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A time series analysis for predicting COVID-19 cases on district level by using publicly sourced data

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District level projection of COVID-19 cases

We can semi-reliably predict (tuning required) the trend of new cases due to COVID-19 in a given district using standard Time Series Analysis methods such as Holt-Winters or ARIMA.

How to Use

forecast.R contains the code for making a training and testing a model and finally applying it on available data to forecast the near future.

But before that, we need the data, the scripts for doing that are in the Makefile, but you don't need to know how it works, generate the data for your district using:

make district='"New Delhi"'

Keep in mind, the data is from covid19india.org and is updated daily, to download a new copy of the data, run

make fetch
make district='"New Delhi"'

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