June edition

12th.md

@@ -10,19 +10,19 @@ If **President Biden wins only Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin** the outcom
 ## Without the Nebraska Second
 
 The models assume that except for the seven swing states, each candidate will win the states and election districts won in 2020. For Biden, the total includes a Nebraska
-district that centers on Omaha. Nebraska is one of two states that have this arrangement. The other is Maine. An attempt was made earlier this year to change Nebraska to the winner-take-all system used by other states. It was unsuccessful, and it is not clear if another attempt will be made. It could be added to a special session anticipated for July to deal with property tax relief. Should winner take all be implement or if the Nebraska Second this time votes for Trump, possible outcomes differ.
+district that centers on Omaha. Nebraska is one of two states that have this arrangement. The other is Maine. An attempt was made earlier this year to change Nebraska to the winner-take-all system used by other states. It was unsuccessful, and it is not clear if another attempt will be made. It could be added to a special session anticipated for July to deal with property tax relief, but as of mid-June there has been a scarcity of news raising this. There also appears to be some internecine conflict going on between the Congressional delegation and the MAGA-aligned party apparatus.  Should winner take all be implemented or if the Nebraska Second this time votes for Trump, possible outcomes differ.
 
 A tie outcome that was produced by Biden winning only Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, now has three different possible scenarios
 
 * Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania
-* Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
+* Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina (through May, NC is not moving in Biden's direction)
 * Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania
 
 Those three scenarios, which were formally wins, are replaced as the smallest possible victories by
 
 * Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania
 * Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania
-* Arizona, Pennsylvania and NC North Carolina
+* Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
 
 ## Constitutional framework for a tied vote
 

_assets/scripts/insert_jun.jl

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+using BSON: @save, @load
+using LinearAlgebra
+using PrettyTables
+using Printf
+using Serialization
+using Statistics
+using StatsPlots
+using Turing
+
+# const DESIGN_ERROR = 0.012
+
+@enum Month mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov
+
+@enum Pollster begin
+    ag2
+    aj2
+    am2
+    bi2
+    bi3
+    bl2
+    bl3
+    cb2
+    cb3
+    cn2
+    cn3
+    ea2
+    ec2
+    ec3
+    ep2
+    eu2
+    fm2
+    fm3
+    fo2
+    fo3
+    hi2
+    hi3
+    hp2
+    ma2
+    ma3
+    mi2
+    mi3
+    mq2
+    mr2
+    mr3
+    ny2
+    qi2
+    qi3
+    rr2
+    si2
+    si3
+    sp2
+    sp3
+    su2
+    su3
+    wa2
+    wa3
+    ws2
+    ws3l
+    ws3s
+end
+
+@enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
+
+struct Poll
+    biden_support::Float64
+    trump_support::Float64
+    sample_size::Int
+end
+# 
+
+@load "../objs/may_polls.bson" months
+
+months[jun][AZ][ag2] = [Poll(42,48, 600)]
+months[jun][AZ][ec2] = [Poll(43,47,1000)]
+months[jun][AZ][fo2] = [Poll(46,51,1095)]
+months[jun][AZ][rr2] = [Poll(47,40, 750)]
+months[jun][GA][aj2] = [Poll(38,43,1000)]
+months[jun][GA][ec2] = [Poll(41,45,1000)]
+months[jun][GA][qi2] = [Poll(44,40,1203)]
+months[jun][MI][ec2] = [Poll(43,46,1000)]
+months[jun][NC][eu2] = [Poll(43,48,1332)]
+months[jun][NV][ec2] = [Poll(43,46,1000)]
+months[jun][NV][fo2] = [Poll(45,50,1069)]
+months[jun][PA][ec2] = [Poll(45,47,1000)]
+months[jun][WI][ec2] = [Poll(44,47,1000)]
+months[may][AZ][am2] = [Poll(42,48, 600)]
+months[may][AZ][ec2] = [Poll(43,47,1000)]
+months[may][AZ][rr2] = [Poll(42,47, 750)]
+months[may][GA][aj2] = [Poll(38,43,1000)]
+months[may][GA][ec2] = [Poll(41,45, 604)]
+months[may][MI][ec2] = [Poll(49,51,1000)]
+months[may][MI][ep2] = [Poll(45,49, 600)]
+months[may][MI][mi2] = [Poll(45,46, 697)]
+months[may][NC][ea2] = [Poll(43,48,1332)]
+months[may][NV][ec2] = [Poll(39,41,1000)]
+months[may][NV][fo2] = [Poll(45,50,1000)]
+months[may][PA][ec2] = [Poll(45,47,1000)]
+months[may][WI][ec2] = [Poll(42,44,1000)]
+months[may][WI][mq2] = [Poll(50,50, 811)]
+
+
+# needs to be done manually rather than with include()
+#@save "../objs/jun_polls.bson" months
+
+

_assets/scripts/insert_may.jl

@@ -1,25 +1,24 @@
-using BSON: @save, @load
-using LinearAlgebra
-using PrettyTables
-using Printf
-using Serialization
-using Statistics
-using StatsPlots
-using Turing
 
-# const DESIGN_ERROR = 0.012
 
-@enum Month mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov
 
-@enum Pollster begin
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
     bi2
     bi3
+    biden_support::Float64
     bl2
     bl3
     cb2
     cb3
     cn2
     cn3
+    ea2
     ec2
     ec3
     fm2
@@ -49,43 +48,37 @@ using Turing
     ws2
     ws3l
     ws3s
-end
-
+@enum Month mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov
+@enum Pollster begin
 @enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV
-
-struct Poll
-    biden_support::Float64
-    trump_support::Float64
-    sample_size::Int
-end
-# 
-
 @load "../objs/apr_polls.bson" months
-
-months[may][AZ][bl2] = [Poll(44,49, 795)]
-months[may][GA][bl2] = [Poll(44,47, 795)]
-months[may][MI][bl3] = [Poll(40,44, 704)]
-months[may][NC][bl2] = [Poll(42,49, 704)]
-months[may][WI][bl2] = [Poll(46,47, 693)]
-months[may][NV][bl2] = [Poll(47,47, 459)]
-months[may][PA][bl2] = [Poll(46,48, 812)]
-months[may][AZ][ec2] = [Poll(42,49, 626)]
-months[may][GA][ec2] = [Poll(39,49, 604)]
-months[may][MI][ec2] = [Poll(36,38, 616)]
-months[may][NV][ec2] = [Poll(38,50, 614)]
-months[may][PA][ec2] = [Poll(44,47,1023)]
-months[may][WI][ec2] = [Poll(47,45, 614)]
-months[may][NC][hp2] = [Poll(43,48,1002)]
-months[may][WI][qi2] = [Poll(50,44,1497)]
-months[may][AZ][si2] = [Poll(42,49, 626)]
-months[may][GA][si2] = [Poll(39,49, 604)]
-months[may][MI][si3] = [Poll(36,38, 616)]
-months[may][NV][si2] = [Poll(38,50, 614)]
-months[may][PA][si2] = [Poll(44,47,1023)]
-months[may][WI][si2] = [Poll(47,45, 614)]
-
-
+# 
+# const DESIGN_ERROR = 0.012
 # needs to be done manually rather than with include()
 #@save "../objs/may_polls.bson" months
-
-
+end
+end
+months[may][AZ][am2] = [Poll(42,48, 600)]
+months[may][AZ][ec2] = [Poll(43,47,1000)]
+months[may][AZ][rr2] = [Poll(42,47, 750)]
+months[may][GA][aj2] = [Poll(38,43,1000)]
+months[may][GA][ec2] = [Poll(41,45,1000)]
+months[may][GA][qi2] = [Poll(44,49,1203)]
+months[may][MI][ep2] = [Poll(45,49, 600)]
+months[may][MI][ec2] = [Poll(49,51,1000)]
+months[may][MI][mi2] = [Poll(45,46, 697)]
+months[may][NC][ea2] = [Poll(43,48,1332)]
+months[may][NV][fo2] = [Poll(45,50,1000)]
+months[may][NV][ec2] = [Poll(39,41,1000)]
+months[may][PA][ec2] = [Poll(45,47,1000)]
+months[may][WI][ec2] = [Poll(42,44,1000)]
+months[may][WI][mq2] = [Poll(50,50, 811)]
+struct Poll
+using BSON: @save, @load
+using LinearAlgebra
+using PrettyTables
+using Printf
+using Serialization
+using Statistics
+using StatsPlots
+using Turing

_assets/scripts/polls.jl

@@ -3,12 +3,12 @@
 
 
 STATE       = State
-prior_month = "apr"
-mon         = may
-MON         = "may"
-Mon         = "may"
-st          = "WI"
-ST          =  WI
+prior_month = "may"
+mon         = jun
+MON         = "jun"
+Mon         = "jun"
+st          = "NV"
+ST          =  NV
 
 include("polls_head.jl")
 prior_poll = BSON.load("../objs/"*"$st"*"_"*"$prior_month"*"_p_sample.bson")

az.md

@@ -2,6 +2,7 @@
 title = "Arizona"
 +++
 
+* [June assessment](#June-assessment)
 * [May assessment](#may-assessment)
 * [April assessment](#april-assessment)
 * [March assessment](#march-assessment)
@@ -22,6 +23,39 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria.
 * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin.
 * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote.  
 
+## June assessment
+
+Biden win under the *Relaxed* criterion.
+
+~~~
+<table>
+  <thead>
+    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">median</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mean</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mode</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q025</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">q975</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">mcse</th>
+      <th style = "text-align: right;">rhat</th>
+    </tr>
+  </thead>
+  <tbody>
+    <tr>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5014</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5009</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.5019</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">0.0</td>
+      <td style = "text-align: right;">1.0008</td>
+    </tr>
+  </tbody>
+</table>
+<img src="/assets/img/models/AZ_jun.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">
+
+ ~~~
+
 ## May assessment
 
 Biden win under the *Relaxed* criterion.