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Evaluation and Aggregation of Covid-19 Death Forecasts in the United States

A master thesis in Applied Statistics

Submitted to the Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences at Göttingen University in September 2020

PDF

The PDF version of this thesis can be found in /docs/Master-thesis-Nikos-Bosse.pdf

Data

Raw data can be found in /data. Processed data as well as forecasts from the ensemble models can be found in /data/processed-data (or just click here)

Code

Utility functions (processing and loading of data, settings) can be found in /utils. Code to generate the ensemble models can be found in /ensembling. All other analyses can be found in /visualisation. Code will be tidied up in the future, so folder names may change.

Dependencies

This thesis uses the latest version of the scoringutils package that is currently on the development branch. Model aggregation depends on the stackr package. All other R packages are available on CRAN.

Issues

For questions or feedback please submit an issue to this repository.

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