First publication date

12th.md

@@ -2,36 +2,9 @@
 title = "Twelfth Amendment"
 +++
 
-## Tie scenarios
-
-Five outcomes result in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College In each case, the states shown are those assumed to be won by Biden and the remaining three won by Trump. This assumes also that except for the seven swing states, every other state is won by the candidate who won it in 2020. 
-
-~~~
-<table>
-  <thead>
-    <tr class = "header">
-      <th style = "text-align: right;">Ties</th>
-    </tr>
-  </thead>
-  <tbody>
-    <tr>
-      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, MI, NC and PA</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, NC, PA and GA</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td style = "text-align: right;">MI, WI, NC and GA</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td style = "text-align: right;">MI, WI, AZ and PA</td>
-    </tr>
-    <tr>
-      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, PA and GA</td>
-    </tr>
-  </tbody>
-</table>
-~~~
+## Tie scenario
+
+If **President Biden wins only Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin** the outcome will be a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. This assumes that Biden does not win Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona or Nevada, each of which Trump wins. Otherwise, every remaining state is won by the candidate who won it in 2020. 
 
 ## Constitutional framework for a tied vote
 

Project.toml

@@ -1,3 +1,4 @@
-[deps]
-Franklin = "713c75ef-9fc9-4b05-94a9-213340da978e"
-NodeJS = "2bd173c7-0d6d-553b-b6af-13a54713934c"
+name = "outcomes"
+uuid = "f76a0929-b5a9-4580-b4b4-7e4ac31d259a"
+authors = ["technocrat <[email protected]>"]
+version = "0.1.0"

SwingWatch.code-workspace

@@ -0,0 +1,7 @@
+{
+	"folders": [
+		{
+			"path": "."
+		}
+	]
+}

_assets/data/college.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,17 @@
+Alabama - 9 votes,Kentucky - 8 votes,North Dakota - 3 votes,,,,
+Alaska - 3 votes,Louisiana - 8 votes,Ohio - 17 votes,,,,
+Arizona - 11 votes,Maine - 4 votes,Oklahoma - 7 votes,,,,
+Arkansas - 6 votes,Maryland - 10 votes,Oregon - 8 votes,,,,
+California - 54 votes,Massachusetts - 11 votes,Pennsylvania - 19 votes,,,,
+Colorado - 10 votes,Michigan - 15 votes,Rhode Island - 4 votes,,,,
+Connecticut - 7 votes,Minnesota - 10 votes,South Carolina - 9 votes,,,,
+Delaware - 3 votes,Mississippi - 6 votes,South Dakota - 3 votes,,,,
+District of Columbia - 3 votes,Missouri - 10 votes,Tennessee - 11 votes,,,,
+Florida - 30 votes,Montana - 4 votes,Texas - 40 votes,,,,
+Georgia - 16 votes,Nebraska - 5 votes,Utah - 6 votes,,,,
+Hawaii - 4 votes,Nevada - 6 votes,Vermont - 3 votes,,,,
+Idaho - 4 votes,New Hampshire - 4 votes,Virginia - 13 votes,,,,
+Illinois - 19 votes,New Jersey - 14 votes,Washington - 12 votes,,,,
+Indiana - 11 votes,New Mexico - 5 votes,West Virginia - 4 votes,,,,
+Iowa - 6 votes,New York - 28 votes,Wisconsin - 10 votes,,,,
+Kansas - 6 votes,North Carolina - 16 votes,Wyoming - 3 votes,,,,

_assets/objs/2024vote.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
+st,biden_pop,trump_pop,margin,biden_col,trump_col
+AK,153778,189951,-36173,0,3
+AL,849624,1441170,-591546,0,9
+AR,423932,760647,-336715,0,6
+AZ,1672143,1661686,10457,11,0
+CA,11110639,6006518,5104121,54,0
+CO,1804352,1364607,439745,10,0
+CT,1080831,714717,366114,7,0
+DC,317323,18586,298737,3,0
+DE,296268,200603,95665,3,0
+FL,5297045,5668731,-371686,0,30
+GA,2473633,2461854,11779,16,0
+HI,366130,196864,169266,4,0
+IA,759061,897672,-138611,0,6
+ID,287021,554119,-267098,0,4
+IL,3471915,2446891,1025024,19,0
+IN,1242498,1729857,-487359,0,11
+KS,570323,771406,-201083,0,6
+KY,772474,1326646,-554172,0,8
+LA,856034,1255776,-399742,0,8
+MA,2382202,1167202,1215000,11,0
+MD,1985023,976414,1008609,10,0
+ME,435072,360737,74335,1,0
+ME1,266376,164045,102331,1,0
+ME2,168696,196692,-27996,0,2
+MI,2804040,2649852,154188,15,0
+MN,1717077,1484065,233012,10,0
+MO,1253014,1718736,-465722,0,10
+MS,539398,756764,-217366,0,6
+MT,244786,343602,-98816,0,4
+NC,2684292,2758775,-74483,0,16
+ND,115042,235751,-120709,0,3
+NE,374583,556846,-182263,0,1
+NE1,132261,180290,-48029,0,1
+NE2,176468,154377,22091,1,0
+NE3,65854,222179,-156325,0,2
+NH,424937,365660,59277,4,0
+NJ,2608400,1883313,725087,14,0
+NM,501614,401894,99720,5,0
+NV,703486,669890,33596,6,0
+NY,5244886,3251997,1992889,28,0
+OH,2679165,3154834,-475669,0,17
+OK,503890,1020280,-516390,0,7
+OR,1340383,958448,381935,8,0
+PA,3458229,3377674,80555,19,0
+RI,307486,199922,107564,4,0
+SC,1091541,1385103,-293562,0,9
+SD,150471,261043,-110572,0,3
+TN,1143711,1852475,-708764,0,11
+TX,5259126,5890347,-631221,0,40
+UT,560282,865140,-304858,0,6
+VA,2413568,1962430,451138,13,0
+VT,242820,112704,130116,3,0
+WA,2369612,1584651,784961,12,0
+WI,1630866,1610184,20682,10,0
+WV,235984,545382,-309398,0,4
+WY,73491,193559,-120068,0,3

_assets/objs/college.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,18 @@
+st1,ev1,st2,ev2,st3,ev3
+Alabama,9,Kentucky,8,North Dakota,3
+Alaska,3,Louisiana,8,Ohio,17
+Arizona,11,Maine,4,Oklahoma,7
+Arkansas,6,Maryland,10,Oregon,8
+California,54,Massachusetts,11,Pennsylvania,19
+Colorado,10,Michigan,15,Rhode Island,4
+Connecticut,7,Minnesota,10,South Carolina,9
+Delaware,3,Mississippi,6,South Dakota,3
+District of Columbia,3,Missouri,10,Tennessee,11
+Florida,30,Montana,4,Texas,40
+Georgia,16,Nebraska,5,Utah,6
+Hawaii,4,Nevada,6,Vermont,3
+Idaho,4,New Hampshire,4,Virginia,13
+Illinois,19,New Jersey,14,Washington,12
+Indiana,11,New Mexico,5,West Virginia,4
+Iowa,6,New York,28,Wisconsin,10
+Kansas,6,North Carolina,16,Wyoming,3