Update (optionally) data and base year used to calculate non-CO2 emissions

[gabriel-abrahao]

Purpose of this PR

Requires #1955 . REMIND represents non-CO2 emissions in various different ways for different emission sources. The general rationale is:

• Calculate a baseline emissions trajectory, either completely exogenous or based on some endogenous activity level
• Using the endogenous carbon price, apply MACCs on top of those baseline trajectories

Current state

This PR addresses just the first step, the calculation of baseline trajectories, for several emission sources. Below is a complete-ish summary on how non-CO2 emissions were calculated before this PR:

# Emission factors calculated from EDGAR 2005 emissions and REMIND activities (updated in #1955 )
        ch4coal    "fugitive emissions from coal mining"
        ch4gas     "fugitive emissions from gas production"
        ch4oil     "fugitive emissions from oil production"
# Econometric estimate, "calibrated" based on EDGAR 2005 and REMIND population and GDP
        ch4wstl    "ch4 emissions from solid waste disposal on land"
        ch4wsts    "ch4 emissions from waste water"
        n2owaste   "n2o emissions from waste (domestic sewage)"
# Exogenous baseline trajectories (IMAGE, Lucas 2007), scaled to EDGAR2005
        n2otrans   "n2o emissions from transport"
        n2oadac    "n2o emissions from adipic acid production"
        n2onitac   "n2o emissions from nitric acid production"
# Exogenous (Recent MAgPIE)
        ch4rice    "ch4 emissions from rice cultivation (rice_ch4)"
        ch4peatland "ch4 emissions from peatlands (no MAC available)"
        ch4animals "ch4 emissions from enteric fermentation of ruminants (ent_ferm_ch4)"
        ch4anmlwst "ch4 emissions from animal waste management(awms_ch4)"
        n2ofertin  "n2o emissions from Inorganic fertilizers (inorg_fert_n2o)"
        n2ofertcr  "n2o emissions from decay of crop residues (resid_n2o)"
        n2ofertsom "n2o emissions from soil organic matter loss (som_n2o)"
        n2oanwstc  "n2o emissions from manure applied to croplands (man_crop_n2o)"
        n2oanwstm  "n2o emissions from animal waste management (awms_n2o)"
        n2oanwstp  "n2o emissions from manure excreted on pasture (man_past_n2o)"
        n2oagwaste "n2o emissions from agricultural waste burning (no MAC available)"
        n2opeatland "n2o emissions from peatlands (no MAC available)"
# Fully exogenous baseline trajectories with no MACCs available (MAgPIE 3, sources not represented anymore in MAgPIE)
        ch4agwaste "ch4 emissions from agricultural waste burning (no MAC available)"
        ch4forest  "ch4 emissions from forest burning (no MAC available)"
        ch4savan   "ch4 emissions from savannah burning (no MAC available)"
        n2oforest  "n2o emissions from forest burning (no MAC available)"
        n2osavan   "n2o emissions from savannah burning (no MAC available)"

What changes with this PR

This was designed to be non-intrusive at first. All new implementations are controlled by the cm_emifacs_baseyear switch, introduced in #1955 . The default value is still 2005 so we don't break anything, but should change 2020 after this is fully validated and possibly simply removed.

*' cm_emifacs_baseyear "base year for deriving nonCO2 emission factors/econometric estimates/scaling factors"
*' (2005): Uses EDGAR data with 2005 as base year, and Lucas et al. 2007 IMAGE for N2O baselines
*' (2020): Uses CEDS2024 data with 2020 as base year, and Harmsen et al. 2022 IMAGE for N2O baselines
$setGlobal cm_emifacs_baseyear  2005          !! def = 2005

Below is a summary of what changes for which sources with cm_emifacs_baseyear = 2020

# Emission factors calculated from CEDS 2020 emissions and REMIND activities (updated in #1955 )
        ch4coal    "fugitive emissions from coal mining"
        ch4gas     "fugitive emissions from gas production"
        ch4oil     "fugitive emissions from oil production"
# Econometric estimate, scaling parameter "calibrated" based on CEDS 2020 and REMIND population and GDP
        ch4wstl    "ch4 emissions from solid waste disposal on land"
        ch4wsts    "ch4 emissions from waste water"
        n2owaste   "n2o emissions from waste (domestic sewage)"
# Exogenous baseline trajectories (IMAGE, Harmsen 2022), scaled to CEDS 2020
        n2otrans   "n2o emissions from transport"
        n2oadac    "n2o emissions from adipic acid production"
        n2onitac   "n2o emissions from nitric acid production"

Type of change

• New feature

Checklist:

• My code follows the coding etiquette
• I performed a self-review of my own code
• I explained my changes within the PR, particularly in hard-to-understand areas
• I checked that the in-code documentation is up-to-date
• I adjusted the reporting in remind2 where it was needed
• I adjusted forbiddenColumnNames in readCheckScenarioConfig.R in case the PR leads to deprecated switches
• I checked the log.txt file of my runs for newly introduced summation, fixing or variable name errors
• All automated model tests pass (FAIL 0 in the output of make test)
• The changelog CHANGELOG.md has been updated correctly

Further information (optional):

• Runs with these changes are here:
  /p/projects/piam/abrahao/scratch/updatenonco2/remind/

• Comparison of results (what changes by this PR?):

All scenarios were based on SSP2-NPi2025. Mitigation scenarios are also available and worked, but the important aspect here are the baselines. Note that NPi has already some mitigation on top of the calculated baselines due to small and often sectoral C prices in NPi.

Scenario	Description
SSP2-NPi2025-EDGAR2005	Previous default, works as it should have before the PR
SSP2-NPi2025-CEDS2020	Only fossil extraction emission factors updates from #1955
SSP2-NPi2025-CEDS2020-FFandEcon	Above + updated econometric estimates from waste emissions
SSP2-NPi2025-CEDS2020-FFandEconandN2O	Above + Harmsen et al. 2022 IMAGE baselines for transport and acid N2O
SSP2-NPi2025-CEDS2020-FFandEconandN2OandBAdj	Above + adjusting IMAGE baselines to CEDS2020 instead of EDGAR2005

Taken together (EDGAR2005 vs. CEDS2020-FFandEconandN2OandBAdj), the updates lead to a an overall reduction in both CH4 and N2O baseline emissions. The N2O downwards revision is more or less the same throughout the century, while the CH4 one is seems to increase over time, with the previous EDGAR2005 CH4 emissions relatively stabilizing by mid-century while in the new update they keep decreasing. This is likely to lead to a larger difference in non-CO2 warming between 2020 and 2050, and thus not only lower peak warming in mitigation scenarios but a relative acceleration of peak warming relative to net-zero.

Addresses:
https://github.com/remindmodel/development_issues/issues/443
https://github.com/remindmodel/development_issues/issues/464
closes https://github.com/remindmodel/development_issues/issues/442

[gabriel-abrahao]

make test is failing but looks like it's nothing to do with this (see this exchange)

[gabriel-abrahao]

@nicobauer please take a quick look at the plots, just so you're more or less aware.

[nicobauer]

I only looked into the figures as you requested. One question: the CH4 energy spike is in the data, right?

[LaviniaBaumstark]

are those data in the current input data?