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# Personal Webpage | ||
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Covid-19 Cases in Germany | ||
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I'm trying to predict the amount of hospital treatment needed to deal with the corona crisis in | ||
germany. | ||
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The numbers in the csv file are from a wikipedia article [COVID-19 Fälle in | ||
Deutschland](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19-Fälle_in_Deutschland). | ||
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In the first step I fit a logistic curve to the current progression of infected cases and a | ||
maximum value of 70% of germany. | ||
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The idea to use a logistic curve came from this 3Blue1Brown [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg&t=473s) | ||
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Second step I estimate, that 1 % of the people need intensive care for 4 days and sum up | ||
these cases. | ||
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Contribute | ||
========== | ||
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* Feel free to comment or contribute. I would like to access the data from some online source and | ||
not from my offline csv file. | ||
* Is there a source for the amount of people in intensive care? 1% and 3 days is just a guess. | ||
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Open Points | ||
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* Turning point prediction is by definition at 25 mio. infected people, half of the expected | ||
total in Germany. How will the governments measures be visible in the graph? Smaller slope. | ||
--> Hide turning point. | ||
* Create an image gallery for the previews. | ||
During the pandemic I created a personal homepage and am still maintainig it. |