polling through end August

12th.md

@@ -3,27 +3,19 @@ title = "Twelfth Amendment"
 tags = ["tag1", "tag2"]
 +++
 
-## Tie scenario
+## Tie scenarios
 
-If **Vice President Harris wins only Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin** the outcome will be a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. This assumes that Harris does not win Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona or Nevada, each of which Trump wins. Otherwise, every remaining state is won by the candidate who won it in 2020. 
+**Vice President Harris ties in three scenarios**, and the outcome will be a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. This assumes that Harris does not win any other swing state, each of which Trump wins. Otherwise, every remaining state is won by the party that won it in 2020. 
+
+* NV, WI, AZ and GA	
+* NV, WI, AZ and NC
+* AZ, GA and NC	
 
 ## Without the Nebraska Second
 
 The models assume that except for the seven swing states, each candidate will win the states and election districts won in 2020. For Harris, the total includes a Nebraska
 district that centers on Omaha. Nebraska is one of two states that have this arrangement. The other is Maine. An attempt was made earlier this year to change Nebraska to the winner-take-all system used by other states. It was unsuccessful, and it is not clear if another attempt will be made. It could be added to a special session anticipated for July to deal with property tax relief, but as of mid-June there has been a scarcity of news raising this. There also appears to be some internecine conflict going on between the Congressional delegation and the MAGA-aligned party apparatus.  Should winner take all be implemented or if the Nebraska Second this time votes for Trump, possible outcomes differ.
 
-A tie outcome that was produced by Harris winning only Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, now has three different possible scenarios
-
-* Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania
-* Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina (through May, NC is not moving in Harris's direction)
-* Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania
-
-Those three scenarios, which were formally wins, are replaced as the smallest possible victories by
-
-* Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania
-* Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania
-* Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
-
 ## Constitutional framework for a tied vote
 
 > The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the **votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote**; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and **a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice**.

_assets/scripts/commons.jl

@@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ struct Poll
 end
 #------------------------------------------------------------------
 """
-    filter_empty_entries(dict::Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}) -> Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}
+    remove_empty_entries(dict::Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}) -> Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}
 
 Filter out entries in a dictionary where the values are empty vectors.
 
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ Filter out entries in a dictionary where the values are empty vectors.
 - `Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}`: A new dictionary containing only the entries from the input dictionary where the vectors are not empty.
 
 # Description
-The `filter_empty_entries` function iterates over each key-value pair in the provided dictionary. It constructs a new dictionary that includes only those entries where the value (a vector of `Poll` objects) is not empty.
+The `remove_empty_entries` function iterates over each key-value pair in the provided dictionary. It constructs a new dictionary that includes only those entries where the value (a vector of `Poll` objects) is not empty.
 
 # Example
 ```julia
@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ dict = Dict(
 )
 
 # Filter out entries with empty vectors
-filtered_dict = filter_empty_entries(dict)
+filtered_dict = remove_entries(dict)
 println(filtered_dict)
 # Output:
 # Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}} with 1 entry:

_assets/scripts/insert_aug1.jl

@@ -93,6 +93,6 @@ months[aug1][WI][tr] = [Poll(48,49,800)]
 
 
 # needs to be done manually rather than with include()
-#@save "../objs/aug1_polls.bson" months
+@save "../objs/aug1_polls.bson" months
 
 

_assets/scripts/insert_aug2.jl

@@ -0,0 +1,112 @@
+using BSON: @save, @load
+using CSV
+using DataFrames
+using LinearAlgebra
+using PrettyTables
+using Printf
+using Serialization
+using Statistics
+using StatsPlots
+using Turing
+
+@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct nov
+
+@enum Pollster begin
+    ag
+    aj
+    am
+    bi2
+    bi3
+    bl2
+    bl3
+    cb2
+    cb3
+    cj
+    cn2
+    cn3
+    ea
+    ec2
+    ec3
+    ep
+    eu
+    fm2
+    fm3
+    fo2
+    fo3
+    hi2
+    hi3
+    hp
+    ia
+    ma2
+    ma3
+    mi2
+    mi3
+    mq
+    mr2
+    mr3
+    ny2
+    ns
+    pp
+    ny
+    qi2
+    qi3
+    rr
+    si2
+    si3
+    sp2
+    sp3
+    su2
+    su3
+    tr
+    wa2
+    wa3
+    ws
+    wsl
+    wss
+    yg
+end
+
+@enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
+
+struct Poll
+    harris_support::Float64
+    trump_support::Float64
+    sample_size::Int64
+end
+
+
+@load "../objs/aug1_polls.bson" months
+
+months[aug2][AZ][bl2] = [Poll(48,48,805)]
+months[aug2][AZ][ec2] = [Poll(47,50,720)]
+months[aug2][AZ][fo2] = [Poll(50,49,1014)]
+months[aug2][AZ][ia]  = [Poll(48,49,800)]
+months[aug2][AZ][cn2] = [Poll(44,49,800)]
+months[aug2][GA][bl2] = [Poll(49,47,801)]
+months[aug2][GA][ec2] = [Poll(49,48,800)]
+months[aug2][GA][fo2] = [Poll(49,49,1014)]
+months[aug2][GA][ia]  = [Poll(48,48,800)]
+months[aug2][MI][bl2] = [Poll(49,46,702)]
+months[aug2][MI][ec2] = [Poll(50,47,800)]
+months[aug2][MI][ep]  = [Poll(44,44,600)]
+months[aug2][MI][tr]  = [Poll(47,47,1089)]
+months[aug2][NC][bl2] = [Poll(50,45,803)]
+months[aug2][NC][ec2] = [Poll(48,49,775)]
+months[aug2][NC][eu]  = [Poll(47,48,720)]
+months[aug2][NC][fo2] = [Poll(49,50,999)]
+months[aug2][NC][ia]  = [Poll(48,49,800)]
+months[aug2][NV][bl2] = [Poll(49,45,700)]
+months[aug2][NV][ec2] = [Poll(49,48,1168)]
+months[aug2][NV][fo2] = [Poll(50,48,1026)]
+months[aug2][NV][ia]  = [Poll(47,48,800)]
+months[aug2][PA][bl2] = [Poll(51,47,803)]
+months[aug2][PA][ec2] = [Poll(48,48,950)]
+months[aug2][PA][tr]  = [Poll(45,47,1087)]
+months[aug2][WI][tr]  = [Poll(46,47,1083)]
+
+
+
+# needs to be done manually rather than with include()
+#@save "../objs/aug2_polls.bson" months # comes out empty
+
+

_assets/scripts/insert_jul2.jl

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ using Statistics
 using StatsPlots
 using Turing
 
-@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug sep oct nov
+@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct nov
 
 @enum Pollster begin
     ag
@@ -92,8 +92,7 @@ months[jul2][WI][bl2] = [Poll(49,47,700)]
 months[jul2][WI][ec2] = [Poll(47,47,854)]
 months[jul2][WI][fo2] = [Poll(46,46,1046)]
 
-
 # needs to be done manually rather than with include()
-#@save "../objs/jul2_polls.bson" months
+@save "../objs/jul2_polls.bson" months
 
 

_assets/scripts/polls.jl

@@ -1,22 +1,22 @@
-# @enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
-# @enum Month mar apr may jun jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct
+#@enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
+#@enum Month mar apr may jun jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct
 
 
 STATE       = State
-prior_month = "jul2"
-mon         = aug1
-MON         = "aug1"
-Mon         = "aug1"
-st          = "NC"
-ST          =  NC
+prior_month = "aug1"
+mon         = aug2
+MON         = "aug2"
+Mon         = "aug2"
+st          = "PA"
+ST          =  PA
 
-#include("polls_head.jl")
+# include("polls_head.jl")
 prior_poll = BSON.load("../objs/"*"$st"*"_"*"$prior_month"*"_p_sample.bson")
-@load "../objs/"*"$MON"*"_polls.bson" months
+#@load "../objs/"*"$MON"*"_polls.bson" months # comes up empty
 margin  = first(margins[margins.st .== st, :pct])
 
 current_month = remove_empties(months[mon])
 # 
-# include("polls_foot.jl")
+include("polls_foot.jl")
 
 

_assets/scripts/polls_foot.jl

@@ -26,9 +26,14 @@ poll_posterior         = prior_poll
 posterior_mean         = mean(poll_posterior[:deep][:p])
 posterior_var          =  var(poll_posterior[:deep][:p])
 prior_alpha            = posterior_mean * 
-                        (posterior_mean * (1 - posterior_mean) / posterior_var - 1)
-prior_beta             = (1 - posterior_mean) * (posterior_mean *
-                         (1 - posterior_mean) / posterior_var - 1)
+                        (posterior_mean * 
+                        (1 - posterior_mean) / 
+                         posterior_var - 1)
+prior_beta             = (1 - posterior_mean) * 
+                         (posterior_mean *
+                         (1 - posterior_mean) / 
+                         posterior_var - 1)
+
 prior_dist             = Beta(prior_alpha, prior_beta)
 
 model                  = poll_model(num_votes, num_wins, prior_dist)

_assets/scripts/polls_head.jl

@@ -96,7 +96,7 @@ mutable struct MetaFrame
 end
 #------------------------------------------------------------------
 struct Poll
-    biden_support::Float64
+    harris_support::Float64
     trump_support::Float64
     sample_size::Int64
 end
@@ -117,7 +117,7 @@ margins = CSV.read("../objs/margins.csv", DataFrame)
 margin  = first(margins[margins.st .== st, :pct])
 #------------------------------------------------------------------
 """
-    filter_empty_entries(dict::Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}) -> Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}
+filter_empty_entries(dict::Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}) -> Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}
 
 Filter out entries in a dictionary where the values are empty vectors.
 
@@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ function remove_empties(the_month::Dict)
 end
 #------------------------------------------------------------------
 function process_polls(polls::Vector{Poll})
-    result = Int64.(collect(collect([(p.biden_support, p.sample_size) for p in polls])[1]))
+    result = Int64.(collect(collect([(p.harris_support, p.sample_size) for p in polls])[1]))
     return [Int64(floor(result[1] / 100 * result[2])), result[2]]
 end
 #------------------------------------------------------------------

az.md

@@ -17,7 +17,8 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria.
 * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.
 * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.  
 
-## August assessment before convention
+
+## August assessment after convention
 
 Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
 
@@ -36,13 +37,46 @@ Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
   </thead>
   <tbody>
     <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5012</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5012</td>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
-      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5007</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5017</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0024</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_aug2.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+
+~~~
+## August assessment before convention
+
+Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5012</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5012</td>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5012</td>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5007</td>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5018</td>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
-      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0001</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0</td>
     </tr>
   </tbody>
 </table>
@@ -69,11 +103,11 @@ Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
     <tr>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
-      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5012</td>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5007</td>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5018</td>
       <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
-      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0004</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0</td>
     </tr>
   </tbody>
 </table>

ga.md

@@ -13,6 +13,39 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria.
 * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.
 * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.
 
+## August assessment after convention
+
+Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5009</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5009</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5009</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5005</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/GA_aug2.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+
+~~~
+
 ## August assessment before convention
 
 Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.