recovery point

technocrat · May 27, 2024 · f3f813c · f3f813c
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diff --git a/_assets/scripts/polls_foot.jl b/_assets/scripts/polls_foot.jl
@@ -17,12 +17,21 @@ prior_alpha    = posterior_mean * (posterior_mean * (1 - posterior_mean) / poste
 prior_beta     = (1 - posterior_mean) * (posterior_mean * (1 - posterior_mean) / posterior_var - 1)
 prior_dist     = Beta(prior_alpha, prior_beta)
 
+# @model function poll_model(num_votes::Int64, num_wins::Int64)
+#     # Define the prior using the Beta distribution
+#     p ~ prior_dist
+# 
+#     # Define the likelihood
+#     num_wins ~ Binomial(num_votes, p)
+# end
+
 @model function poll_model(num_votes::Int64, num_wins::Int64)
     # Define the prior using the Beta distribution
-    p ~ prior_dist
+    p ~ Beta(2, 2)
 
-    # Define the likelihood
-    num_wins ~ Binomial(num_votes, p)
+    # Define the likelihood with additional uncertainty
+    p_survey ~ Beta(2, 2)
+    num_wins ~ Binomial(num_votes, p * p_survey)
 end
 
 # Set up the sampler

diff --git a/sources.md b/sources.md
@@ -40,18 +40,24 @@ df = CSV.read(IOBuffer(csv_data), DataFrame)
 *Multistate*
 
   - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted April](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/04/Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-7.pdf)
+  - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted May](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/05/Bloomberg-Election-Tracking-Wave-8-Toplines-Crosstabs.pdf)
   - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted March](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/03/Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-6.pdf) 
   - [Emerson College: conducted April](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/trump-holds-edge-over-biden-in-seven-key-swing-state-polls/)
   - [Emerson College: conducted March](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/category/state-poll/)
+  - [New York Times/Sienna: conducted May](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html)
   - [Wall Street Journal: conducted March ]((https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Swing_States_Partial_March_2024.pdf))
 
 ---
 
 *Single State*
 
 * Arizona
+  - [Cook Political Report: conducted May](https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/23May2024-toplines)
   - [Fox News: conducted March](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/03/Fox_March-7-11-2024_Arizona_Topline_March-13-Release.pdf)
+  - [CBS: conducted May](https://www.scribd.com/document/733845819/cbsnews-20240519-AZ-1-SUN#1fullscreen=1)
+  - [Nobel Predictive Insights: conducted May](https://www.scribd.com/document/733845819/cbsnews-20240519-AZ-1-SUN#1fullscreen=1)
 * Georgia
+  - [Cook Political Report; conducted May](https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/2024-swing-state-project/unique-election-driven-traditional-issue)
   - [Fox News: conducted April](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/04/Fox_April-11-16-2024_GEORGIA_Topline_April-18-Release-1.pdf)
 * Michigan
   - [CBS: conducted in April](https://www.scribd.com/document/727317994/Cbsnews-20240428-MI-SUN)
@@ -64,14 +70,16 @@ df = CSV.read(IOBuffer(csv_data), DataFrame)
   - [Franklin & Marshall College Poll: conducted March](https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-april-2024)
 * North Carolina
   -  [Marist: conducted March ](https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Marist-Poll_North-Carolina-NOS-and-Tables_202403181357.pdf)
-  - [Highpoint University: conducted March](https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/102memo.pdf)\
+  - [Highpoint University: conducted March](https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/102memo.pdf)
+  - [Highpoint University: conducted May](https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/103memo.pdf)
   - [Mason-Dixon: conducted April](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4603458-trump-leads-biden-in-north-carolina-poll/)
   - [Quinnipiac: conducted April](https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nc/nc04102024_ncaa99.pdf)
   - [WRAL: conducted March](https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2024/03/12/21325738/3247050-Poll_Report_-_PollPrint-DMID1-628w54pob.pdf)
 * Wisconsin
   - [CBS: conducted April](https://www.scribd.com/document/727319278/Cbsnews-20240428-WI-SUN)
   - [Fox News: conducted April](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/04/b002d3b3-Fox_April-11-16-2024_WISCONSIN_Topline_April-18-Release.pdf)
   - [Quinnipiac conducted May](https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/wi/wi05082024_wizz76.pdf)
+
 ---
 [^3]: Results selected for analysis here are for two-way preference questions if asked, except in cases in which a third-party candidate qualified for the ballot prior to poll. For polls with only multiple choices in addition to Biden and Trump, their respective percentages of responses were recorded. In all cases those percentages were normalized to 100% to reflect the relative, not absolute, support of the two candidates.
 ---