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Merge pull request boknows#57 Context sensitive help
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Complete implementation for Issue boknows#28: Context sensitive help (3rd try)
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alistair-marshall authored Jun 22, 2020
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17 changes: 17 additions & 0 deletions help/rebalance.html
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<p>These are a selection of strategies that can be used to adjust the allocation over
time.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>None</b> Your portfolio will drift to different percentages depending on how each asset class performs.</li>
<li><b>Constant</b> Your portfolio will automatically rebalance each year to match your initially chosen asset
allocation.</li>
<li><b>Glide Path</b> You will choose a target allocation that is different from your initial one (For example, you
want to go from 80%/20% stocks/bonds to 60%/40% stocks and bonds in retirement). You will then choose a "Start
Year" and "End Year" to execute this allocation change. Your allocation will slowly change to the target
allocation over the course of those years.</li>
<li><b>Bonds First</b> Annual spending is taken from the bonds portion, leaving the equities portion allone, until
all the bonds have been used up. Then the equities are spent. The actual order is Cash > Gold > Bonds >
Equities.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://daveleemn.tripod.com/omega_strategy.htm">OmegaNot</a></b> Annual spending is taken from the
equities portion as long as the equities are worth as much as or better than their initial inflation adjusted
value. Otherwise the spending is taken from the bonds/gold/cash portion.</li>
</ul>
77 changes: 77 additions & 0 deletions help/withdrawal.html
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<p>There are MANY withdrawal strategies out there, and
cFIREsim attempts to capture just a few of the more popular ones. If you have a suggestion for
a withdrawal strategy that should be implemented in cFIREsim please <a
href="https://github.com/alistair-marshall/cFIREsim-open/issues/new/choose">open an issue</a>
on GitHub and describe your idea.</p>
<ul>
<li><b>Inflation Adjusted:</b> This increases your spending each year by the amount of inflation
indicated in the Inflation Assumptions section on the sidebar. This means that your
"spending power" remains the same throughout retirement. By default, Inflation Assumptions
is set to use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for it's calculations, which is the generally
accepted rule-of-thumb for inflation.</li>
<li><b>Not Inflation Adjusted:</b> This leaves your spending at the same value as you put in the
Yearly Spending input. This means that as the prices of goods gets higher and higher, your
spending will never go up to match that price increase.</li>
<li><b>% of Portfolio:</b> This calculates your spending each year based on the value of your
portfolio. The default option is a Constant % which means that it will take that same
percentage out of your portfolio each year (in nominal dollars), regardless of market
conditions. If you choose Floor and Ceiling Values, you will be given the option to set
limits to the yearly spending calculation. These floor/ceiling values are based on
inflation-adjusted (according to your Inflation Assumptions in the sidebar) percentages of
the initial portfolio at retirement. Example: With $1M portfolio, you can specify a 4%
nominal withdrawal rate, with a 3.5% floor and 5% ceiling. This means that with
market/inflation fluctuations, your spending will never dip below $35k/yr
(inflation-adjusted) and never go above $50k/yr (inflation-adjusted). Another option for the
Floor Spending is % of Previous Year. This is based on Robert Clyatt's 95% rule, but gives
you the freedom to choose the value. This option states that if the market dips enough to
cause your yearly spending to dip, it will never be less than 95% (or whatever you enter) of
the previous year's spending value. This limits wild fluctuations. (Example: $1M Portfolio,
4% spending, floor of 95% previous year. If in year 2, your portfolio drops to $800k, 4%
would only be $32,000 in spending. However, the floor rule would set your spending to no
less than $40,000 * 95% = $38,000).</li>
<li><b>Hebeler Autopilot Method:</b> is based on <a
href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/put-retirement-savings-withdrawals-on-autopilot-2013-07-24">Henry
Hebeler's Autopilot Method Article</a>. This Method is a blend between "Inflation
Adjusted Spending" and the Required Minimum Distribution Method (RMD). This method provides
an inflation-adjusted spending that also corresponds to your longevity expectation. Your Age
at Retirement input helps to determine your RMD calculations. The final yearly spending is
an average between the 2 methods, and you can choose the weight that each method has on your
spending calculations by changing the percentage values.</li>
<li><b>Variable Spending:</b> allows for small deviations in spending within those values when
the market dictates it. The Z-value determines how much your spending changes during the
market changes. The method then tracks an inflation-adjusted version of your Spending
amount. Example: If your portfolio is up 10%, Z-value is 0.5, and Spending was $40k, your
new spending is now (1+(10% * 0.5)) * $40k = (1.05)*40k = $42000. Example2: If your
portfolio then is down 25%, Z-value is still 0.5, Spending was $42000, your new spending is
now (1-(25% * 0.5)) * $42k = (0.875)*42000 = your $36750. So, the z-value just provides a
value of how much your spending reacts to your portfolio health. If the Z-value is lower,
your spending swings less. If it is higher, it swings more. Add in the universal Spending
Floor/Ceiling for guardrails, and you've got yourself a pretty good spending method.</li>
<li><b>Guyton-Klinger Method:</b> This method is a hybrid of adjusting your spending by
inflation and the 4% rule, with additional rules regarding bull/bear markets. It was
developed by a pair of economists (Guyton and Klinger). <a
href="http://www.schulmerichandassoc.homestead.com/using_decision_rules_to_create_retirement_withdrawal_profiles.pdf">Please
read their paper on the method before using this option.</a> It properly defines the
rules of the withdrawals. Note: The Guyton-Klinger "Initial Withdrawal Rate" is based on
your Yearly Spending Input and the amount of your portfolio at the time of retirement, not a
static %.</li>
<li><b>VPW Method:</b> A mix of the constant-dollar and constant-percentage methods, with the
goal of spending down your nest-egg nearly completely before the end. <a
href="https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=120430">Proposed and
developed by longinvest on the Bogleheads Forums.</a> Your yearly spending is entirely
calculated based on your portfolio at retirement and the number of years that you're in
retirement, along with some factors of asset allocation.</li>
<li><b>Variable CAPE Method:</b> <a
href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclically_adjusted_price-to-earnings_ratio">CAPE
(Cyclically-adjusted price-to-earning ratio)</a> is a valuation measure usually applied
to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years
of earnings (moving average), adjusted for inflation. The CAPE method adjusts your
retirement based on this valuation of the market (spending more in the boom times, and less
in the down times). Example for how spending is calculated in a given year: Spending will
always equal (spendingRate = currentCAPEYield * multiplier + constantAdjustment). If we're
in a year where the CAPE is 17.48, currentCAPEYield will equal 1/17.48 or 0.0572. If you
kept the the defaults inputs, the "constantAdjustment" would equal 1/100 or .01. So, for
that given year, your spending rate would be adjusted to 0.0572 * 0.5 + .01 = 0.0386 (or
3.86% withdrawal rate). So if your portfolio happened to be $1M at the time, you'd withdraw
$38,600.</li>
</ul>
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