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diff --git a/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug1.png b/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug2.png b/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/AZ_sep1.png b/_assets/img/models/AZ_sep1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/GA_aug1.png b/_assets/img/models/GA_aug1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/GA_aug2.png b/_assets/img/models/GA_aug2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/GA_sep1.png b/_assets/img/models/GA_sep1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/MI_aug1.png b/_assets/img/models/MI_aug1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/MI_aug2.png b/_assets/img/models/MI_aug2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/NC_aug1.png b/_assets/img/models/NC_aug1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/NC_aug2.png b/_assets/img/models/NC_aug2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/NC_sep1.png b/_assets/img/models/NC_sep1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/NV_aug1.png b/_assets/img/models/NV_aug1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/NV_aug2.png b/_assets/img/models/NV_aug2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/NV_sep1.png b/_assets/img/models/NV_sep1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/PA_aug1.png b/_assets/img/models/PA_aug1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/PA_aug2.png b/_assets/img/models/PA_aug2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/PA_sep1.png b/_assets/img/models/PA_sep1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/WI_aug1.png b/_assets/img/models/WI_aug1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/WI_aug2.png b/_assets/img/models/WI_aug2.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/WI_sep1.png b/_assets/img/models/WI_sep1.png
diff --git a/_assets/img/models/mi_sep1.png b/_assets/img/models/mi_sep1.png
diff --git a/_assets/objs/AZ_aug1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/AZ_aug1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/AZ_aug2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/AZ_aug2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/AZ_sep1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/AZ_sep1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/GA_aug1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/GA_aug1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/GA_aug2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/GA_aug2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/GA_sep1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/GA_sep1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/MI_aug1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/MI_aug1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/MI_aug2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/MI_aug2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/NC_aug1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/NC_aug1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/NC_aug2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/NC_aug2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/NC_sep1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/NC_sep1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/NV_aug1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/NV_aug1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/NV_aug2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/NV_aug2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/NV_sep1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/NV_sep1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/PA_aug1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/PA_aug1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/PA_aug2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/PA_aug2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/PA_sep1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/PA_sep1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/WI_aug1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/WI_aug1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/WI_aug2_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/WI_aug2_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/WI_sep1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/WI_sep1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/aug1_polls.bson b/_assets/objs/aug1_polls.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/jul2_polls.bson b/_assets/objs/jul2_polls.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/mi_sep1_p_sample.bson b/_assets/objs/mi_sep1_p_sample.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/mon_template.bson b/_assets/objs/mon_template.bson
diff --git a/_assets/objs/AZ_new_prior.bson → _assets/objs/new_prior.bson b/_assets/objs/AZ_new_prior.bson → _assets/objs/new_prior.bson
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/CreateOutcomes.jl b/_assets/scripts/CreateOutcomes.jl
@@ -55,10 +55,10 @@ outcome = DataFrame(
     votes = [sum(votes[state] for state in combo) for combos_list in values(combos) for combo in combos_list]
 )
 
-outcome.harris    = outcome.votes .+ blues
-outcome.trump    = COLLEGE       .- outcome.harris
+outcome.harris   = outcome.votes  .+ blues
+outcome.trump    = COLLEGE        .- outcome.harris
 outcome.total    = outcome.harris .+ outcome.trump
-outcome.check    = outcome.total .- COLLEGE
+outcome.check    = outcome.total  .- COLLEGE
 sort!(outcome,:votes)
 all(outcome.check .== 0)
 

diff --git a/_assets/scripts/cons.jl b/_assets/scripts/cons.jl
@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+STATE          = State
+const states   = ["NV", "WI", "AZ", "GA", "MI", "PA", "NC"]
+const FLAGRED  = "rgb(178,  34,  52)"
+const FLAGBLUE = "rgb( 60,  59, 110)"
+const PURPLE   = "rgb(119,  47,  81)"
+const GREENBAR = "rgb( 47, 119,  78)"
+const LORANGE  = "rgb(225, 170, 110)"
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/debris/old_az.md b/_assets/scripts/debris/old_az.md
@@ -0,0 +1,227 @@
+In the 2020 election President Biden won 50.16% (0.5016) of the votes cast for Biden or Trump in Arizona. This leaves out votes for third-party candidates. Taking the actual result as a starting point, the model introduces some uncertainty into the result to create a range of outcomes for that election from 50.10% to 50.21%. Next, the results of each month's polling are factored in on a rolling basis. When the plot shows that more of the credible interval lies to the left of the 2020 margin it indicates that Harris is losing ground compared to the 2020 election results, taking the polls at face value.
+
+Beginning with polls conducted from July 23 - July 31, 2024, the model that used results through July 22, 2024 plus an allowance for the uncertainty introduced by the entry of Vice President Harris in place of President Biden will be used as the starting point, to be updated fortnightly by later poll results.
+
+## July assessment from beginning of Harris campaign
+
+Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5012</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5007</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5018</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_jul2.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+~~~
+
+## July assessment through end of Biden campaign
+
+Biden wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5015</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5008</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5018</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_jul.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+
+~~~
+
+## June assessment
+
+Biden wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5009</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5019</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0008</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_jun.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+
+ ~~~
+
+## May assessment
+
+Biden wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5015</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5009</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.502</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_may.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+
+ ~~~
+## April assessment
+
+Biden wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5015</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5015</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5013</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5009</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.502</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0008</td
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_apr.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+
+~~~
+## March assessment
+Biden wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5015</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5015</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.501</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5021</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0001
+    </td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_mar.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+~~~
+
+## 2020 election
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5016</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5016</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5016</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.501</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5021</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0002</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_2020.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+~~~
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/dict.jl b/_assets/scripts/dict.jl
@@ -0,0 +1,14 @@
+Month_names = Dict(
+	"mar" => "March",
+	"apr" => "April",
+	"may" => "May",
+	"jun" => "June",
+	"jul" => "July",
+	"jul2" => "July-post",
+	"aug1" => "early August",
+	"aug2" => "late August",
+	"sep1" => "early September",
+	"sep3" => "late September",
+	"oct1" => "early October",
+	"oct2" => "late October",
+	"fin" => "final polling")
diff --git a/_assets/scripts/enum.jl b/_assets/scripts/enum.jl
@@ -0,0 +1,59 @@
+@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep1 sep2 oct1 oct2 nov fin
+@enum Pollster begin
+    ag
+    aj
+    am
+    bi2
+    bi3
+    bl2
+    bl3
+    cb2
+    cb3
+    cj
+    cn2
+    cn3
+    ea
+    ec2
+    ec3
+    ep
+    eu
+    fa
+    fm2
+    fm3
+    fo2
+    fo3
+    hi2
+    hi3
+    hp
+    ia
+    ma2
+    ma3
+    mi2
+    mi3
+    mq
+    mr2
+    mr3
+    ny2
+    ns
+    pp
+    ny
+    qi2
+    qi3
+    rr
+    si2
+    si3
+    sp2
+    sp3
+    su2
+    su3
+    tr
+    us
+    wa2
+    wa3
+    wr
+    ws
+    wsl
+    wss
+    yg
+end
+@enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV