Issue/adjuster minutes

india_forecast_app/adjuster.py

@@ -45,6 +45,7 @@ def get_me_values(
     site_uuid: str,
     start_datetime: Optional[datetime] = None,
     ml_model_name: Optional[str] = None,
+    average_minutes: Optional[int] = 60,
 ) -> pd.DataFrame:
     """
     Get the ME values for the last 7 days for a given hour, for a given hour creation time
@@ -55,15 +56,22 @@ def get_me_values(
     start_datetime:: the start datetime to filter on. This defaults to 7 days before now.
     session: sqlalchemy session
     ml_model_name: the name of the model to filter on, this is optional.
+    average_minutes: the average minutes for the adjuster to group results by, this defaults to 60.
+        For solar data this should be 15, because of the sunrise and sunset,
+        for wind data this should be 60.
     """
 
+    assert average_minutes <= 60, "Average minutes for adjuster should be <= 60"
+
     if start_datetime is None:
         start_datetime = datetime.now() - timedelta(days=7)
 
     query = session.query(
         func.avg(ForecastValueSQL.forecast_power_kw - GenerationSQL.generation_power_kw),
         # create hour column
-        (cast(ForecastValueSQL.horizon_minutes / 60, INT)).label("horizon_hour"),
+        (cast(ForecastValueSQL.horizon_minutes / average_minutes, INT)).label(
+            "horizon_div_average_minutes"
+        ),
     )
 
     # join
@@ -72,8 +80,8 @@ def get_me_values(
     # round Generation start_utc and join to forecast start_utc
     start_utc_minute_rounded = (
         cast(func.date_part("minute", GenerationSQL.start_utc), INT)
-        / 30
-        * text("interval '30 min'")
+        / 15
+        * text("interval '15 min'")
     )
     start_utc_hour = func.date_trunc("hour", GenerationSQL.start_utc)
     generation_start_utc = start_utc_hour + start_utc_minute_rounded
@@ -95,18 +103,18 @@ def get_me_values(
         query = query.filter(MLModelSQL.name == ml_model_name)
 
     # group by forecast horizon
-    query = query.group_by('horizon_hour')
+    query = query.group_by("horizon_div_average_minutes")
 
     # order by forecast horizon
-    query = query.order_by('horizon_hour')
+    query = query.order_by("horizon_div_average_minutes")
 
     me = query.all()
 
-    me_df = pd.DataFrame(me, columns=["me_kw", "horizon_hour"])
-    me_df["horizon_minutes"] = me_df["horizon_hour"] * 60
+    me_df = pd.DataFrame(me, columns=["me_kw", "horizon_div_average_minutes"])
+    me_df["horizon_minutes"] = me_df["horizon_div_average_minutes"] * average_minutes
 
     # drop the hour column
-    me_df.drop(columns=["horizon_hour"], inplace=True)
+    me_df.drop(columns=["horizon_div_average_minutes"], inplace=True)
 
     if len(me_df) == 0:
         return me_df
@@ -115,19 +123,28 @@ def get_me_values(
     # currently in 0, 60, 120,...
     # change to 0, 15, 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105, 120, ...
     me_df = me_df.set_index("horizon_minutes")
-    me_df = me_df.reindex(range(0, max(me_df.index)+15, 15)).interpolate(limit=3)
+    me_df = me_df.reindex(range(0, max(me_df.index) + 15, 15)).interpolate(limit=3)
 
     # reset index
     me_df = me_df.reset_index()
 
+    # smooth by a few blocks, 30 minutes hour either side, and keep 0 values 0
+    idx = me_df["me_kw"] == 0
+    me_df["me_kw"] = me_df["me_kw"].rolling(window=5, min_periods=1, center=True).mean()
+    me_df.loc[idx, "me_kw"] = 0
+
     # log the maximum and minimum adjuster results
     log.info(f"ME results: max={me_df['me_kw'].max()}, min={me_df['me_kw'].min()}")
 
     return me_df
 
 
 def adjust_forecast_with_adjuster(
-    db_session, forecast_meta: dict, forecast_values_df: pd.DataFrame, ml_model_name: str
+    db_session,
+    forecast_meta: dict,
+    forecast_values_df: pd.DataFrame,
+    ml_model_name: str,
+    average_minutes: Optional[int] = 60,
 ):
     """
     Adjust forecast values with ME values
@@ -137,6 +154,7 @@ def adjust_forecast_with_adjuster(
     forecast_meta: forecast metadata
     forecast_values_df: forecast values dataframe
     ml_model_name: the ml model name
+    average_minutes: the average minutes for the adjuster to group results by, this defaults to 60.
 
     """
     # get the ME values
@@ -145,6 +163,7 @@ def adjust_forecast_with_adjuster(
         forecast_meta["timestamp_utc"].hour,
         site_uuid=forecast_meta["site_uuid"],
         ml_model_name=ml_model_name,
+        average_minutes=average_minutes,
     )
     log.debug(f"ME values: {me_values}")
 
@@ -173,6 +192,7 @@ def adjust_forecast_with_adjuster(
     forecast_values_df_adjust["me_kw"].fillna(0, inplace=True)
 
     # adjust forecast_power_kw by ME values
+    log.info(forecast_values_df_adjust["me_kw"])
     forecast_values_df_adjust["forecast_power_kw"] = (
         forecast_values_df_adjust["forecast_power_kw"] - forecast_values_df_adjust["me_kw"]
     )

india_forecast_app/app.py

@@ -206,6 +206,7 @@ def save_forecast(
     ml_model_name: Optional[str] = None,
     ml_model_version: Optional[str] = None,
     use_adjuster: bool = True,
+    adjuster_average_minutes: Optional[int] = 60,
 ):
     """
     Saves a forecast for a given site & timestamp
@@ -217,6 +218,8 @@ def save_forecast(
             ml_model_name: Name of the ML model used for the forecast
             ml_model_version: Version of the ML model used for the forecast
             use_adjuster: Make new model, adjusted by last 7 days of ME values
+            adjuster_average_minutes: The number of minutes that results are average over
+                when calculating adjuster values
 
     Raises:
             IOError: An error if database save fails
@@ -244,7 +247,11 @@ def save_forecast(
     if use_adjuster:
         log.info(f"Adjusting forecast for site_id={forecast_meta['site_uuid']}...")
         forecast_values_df_adjust = adjust_forecast_with_adjuster(
-            db_session, forecast_meta, forecast_values_df, ml_model_name=ml_model_name
+            db_session,
+            forecast_meta,
+            forecast_values_df,
+            ml_model_name=ml_model_name,
+            average_minutes=adjuster_average_minutes,
         )
 
         log.info(forecast_values_df_adjust)
@@ -386,11 +393,14 @@ def app_run(timestamp: dt.datetime | None, write_to_db: bool = False, log_level:
                         write_to_db=write_to_db,
                         ml_model_name=ml_model.name,
                         ml_model_version=version,
+                        adjuster_average_minutes=model_config.adjuster_average_minutes,
                     )
                     successful_runs += 1
 
-        log.info(f"Completed forecasts for {successful_runs} runs for "
-                 f"{runs} model runs. This was for {len(sites)} sites")
+        log.info(
+            f"Completed forecasts for {successful_runs} runs for "
+            f"{runs} model runs. This was for {len(sites)} sites"
+        )
         if successful_runs == runs:
             log.info("All forecasts completed successfully")
         elif 0 < successful_runs < runs:

india_forecast_app/models/all_models.yaml

@@ -39,6 +39,7 @@ models:
     version: 20e7c3af76664ee2ac0e1502801749825ab8ed1f
     client: ad
     asset_type: pv
+    adjuster_average_minutes: 15
   # this is just a dummy one
   - name: dummy
     type: dummy

india_forecast_app/models/pydantic_models.py

@@ -28,6 +28,14 @@ class Model(BaseModel):
     asset_type: str = Field(
         "pv", title="Asset Type", description="The type of asset the model is for (pv or wind)"
     )
+    adjuster_average_minutes: int = Field(
+        60,
+        title="Average Minutes",
+        description="The number of minutes that results are average over when "
+                    "calculating adjuster values. "
+                    "For solar site with regular data, 15 should be used. "
+                    "For wind sites, 60 minutes should be used.",
+    )
 
 
 class Models(BaseModel):

tests/test_adjuster.py

@@ -25,6 +25,29 @@ def test_get_me_values(db_session, sites, generation_db_values, forecasts):
     assert me_df["me_kw"].sum() != 0
     assert me_df["horizon_minutes"][0] == 0
     assert me_df["horizon_minutes"][1] == 15
+    assert me_df["me_kw"][90] != 0
+
+
+def test_get_me_values_15(db_session, sites, generation_db_values, forecasts):
+    """Check ME results are found"""
+
+    hour = pd.Timestamp(datetime.now()).hour
+    me_df_15 = get_me_values(
+        db_session, hour, site_uuid=sites[0].site_uuid, ml_model_name="test", average_minutes=15
+    )
+    me_df_60 = get_me_values(
+        db_session, hour, site_uuid=sites[0].site_uuid, ml_model_name="test", average_minutes=60
+    )
+
+    assert len(me_df_15) != 0
+    assert len(me_df_15) == 96
+    assert me_df_15["me_kw"].sum() != 0
+    assert me_df_15["horizon_minutes"][0] == 0
+    assert me_df_15["horizon_minutes"][1] == 15
+
+    # make sure the 15 and 60 are differnet values
+    assert me_df_15["horizon_minutes"][90] == me_df_60["horizon_minutes"][90]
+    assert me_df_15["me_kw"][90] != me_df_60["me_kw"][90]
 
 
 def test_get_me_values_no_generation(db_session, sites, forecasts):