Preconvention assessment

_assets/scripts/insert_aug1.jl

@@ -0,0 +1,98 @@
+using BSON: @save, @load
+using CSV
+using DataFrames
+using LinearAlgebra
+using PrettyTables
+using Printf
+using Serialization
+using Statistics
+using StatsPlots
+using Turing
+
+@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct nov
+
+@enum Pollster begin
+    ag
+    aj
+    am
+    bi2
+    bi3
+    bl2
+    bl3
+    cb2
+    cb3
+    cj
+    cn2
+    cn3
+    ea
+    ec2
+    ec3
+    ep
+    eu
+    fm2
+    fm3
+    fo2
+    fo3
+    hi2
+    hi3
+    hp
+    ia
+    ma2
+    ma3
+    mi2
+    mi3
+    mq
+    mr2
+    mr3
+    ny2
+    ns
+    pp
+    ny
+    qi2
+    qi3
+    rr
+    si2
+    si3
+    sp2
+    sp3
+    su2
+    su3
+    tr
+    wa2
+    wa3
+    ws
+    wsl
+    wss
+    yg
+end
+
+@enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
+
+struct Poll
+    biden_support::Float64
+    trump_support::Float64
+    sample_size::Int64
+end
+
+
+@load "../objs/jul2_polls.bson" months
+
+months[aug1][AZ][ny2] = [Poll(49,45,677)]
+months[aug1][AZ][tr] = [Poll(47,48,1000)]
+months[aug1][GA][ny2] = [Poll(44,51,661)]
+months[aug1][MI][tr] = [Poll(49,47,800)]
+months[aug1][NC][cj] = [Poll(47,44,600)]
+months[aug1][NV][tr] = [Poll(45,49,1000)]
+months[aug1][NV][ny2] = [Poll(42,45,677)]
+months[aug1][PA][ec2] = [Poll(47,47,1000)]
+months[aug1][PA][tr] = [Poll(44,46,1000)]
+months[aug1][PA][qi2] = [Poll(48,45,1738)]
+months[aug1][WI][tr] = [Poll(48,49,800)]
+
+
+
+
+# needs to be done manually rather than with include()
+#@save "../objs/aug1_polls.bson" months
+
+

_assets/scripts/polls.jl

@@ -1,20 +1,22 @@
-@enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
-@enum Month mar apr may jun jul jul2 aug sep oct
+# @enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
+# @enum Month mar apr may jun jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct
 
 
 STATE       = State
-prior_month = "jul"
-mon         = jul2
-MON         = "jul2"
-Mon         = "jul2"
-st          = "AZ"
-ST          =  AZ
+prior_month = "jul2"
+mon         = aug1
+MON         = "aug1"
+Mon         = "aug1"
+st          = "PA"
+ST          =  PA
 
 #include("polls_head.jl")
 prior_poll = BSON.load("../objs/"*"$st"*"_"*"$prior_month"*"_p_sample.bson")
 @load "../objs/"*"$MON"*"_polls.bson" months
+margin  = first(margins[margins.st .== st, :pct])
 
 current_month = remove_empties(months[mon])
+# 
+# include("polls_foot.jl")
 
-include("polls_foot.jl")
 

_assets/scripts/polls_head.jl

@@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ using Turing
     bl3
     cb2
     cb3
+    cj
     cn2
     cn3
     ea
@@ -63,7 +64,7 @@ using Turing
     mr3
     ns
     pp
-    ny
+    ny2
     qi2
     qi3
     rr
@@ -107,7 +108,8 @@ Month_names = Dict(
 	"jun" => "June",
 	"jul" => "July",
 	"jul2" => "July-post",
-	"aug" => "August",
+	"aug1" => "early August",
+	"aug2" => "late August",
 	"sep" => "September",
 	"oct" => "October")
 #------------------------------------------------------------------

az.md

@@ -2,17 +2,7 @@
 title = "Arizona"
 +++
 
-* [July assessmenbt from beginning of Harris campaign](#July-assessment-from-beginning-of-Harris-campaign)
-* [July assessment through end of Biden campaign](#July-assessment-through-end-of-Biden-xcampaign)
-* [June assessment](#June-assessment)
-* [May assessment](#may-assessment)
-* [April assessment](#april-assessment)
-* [March assessment](#march-assessment)
-* [2020 election](#2020-election)
-* [Scenarios](#scenarios)
-* [State facts](#state-facts)
-* [2022 demographics](#2022-demographics)
-* [Terms](#terms)
+\toc
 
 
 # Model results
@@ -27,6 +17,37 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria.
 * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.
 * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.  
 
+## August assessment before convention
+
+Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5012</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5007</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5018</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0001</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_aug1.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+~~~
 ## July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign
 
 Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.

extract_functions.sh

@@ -0,0 +1,42 @@
+#!/bin/bash
+
+# Directory containing .jl files
+directory="/Users/ro/projects/SwingWatch/_assets/scripts"
+
+# Output file to store extracted lines
+output_file="output_file.txt"
+
+# Check if the directory exists
+if [ ! -d "$directory" ]; then
+  echo "Directory does not exist: $directory"
+  exit 1
+fi
+
+# Empty the output file if it already exists
+> "$output_file"
+
+# Function to extract lines from a file
+extract_functions() {
+  local file="$1"
+  local in_function=0
+  while IFS= read -r line; do
+    if [[ $line =~ ^function ]]; then
+      in_function=1
+      echo "$line" >> "$output_file"
+    elif [[ $in_function -eq 1 && $line =~ end$ ]]; then
+      echo "$line" >> "$output_file"
+      echo "" >> "$output_file"  # Add a newline for readability
+      in_function=0
+    elif [[ $in_function -eq 1 ]]; then
+      echo "$line" >> "$output_file"
+    fi
+  done < "$file"
+}
+
+# Export the function to be available in subshells
+export -f extract_functions
+
+# Find .jl files and process each one
+find "$directory" -type f -name '*.jl' -exec bash -c 'extract_functions "$0"' {} \;
+
+echo "Extraction complete. Output stored in: $output_file"

ga.md

@@ -2,19 +2,7 @@
 title = "Georgia"
 +++
 
-* [July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign](#July-assessment-from-beginning-of-Harris-campaign)
-* [July assessment through end of Biden campaign](#July-assessment-through-end-of-Biden-campaign)
-* [June assessment](#june-assessment)
-* [May assessment](#may-assessment)
-* [April assessment](#april-assessment)
-* [March assessment](#march-assessment)
-* [2020 election](#2020-election)
-* [Scenarios](#scenarios)
-* [State facts](#state-facts)
-* [2022 demographics](#2022-demographics)
-* [Runoff rules](#runoff-rules)
-* [Other news](#other-news)
-* [Terms](#terms)
+\toc
 
 In the 2020 election President Harris won 50.12% (0.5012) of the Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes cast for Harris or Trump in Georgia. This leaves out Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Electoral Votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual Winner as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the Winner to create a range of outcomes for that election from 50.08% to 50.16%. Next, the Winners of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis. When the plot shows that more of the credible interval lies to the left of the 2020 margin it indicates that Harris is losing ground compared to the 2020 election Winners, taking the polls at face value.
 
@@ -25,6 +13,38 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria.
 * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.
 * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.
 
+## August assessment before convention
+
+Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.501</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.501</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.501</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5005</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.9999</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/GA_aug1.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+
+~~~
 ## July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign
 
 Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.

index.md

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ title = "Latest"
 
 ## Superseding event
 
-Vice President Harris replaced President President as the nominee of the Democratic Party. The model has been revised to take into account the polls conducted in July prior to July 21, 2024 (when Biden withdrew) as the prior distribution, after introducing some variability to partially account for the added uncertainty introduced by the substitution
+Vice President Harris replaced President Biden as the nominee of the Democratic Party. The model has been revised to take into account the polls conducted in July prior to July 21, 2024 (when Biden withdrew) as the prior distribution, after introducing some variability to partially account for the added uncertainty introduced by the substitution
 
 For polls conducted through the end of the month, the model will be updated and every fortnight thereafter. Consideration will also be given to reassessing swing states, depending on initial results. It is expected that most Blue and Red states will remain as such, but some swing states will move.
 

mi.md

@@ -2,17 +2,7 @@
 title = "Michigan"
 +++
 
-* [July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign](#July-assessment-from-beginning-of-Harris-campaign)
-* [July assessment through end of Biden campaign](#July-assessment-through-end-of-Biden-campaign)
-* [June assessment](#june-assessment)
-* [May assessment](#may-assessment)
-* [April assessment](#april-assessment)
-* [March assessment](#march-assessment)
-* [2020 election](#2020-election)
-* [Scenarios](#scenarios)
-* [State facts](#state-facts)
-* [2022 demographics](#2022-demographics)
-* [Terms](#terms)
+\toc
 
 # Model results
 
@@ -26,6 +16,41 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria.
 * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.
 * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.
 
+## August assessment before convention
+
+Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5139</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5139</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5136</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5134</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5143</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0012</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/MI_aug1.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+
+~~~
+
+
+
 ## July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign
 
 Harris wins under the *Relaxed criterion*