service has selected
+        selected_shares = tokens_traded.pop(vote)
+
+        # get the shares for the opposite answer
+        other_shares = tokens_traded.pop()
+
+        # get the number of tokens in the pool for the answer that the service has selected
+        selected_type_tokens_in_pool = token_amounts.pop(vote)
+
+        # get the number of tokens in the pool for the opposite answer
+        other_tokens_in_pool = token_amounts.pop()
+
+        # the OMEN market then trades the opposite tokens to the tokens of the answer that has been selected,
+        # preserving the balance of the pool
+        # here we calculate the number of shares that we get after trading the tokens for the opposite answer
+        tokens_remaining_in_pool = int(k / (other_tokens_in_pool + other_shares))
+        swapped_shares = selected_type_tokens_in_pool - tokens_remaining_in_pool
+
+        # calculate the resulting number of shares if the service would take that position
+        num_shares = selected_shares + swapped_shares
+        # calculate the available number of shares
+        price = prices[vote]
+        available_shares = int(selected_type_tokens_in_pool * price)
+
+        return num_shares, available_shares
+
+    def _is_profitable(self, confidence: float, vote: int) -> bool:
         """Whether the decision is profitable or not."""
+        bet = self.synchronized_data.sampled_bet
+        bet_amount = self.params.get_bet_amount(confidence)
+        net_bet_amount = int(bet_amount * (1 - self.wei_to_native(bet.fee)))
+        num_shares, available_shares = self._calc_binary_shares(net_bet_amount, vote)
+        mech_price = self.synchronized_data.mech_price
         bet_threshold = self.params.bet_threshold
 
-        if bet_threshold < 0:
+        if bet_threshold <= 0:
             self.context.logger.warning(
-                f"A negative bet threshold was given ({bet_threshold}), "
-                f"which means that the profitability check will be bypassed!"
+                f"A non-positive bet threshold was given ({bet_threshold}). The threshold will be disabled, "
+                f"which means that any non-negative potential profit will be considered profitable!"
             )
-            return True
+            bet_threshold = 0
 
-        bet_amount = self.params.get_bet_amount(confidence)
-        fee = self.synchronized_data.sampled_bet.fee
-        return bet_amount - fee >= bet_threshold
+        potential_net_profit = num_shares - net_bet_amount - mech_price - bet_threshold
+        is_profitable = potential_net_profit >= 0 and num_shares <= available_shares
+        shares_out = self.wei_to_native(num_shares)
+        available_in = self.wei_to_native(available_shares)
+        shares_out_of = f"{shares_out} / {available_in}"
+        self.context.logger.info(
+            f"The current liquidity of the market is {bet.scaledLiquidityMeasure} xDAI. "
+            f"The potential net profit is {self.wei_to_native(potential_net_profit)} xDAI "
+            f"from buying {shares_out_of} shares for the option {bet.get_outcome(vote)}.\n"
+            f"Decision for profitability of this market: {is_profitable}."
+        )
+
+        return is_profitable
 
     def async_act(self) -> Generator:
         """Do the action."""
@@ -243,7 +306,7 @@ def async_act(self) -> Generator:
             vote, confidence = yield from self._get_decision()
             is_profitable = None
             if vote is not None and confidence is not None:
-                is_profitable = self._is_profitable(confidence)
+                is_profitable = self._is_profitable(confidence, vote)
             payload = DecisionReceivePayload(
                 self.context.agent_address,
                 is_profitable,

packages/valory/skills/decision_maker_abci/behaviours/decision_request.py

@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@
     SAFE_GAS,
     WaitableConditionType,
 )
-from packages.valory.skills.decision_maker_abci.payloads import MultisigTxPayload
+from packages.valory.skills.decision_maker_abci.payloads import RequestPayload
 from packages.valory.skills.decision_maker_abci.states.decision_request import (
     DecisionRequestRound,
 )
@@ -197,11 +197,11 @@ def async_act(self) -> Generator:
         """Do the action."""
 
         with self.context.benchmark_tool.measure(self.behaviour_id).local():
-            tx_submitter = mech_tx_hex = None
+            tx_submitter = mech_tx_hex = price = None
             if self.n_slots_supported:
                 tx_submitter = self.matching_round.auto_round_id()
                 mech_tx_hex = yield from self._prepare_safe_tx()
+                price = self.price
             agent = self.context.agent_address
-            payload = MultisigTxPayload(agent, tx_submitter, mech_tx_hex)
-
+            payload = RequestPayload(agent, tx_submitter, mech_tx_hex, price)
         yield from self.finish_behaviour(payload)

packages/valory/skills/decision_maker_abci/behaviours/sampling.py

@@ -73,7 +73,7 @@ def _sample(self) -> Tuple[Optional[str], Optional[int]]:
 
         idx = self._sampled_bet_idx(available_bets)
 
-        if self.synchronized_data.bets[idx].usdLiquidityMeasure == 0:
+        if self.synchronized_data.bets[idx].scaledLiquidityMeasure == 0:
             msg = "There were no unprocessed bets with non-zero liquidity!"
             self.context.logger.warning(msg)
             return None, None

packages/valory/skills/decision_maker_abci/payloads.py

@@ -50,6 +50,13 @@ class MultisigTxPayload(BaseTxPayload):
     tx_hash: Optional[str]
 
 
+@dataclass(frozen=True)
+class RequestPayload(MultisigTxPayload):
+    """Represents a transaction payload for preparing an on-chain transaction for a mech request."""
+
+    price: Optional[int]
+
+
 @dataclass(frozen=True)
 class VotingPayload(BaseTxPayload):
     """Represents a transaction payload for voting."""

packages/valory/skills/decision_maker_abci/skill.yaml

@@ -15,25 +15,25 @@ fingerprint:
   behaviours/base.py: bafybeibrqxw7jdslsew226tss3p3s7fhj6rkwz6fig46zgnp54ijyspgly
   behaviours/bet_placement.py: bafybeicdmayxmxvydechibri7z45wrx7n354eny4s5aval5mk2pqdszh64
   behaviours/blacklisting.py: bafybeicvespraci44y2dtddy4wi7cdhjuyk6crjs7ztnssm2rcrovha3hm
-  behaviours/decision_receive.py: bafybeigjct7st66x7n3go5vdp62wtdxgmgw233hyyvd3a63ly4x3ptdqbq
-  behaviours/decision_request.py: bafybeienx5mvflzrgbocqdnqwkyvi3s5xxcgwcaxcrzd2vqazqntn3pyfi
+  behaviours/decision_receive.py: bafybeiagj6ilqz7rfjaqa4b3rtunyhigtxhwkb4auylquq77ltjdczksj4
+  behaviours/decision_request.py: bafybeifjlh5cfitjd6wjcvcgoji2bhsi4r5nzpqocotwprmn26eiphlmqq
   behaviours/handle_failed_tx.py: bafybeidxpc6u575ymct5tdwutvzov6zqfdoio5irgldn3fw7q3lg36mmxm
   behaviours/reedem.py: bafybeians77pl4tc6enkf4vmkzeg4kjjnjugtm5to36ma4z6x4a5hurmuq
   behaviours/round_behaviour.py: bafybeifk5utwuaneima4rdeow7tcpbe6hcc2utlzxcw3w7vsm5zw7zpamm
-  behaviours/sampling.py: bafybeiesza5cols7opbpp3g3ozyqmskl5g6cqdjow4vsq4r7tet2xkyruq
+  behaviours/sampling.py: bafybeiadikynvkaofbko72jc45xthhmmjfmlkpgramormhxwk5u47rnwdu
   dialogues.py: bafybeigpwuzku3we7axmxeamg7vn656maww6emuztau5pg3ebsoquyfdqm
   fsm_specification.yaml: bafybeigrljw66oxyvn5wqecfgkcx7ozkjg7xuv75zcjmo25fft37qyed6y
   handlers.py: bafybeihj33szgrcxnpd73s4nvluyxwwsvhjum2cuq3ilhhe6vfola3k7vy
   models.py: bafybeibyfpucv2e6kltxpjkwobeg3u2ejrceba6cyuecuwbmpv4q7zmu3m
-  payloads.py: bafybeigate7v3haokrquzojwl6ycgf3zosclgjhmiuqhrx3kpbnj6hacte
+  payloads.py: bafybeifbnyviargcj5w5kbuuvc3o4y5sdogtuynd2b4ca4xsfbi3cqcwlm
   redeem_info.py: bafybeie3s7syjr5dfwg33l4663zhkeiokvpulenndwboiyv4imzxr4bdyy
   rounds.py: bafybeihpstybessozkb3hjxhf3gvf323zw4d575ihmxrsuzcyhqtbsruoq
   states/__init__.py: bafybeid23llnyp6j257dluxmrnztugo5llsrog7kua53hllyktz4dqhqoy
-  states/base.py: bafybeigyicytkdcho5l4i6a6b724zv7otwekecvztbf7wvx7zh6crugbny
+  states/base.py: bafybeif42mqu6wu55iyjyqxto3poyta22gdsswgtus55lo4qpmv74wvlmm
   states/bet_placement.py: bafybeibalhxhp2c4oljmiwqi6ds3g36fgtabmf42mb5sgq6z22znrcbhda
   states/blacklisting.py: bafybeiao747i4z7owk6dmwfuzdijag55m3ryj3nowfoggvczpgk3koza44
   states/decision_receive.py: bafybeifm3oyq2aji7f5yag6wpe4vr3ivi74pybdsk2jvmziiidx5nt7t4a
-  states/decision_request.py: bafybeiguje2p3qmqvg6bujf5n7ncr4ss63mviqp4rbnequel37ocuhhvgm
+  states/decision_request.py: bafybeic7otc3hjb753svbmur3yyk6szahc25yii3x4w4vcnpfz6jwvacuu
   states/final_states.py: bafybeidiwhuyd5zm2cq7vhv2owcrxdpm7fnvn3db6p6tql4jz5hgpalflu
   states/handle_failed_tx.py: bafybeihewm2vernvhktuorljdupjqcg2p5vs6wvsira2d62wkoyo5xlzjm
   states/redeem.py: bafybeifl7qgs2xvm4nykloec5tq47sriqah3dzahv3gppvgtrrxzw5yyyq
@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ protocols:
 - valory/contract_api:1.0.0:bafybeiasywsvax45qmugus5kxogejj66c5taen27h4voriodz7rgushtqa
 skills:
 - valory/abstract_round_abci:0.1.0:bafybeif3cqkks5qx3lqi6nwwhebcirhazt2vidw3sueeqsyxvjeszjt3om
-- valory/market_manager_abci:0.1.0:bafybeibwcm2wqoucpbep6pav4fb5mofhjahxiqszul4wcv4xr52dei6pe4
+- valory/market_manager_abci:0.1.0:bafybeih6tmi4blhdqkjgtvqkwbtbky5kzhl57h6ze4rtr3r2rh43pkhvyi
 - valory/transaction_settlement_abci:0.1.0:bafybeiglsnh2hvfau5gab7requh34k4sbqwbjvrhhqjpes4hakcwq46cpi
 behaviours:
   main:

packages/valory/skills/decision_maker_abci/states/base.py

@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@
 """This module contains the base functionality for the rounds of the decision-making abci app."""
 
 from enum import Enum
-from typing import Optional
+from typing import Optional, Tuple
 
 from packages.valory.skills.abstract_round_abci.base import (
     CollectSameUntilThresholdRound,
@@ -70,6 +70,11 @@ def sampled_bet(self) -> Bet:
         """Get the sampled bet."""
         return self.bets[self.sampled_bet_index]
 
+    @property
+    def mech_price(self) -> int:
+        """Get the mech's request price."""
+        return int(self.db.get_strict("mech_price"))
+
     @property
     def vote(self) -> Optional[int]:
         """Get the bet's vote index."""
@@ -115,7 +120,7 @@ class TxPreparationRound(CollectSameUntilThresholdRound):
     done_event = Event.DONE
     none_event = Event.NONE
     no_majority_event = Event.NO_MAJORITY
-    selection_key = (
+    selection_key: Tuple[str, ...] = (
         get_name(SynchronizedData.tx_submitter),
         get_name(SynchronizedData.most_voted_tx_hash),
     )

packages/valory/skills/decision_maker_abci/states/decision_request.py

@@ -19,13 +19,25 @@
 
 """This module contains the decision requesting state of the decision-making abci app."""
 
+from typing import Type
+
+from packages.valory.skills.abstract_round_abci.base import get_name
+from packages.valory.skills.decision_maker_abci.payloads import (
+    MultisigTxPayload,
+    RequestPayload,
+)
 from packages.valory.skills.decision_maker_abci.states.base import (
     Event,
+    SynchronizedData,
     TxPreparationRound,
 )
 
 
 class DecisionRequestRound(TxPreparationRound):
     """A round in which the agents prepare a tx to initiate a request to a mech to determine the answer to a bet."""
 
+    payload_class: Type[MultisigTxPayload] = RequestPayload
+    selection_key = TxPreparationRound.selection_key + (
+        get_name(SynchronizedData.mech_price),
+    )
     none_event = Event.SLOTS_UNSUPPORTED_ERROR