First Harris results

_assets/scripts/insert_jul.jl

@@ -7,102 +7,101 @@ using Statistics
 using StatsPlots
 using Turing
 
-# const DESIGN_ERROR = .
-
-@enum Month mar apr may jul jul aug sep oct nov
+@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug sep oct nov
 
 @enum Pollster begin
     ag
     aj
     am
-    bi
-    bi
-    bl
-    bl
-    cb
-    cb
-    cn
-    cn
+    bi2
+    bi3
+    bl2
+    bl3
+    cb2
+    cb3
+    cn2
+    cn3
     ea
-    ec
-    ec
+    ec2
+    ec3
     ep
     eu
-    fm
-    fm
-    fo
-    fo
-    hi
-    hi
+    fm2
+    fm3
+    fo2
+    fo3
+    hi2
+    hi3
     hp
     ia
-    ma
-    ma
-    mi
-    mi
+    ma2
+    ma3
+    mi2
+    mi3
     mq
-    mr
-    mr
+    mr2
+    mr3
     ns
     pp
     ny
-    qi
-    qi
+    qi2
+    qi3
     rr
-    si
-    si
-    sp
-    sp
-    su
-    su
+    si2
+    si3
+    sp2
+    sp3
+    su2
+    su3
     tr
-    wa
-    wa
+    wa2
+    wa3
     ws
     wsl
     wss
     yg
 end
 
+
 @enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
 
 struct Poll
-    biden_support::Float
-    trump_support::Float
-    sample_size::Int
+    biden_support::Float64
+    trump_support::Float64
+    sample_size::Int64
 end
 
 
 @load "../objs/jun_polls.bson" months
 
-months[jul][AZ][bl] = [Poll(45,48,781)]
-months[jul][AZ][ec] = [Poll(40,50,1000)]
+months[jul][AZ][bl2] = [Poll(45,48,781)]
+months[jul][AZ][ec2] = [Poll(40,50,1000)]
 months[jul][AZ][ia] = [Poll(44,49,800)]
 months[jul][AZ][pp] = [Poll(43,51,596)]
 months[jul][AZ][yg] = [Poll(37,44,900)]
-months[jul][GA][bl] = [Poll(41,43,790)]
-months[jul][GA][ec] = [Poll(48,41,1000)]
-months[jul][GA][ia] = [Poll(42/,48,800)]
+months[jul][GA][bl2] = [Poll(41,43,790)]
+months[jul][GA][ec2] = [Poll(48,41,1000)]
+months[jul][GA][ia] = [Poll(42,48,800)]
 months[jul][GA][yg] = [Poll(40,44,1000)]
-months[jul][MI][bl] = [Poll(45,39,694)]
-months[jul][MI][ec] = [Poll(42,45,1000)]
+months[jul][MI][bl2] = [Poll(45,39,694)]
+months[jul][MI][ec2] = [Poll(42,45,1000)]
 months[jul][MI][ep] = [Poll(36,42,600)]
 months[jul][MI][tr] = [Poll(43,45,1059)]
 months[jul][MI][yg] = [Poll(40,42,1000)]
-months[jul][NC][bl] = [Poll(42,40,696)]
-months[jul][NC][ec] = [Poll(41,48,1000)]
+months[jul][NC][bl2] = [Poll(42,40,696)]
+months[jul][NC][ec2] = [Poll(41,48,1000)]
 months[jul][NC][yg] = [Poll(40,44,1000)]
-months[jul][NV][bl] = [Poll(39,45,452)]
-months[jul][NV][ec] = [Poll(40,56,1000)]
+months[jul][NV][bl2] = [Poll(39,45,452)]
+months[jul][NV][ec2] = [Poll(40,56,1000)]
 months[jul][NV][ia] = [Poll(42,49,800)]
 months[jul][NV][yg] = [Poll(42,46,800)]
-months[jul][PA][bl] = [Poll(44,51,794)]
+months[jul][PA][bl2] = [Poll(44,51,794)]
 months[jul][PA][ia] = [Poll(45,49,800)]
 months[jul][PA][yg] = [Poll(40,43,1000)]
-months[jul][PA][ec] = [Poll(43,48,1000)]
+months[jul][PA][ec2] = [Poll(43,48,1000)]
 months[jul][PA][ny] = [Poll(43,47,1000)]
-months[jul][WI][bl] = [Poll(47,44,695)]
-months[jul][WI][ec] = [Poll(43,48,1000)]
+months[jul][WI][bl2] = [Poll(47,44,695)]
+months[jul][WI][ec2] = [Poll(43,48,1000)]
 months[jul][WI][ia] = [Poll(47,47,546)]
 months[jul][WI][ns] = [Poll(44,46,600)]
 months[jul][WI][yg] = [Poll(39,43,900)]

_assets/scripts/insert_jul2.jl

@@ -0,0 +1,99 @@
+using BSON: @save, @load
+using CSV
+using DataFrames
+using LinearAlgebra
+using PrettyTables
+using Printf
+using Serialization
+using Statistics
+using StatsPlots
+using Turing
+
+@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug sep oct nov
+
+@enum Pollster begin
+    ag
+    aj
+    am
+    bi2
+    bi3
+    bl2
+    bl3
+    cb2
+    cb3
+    cn2
+    cn3
+    ea
+    ec2
+    ec3
+    ep
+    eu
+    fm2
+    fm3
+    fo2
+    fo3
+    hi2
+    hi3
+    hp
+    ia
+    ma2
+    ma3
+    mi2
+    mi3
+    mq
+    mr2
+    mr3
+    ns
+    pp
+    ny
+    qi2
+    qi3
+    rr
+    si2
+    si3
+    sp2
+    sp3
+    su2
+    su3
+    tr
+    wa2
+    wa3
+    ws
+    wsl
+    wss
+    yg
+end
+
+@enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
+
+struct Poll
+    biden_support::Float64
+    trump_support::Float64
+    sample_size::Int64
+end
+
+
+@load "../objs/jul_polls.bson" months
+
+months[jul2][AZ][bl2] = [Poll(48,47,804)]
+months[jul2][AZ][ec2] = [Poll(44,49,800)]
+months[jul2][GA][bl2] = [Poll(47,47,799)]
+months[jul2][GA][ec2] = [Poll(46,48,800)]
+months[jul2][MI][bl2] = [Poll(53,42,706)]
+months[jul2][MI][ec2] = [Poll(45,46,800)]
+months[jul2][MI][fo2] = [Poll(43,45,1012)]
+months[jul2][NC][bl2] = [Poll(46,48,706)]
+months[jul2][NV][bl2] = [Poll(47,45,454)]
+months[jul2][PA][bl2] = [Poll(46,50,804)]
+months[jul2][PA][fo2] = [Poll(45,43,1034)]
+months[jul2][PA][am]  = [Poll(45,47,600)]
+months[jul2][PA][ec2] = [Poll(46,48,850)]
+months[jul2][WI][bl2] = [Poll(49,47,700)]
+months[jul2][WI][ec2] = [Poll(47,47,854)]
+months[jul2][WI][fo2] = [Poll(46,46,1046)]
+
+
+# needs to be done manually rather than with include()
+#@save "../objs/jul2_polls.bson" months
+
+

_assets/scripts/insert_jul_pre.jl

@@ -7,9 +7,7 @@ using Statistics
 using StatsPlots
 using Turing
 
-# const DESIGN_ERROR = .
-
-@enum Month mar apr may jun   jul aug sep oct nov
+@enum Month mar apr may jun jul jul2 aug sep oct nov
 
 @enum Pollster begin
     ag
@@ -109,6 +107,6 @@ months[jul][WI][yg] = [Poll(39,43,900)]
 
 
 # needs to be done manually rather than with include()
-#@save "../objs/jul_pre_polls.bson" months
+@save "../objs/jul_polls.bson" months
 
 

_assets/scripts/polls.jl

@@ -1,18 +1,18 @@
 @enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
-@enum Month mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct
+@enum Month mar apr may jun jul jul2 aug sep oct
 
 
 STATE       = State
-prior_month = "jun"
-mon         = jul
-MON         = "jul"
-Mon         = "jul"
-st          = "NV"
-ST          =  NV
+prior_month = "jul"
+mon         = jul2
+MON         = "jul2"
+Mon         = "jul2"
+st          = "AZ"
+ST          =  AZ
 
-include("polls_head.jl")
+#include("polls_head.jl")
 prior_poll = BSON.load("../objs/"*"$st"*"_"*"$prior_month"*"_p_sample.bson")
-@load "../objs/"*"$MON"*"_pre_polls.bson" months
+@load "../objs/"*"$MON"*"_polls.bson" months
 
 current_month = remove_empties(months[mon])
 

_assets/scripts/polls_head.jl

@@ -20,6 +20,10 @@ using Serialization
 using Statistics
 using StatsPlots
 using Turing
+
+
+
+
 #------------------------------------------------------------------
 
 
@@ -93,7 +97,7 @@ end
 struct Poll
     biden_support::Float64
     trump_support::Float64
-    sample_size::Int
+    sample_size::Int64
 end
 #------------------------------------------------------------------
 Month_names = Dict(
@@ -102,12 +106,13 @@ Month_names = Dict(
 	"may" => "May",
 	"jun" => "June",
 	"jul" => "July",
+	"jul2" => "July-post",
 	"aug" => "August",
 	"sep" => "September",
 	"oct" => "October")
 #------------------------------------------------------------------
 margins = CSV.read("../objs/margins.csv", DataFrame)
-margin = first(margins[margins.st .== st, :pct])
+margin  = first(margins[margins.st .== st, :pct])
 #------------------------------------------------------------------
 """
     filter_empty_entries(dict::Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}) -> Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}
@@ -197,7 +202,7 @@ function draw_density()
     fig = Figure(size = (600, 400))
 
     # Add an axis to the figure
-    ax = Axis(fig[1, 1], xlabel = "Likelihood of Biden win", ylabel = "Number of draws", title = "Model: Biden results in $ST from 2020 election and polling through " * Month_names[Mon])
+    ax = Axis(fig[1, 1], xlabel = "Likelihood of Harris win", ylabel = "Number of draws", title = "Model: Harris results in $ST from 2020 election and polling through " * Month_names[Mon])
 
     # Plot the full density curve
     lines!(ax, kde_result.x, kde_result.density, color = "#a3b35c", linewidth = 3, strokewidth = 4, strokecolor = GREENBAR, label = "Draws")