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Merge pull request #2347 from martinholmer/2-4-0-cookbook
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Update expected results of Python Cookbook recipes
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@martinholmer
martinholmer authored Jun 25, 2019
2 parents 2d7c4ac + 7853e93 commit a141d93
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29 changes: 0 additions & 29 deletions docs/cookbook.html
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Expand Up @@ -408,35 +408,6 @@ <h3 id="recipe06">Recipe 6: Analyzing a Non-Parametric Reform</h3>
want to read that recipe first.
</p>

<p>
If you look closely at this recipe and its results, you will see
that the reform-induced change in 2022 income tax liability is not
exactly that same as the 2022 reform-induced change in the sum of
the EITC (the parametric element of the reform) and the pseudo-COLR
(the non-parametric element of the reform). Missing in the recipe
results is a component of income tax liability that is changing in
this reform and when its change is added to the change in EITC plus
pseudo-COLR, the total will exactly equal the change in income tax
liability. To find this missing component, we are conducting a
contest with a $100 prize. Anybody who has a US bank account to
which the prize money can be transferred is eligible to enter the
contest, except for people in two ineligible groups: those who are
members of the Policy Simulation Library Leadership Council and
those who have ever attended a Tax-Calculator online staff meeting,
which occurs every other Thursday at 5:00pm Eastern Time. Your
contest entry, which must be submitted as a GitHub Tax-Calculator
repository issue with the title <q>Recipe 6 Contest Entry</q>, must
include a Python script (no notebooks please) that produces 2025
aggregate results rounded to the nearest million dollars for the
reform-induced changes in income tax liability, EITC, pseudo-COLR,
and the missing component, using the publicly-available CPS data that
are in the taxcalc package. And most importantly, your entry must
include an explanation of why the missing component of income tax
liability changes when the pseudo-COLR replaces the EITC. The
contest runs from May 20, 2019, until the submission of the first
correct entry.
</p>

<p><b>Ingredients</b></p>

<p><a href="reformC_json.html" target="_blank">Policy reform</a> in the
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72 changes: 36 additions & 36 deletions docs/cookbook/recipe00.res
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2020_CLP_itax_rev($B)= 1447.348
2020_REF_itax_rev($B)= 1443.743
2020_CLP_itax_rev($B)= 1450.248
2020_REF_itax_rev($B)= 1446.991

CLP diagnostic table:
2020
Returns (#m) 167.510
AGI ($b) 12109.411
Itemizers (#m) 32.050
Itemized Deduction ($b) 902.537
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.470
Standard Deduction ($b) 2420.211
Itemizers (#m) 32.030
Itemized Deduction ($b) 902.200
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.480
Standard Deduction ($b) 2420.614
Personal Exemption ($b) 0.000
Taxable Income ($b) 9272.044
Regular Tax ($b) 1606.637
AMT Income ($b) 11474.939
AMT Liability ($b) 1.405
AMT Filers (#m) 0.280
Tax before Credits ($b) 1608.042
Taxable Income ($b) 9280.899
Regular Tax ($b) 1609.736
AMT Income ($b) 11475.120
AMT Liability ($b) 1.206
AMT Filers (#m) 0.240
Tax before Credits ($b) 1610.942
Refundable Credits ($b) 77.664
Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 94.005
Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000
Other Taxes ($b) 10.974
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1447.348
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1450.248
Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.691
Combined Liability ($b) 2771.039
Combined Liability ($b) 2773.939
With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 59.970
With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 38.980

REF diagnostic table:
2020
Returns (#m) 167.510
AGI ($b) 12109.411
Itemizers (#m) 31.970
Itemized Deduction ($b) 900.224
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.540
Standard Deduction ($b) 2421.571
Itemizers (#m) 31.960
Itemized Deduction ($b) 899.970
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.550
Standard Deduction ($b) 2421.875
Personal Exemption ($b) 333.334
Taxable Income ($b) 9019.038
Regular Tax ($b) 1600.587
AMT Income ($b) 11476.890
AMT Liability ($b) 1.397
AMT Filers (#m) 0.290
Tax before Credits ($b) 1601.985
Taxable Income ($b) 9027.832
Regular Tax ($b) 1603.993
AMT Income ($b) 11477.028
AMT Liability ($b) 1.239
AMT Filers (#m) 0.260
Tax before Credits ($b) 1605.232
Refundable Credits ($b) 80.415
Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 88.801
Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000
Other Taxes ($b) 10.974
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1443.743
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1446.991
Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.691
Combined Liability ($b) 2767.434
Combined Liability ($b) 2770.682
With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 62.220
With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 39.300

Expand All @@ -64,11 +64,11 @@ Extract of 2020 distribution table by baseline expanded-income decile:
60-70 16.75 62.473 58.499 1270.002 1273.976
70-80 16.75 108.590 103.219 1594.096 1599.467
80-90 16.75 218.186 209.884 2126.428 2134.730
90-100 16.75 997.510 1021.368 4384.605 4360.747
ALL 167.51 1447.348 1443.743 13058.905 13062.510
90-95 8.38 218.019 213.730 1454.483 1458.772
95-99 6.70 333.136 331.816 1692.273 1693.593
Top 1% 1.68 446.355 475.822 1237.848 1208.382
90-100 16.75 1000.410 1024.615 4381.705 4357.500
ALL 167.51 1450.248 1446.991 13056.006 13059.263
90-95 8.38 218.043 213.755 1454.459 1458.747
95-99 6.70 333.586 332.299 1691.824 1693.110
Top 1% 1.68 448.781 478.561 1235.422 1205.642

Extract of 2020 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile:
funits(#m) agg_diff($b) mean_diff($) aftertaxinc_diff(%)
Expand All @@ -83,8 +83,8 @@ Extract of 2020 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile:
60-70 16.75 -3.974 -237.2 0.3
70-80 16.75 -5.371 -320.6 0.3
80-90 16.75 -8.302 -495.6 0.4
90-100 16.75 23.858 1424.2 -0.5
ALL 167.51 -3.604 -21.5 0.0
90-95 8.38 -4.289 -512.1 0.3
95-99 6.70 -1.320 -197.0 0.1
Top 1% 1.68 29.466 17578.2 -2.4
90-100 16.75 24.205 1445.0 -0.6
ALL 167.51 -3.257 -19.4 0.0
90-95 8.38 -4.288 -511.9 0.3
95-99 6.70 -1.287 -192.1 0.1
Top 1% 1.68 29.780 17765.2 -2.4
12 changes: 6 additions & 6 deletions docs/cookbook/recipe01.res
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2018_REFORM1_iitax_rev($B)= 1416.934
2018_REFORM2_iitax_rev($B)= 1263.701
2018_REFORM2_iitax_rev($B)= 1266.208

Extract of 2018 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile
(taxfall is count of funits with cut in income tax in reform 2 vs 1)
Expand All @@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ Extract of 2018 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile
60-70 16.29 11.97 1.92 -10.845 -665.9 0.9
70-80 16.29 13.29 1.70 -15.457 -949.1 1.1
80-90 16.29 13.56 2.22 -23.037 -1414.5 1.2
90-100 16.29 14.50 1.68 -77.071 -4732.1 2.0
ALL 162.86 107.55 17.91 -153.233 -940.9 1.3
90-95 8.14 7.11 0.95 -17.949 -2204.3 1.4
95-99 6.52 5.97 0.52 -34.986 -5369.6 2.3
Top 1% 1.63 1.42 0.21 -24.136 -14819.8 2.2
90-100 16.29 14.48 1.70 -74.565 -4578.2 1.9
ALL 162.86 107.53 17.94 -150.727 -925.5 1.3
90-95 8.14 7.11 0.95 -17.931 -2202.2 1.4
95-99 6.52 5.96 0.54 -34.649 -5317.8 2.3
Top 1% 1.63 1.41 0.22 -21.984 -13498.5 2.0
86 changes: 43 additions & 43 deletions docs/cookbook/recipe02.res
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2020_CURRENT_LAW_P__itax_rev($B)= 1447.348
2020_REFORM_STATIC__itax_rev($B)= 1443.743
2020_REFORM_DYNAMIC_itax_rev($B)= 1433.640
2020_CURRENT_LAW_P__itax_rev($B)= 1450.248
2020_REFORM_STATIC__itax_rev($B)= 1446.991
2020_REFORM_DYNAMIC_itax_rev($B)= 1435.976

DIAGNOSTIC TABLE FOR BASELINE
2020 2021 2022
Returns (#m) 167.510 169.750 171.930
AGI ($b) 12109.411 12655.046 13180.408
Itemizers (#m) 32.050 33.210 34.320
Itemized Deduction ($b) 902.537 961.372 1020.720
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.470 136.530 137.610
Standard Deduction ($b) 2420.211 2494.978 2571.343
Itemizers (#m) 32.030 33.200 34.310
Itemized Deduction ($b) 902.200 961.069 1020.424
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.480 136.550 137.620
Standard Deduction ($b) 2420.614 2495.349 2571.709
Personal Exemption ($b) 0.000 0.000 0.000
Taxable Income ($b) 9272.044 9706.177 10119.075
Regular Tax ($b) 1606.637 1693.978 1775.247
AMT Income ($b) 11474.939 11978.534 12461.377
AMT Liability ($b) 1.405 1.403 1.399
AMT Filers (#m) 0.280 0.270 0.280
Tax before Credits ($b) 1608.042 1695.381 1776.646
Taxable Income ($b) 9280.899 9715.522 10128.922
Regular Tax ($b) 1609.736 1697.249 1778.694
AMT Income ($b) 11475.120 11978.694 12461.532
AMT Liability ($b) 1.206 1.198 1.185
AMT Filers (#m) 0.240 0.240 0.240
Tax before Credits ($b) 1610.942 1698.447 1779.879
Refundable Credits ($b) 77.664 78.142 79.485
Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 94.005 95.409 96.668
Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000 0.000 0.000
Other Taxes ($b) 10.974 11.480 11.975
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1447.348 1533.310 1612.467
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1450.248 1536.376 1615.701
Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.691 1381.123 1436.210
Combined Liability ($b) 2771.039 2914.433 3048.677
Combined Liability ($b) 2773.939 2917.498 3051.911
With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 59.970 60.550 61.130
With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 38.980 39.670 40.430
DIAGNOSTIC TABLE FOR REFORM EXCLUDING BEHAVIORAL RESPONSES
2020 2021 2022
Returns (#m) 167.510 169.750 171.930
AGI ($b) 12109.411 12655.046 13180.408
Itemizers (#m) 31.970 33.140 34.240
Itemized Deduction ($b) 900.224 958.657 1017.703
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.540 136.610 137.690
Standard Deduction ($b) 2421.571 2496.466 2573.093
Itemizers (#m) 31.960 33.130 34.230
Itemized Deduction ($b) 899.970 958.439 1017.483
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.550 136.620 137.700
Standard Deduction ($b) 2421.875 2496.735 2573.364
Personal Exemption ($b) 333.334 345.010 356.808
Taxable Income ($b) 9019.038 9444.178 9848.150
Regular Tax ($b) 1600.587 1689.791 1772.489
AMT Income ($b) 11476.890 11980.845 12463.925
AMT Liability ($b) 1.397 1.393 1.387
AMT Filers (#m) 0.290 0.290 0.280
Tax before Credits ($b) 1601.985 1691.184 1773.877
Taxable Income ($b) 9027.832 9453.458 9857.929
Regular Tax ($b) 1603.993 1693.386 1776.278
AMT Income ($b) 11477.028 11980.961 12464.041
AMT Liability ($b) 1.239 1.230 1.219
AMT Filers (#m) 0.260 0.260 0.250
Tax before Credits ($b) 1605.232 1694.616 1777.497
Refundable Credits ($b) 80.415 80.945 82.575
Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 88.801 90.142 91.342
Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000 0.000 0.000
Other Taxes ($b) 10.974 11.480 11.975
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1443.743 1531.576 1611.935
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1446.991 1535.008 1615.555
Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.691 1381.123 1436.210
Combined Liability ($b) 2767.434 2912.699 3048.145
Combined Liability ($b) 2770.682 2916.131 3051.765
With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 62.220 62.730 63.340
With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 39.300 40.030 40.860
DIAGNOSTIC TABLE FOR REFORM INCLUDING BEHAVIORAL RESPONSES
2020 2021 2022
Returns (#m) 167.510 169.750 171.930
AGI ($b) 12087.626 12630.858 13153.899
Itemizers (#m) 31.940 33.090 34.210
Itemized Deduction ($b) 899.061 957.247 1016.390
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.570 136.650 137.720
Standard Deduction ($b) 2422.137 2497.238 2573.693
AGI ($b) 12085.510 12628.610 13151.486
Itemizers (#m) 31.930 33.080 34.200
Itemized Deduction ($b) 898.746 956.928 1016.012
Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.580 136.660 137.730
Standard Deduction ($b) 2422.435 2497.532 2574.045
Personal Exemption ($b) 333.334 345.010 356.808
Taxable Income ($b) 8997.708 9420.504 9822.180
Regular Tax ($b) 1590.635 1678.936 1760.735
AMT Income ($b) 11456.043 11957.779 12438.509
AMT Liability ($b) 1.425 1.414 1.446
AMT Filers (#m) 0.300 0.300 0.290
Tax before Credits ($b) 1592.060 1680.350 1762.182
Taxable Income ($b) 9004.221 9427.352 9829.351
Regular Tax ($b) 1593.141 1681.574 1763.500
AMT Income ($b) 11454.128 11955.735 12436.337
AMT Liability ($b) 1.289 1.275 1.303
AMT Filers (#m) 0.270 0.270 0.270
Tax before Credits ($b) 1594.430 1682.850 1764.803
Refundable Credits ($b) 80.129 80.661 82.311
Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 89.042 90.383 91.577
Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 89.048 90.390 91.584
Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000 0.000 0.000
Other Taxes ($b) 10.751 11.241 11.711
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1433.640 1520.547 1600.004
Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.424 1380.761 1435.772
Combined Liability ($b) 2757.064 2901.308 3035.776
Other Taxes ($b) 10.722 11.211 11.678
Ind Income Tax ($b) 1435.976 1523.010 1602.586
Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.408 1380.745 1435.754
Combined Liability ($b) 2759.384 2903.755 3038.340
With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 62.060 62.540 63.160
With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 39.190 39.890 40.760
4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions docs/cookbook/recipe04.res
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Expand Up @@ -2,5 +2,5 @@
Response in Charitable Giving by Earnings Group
Earnings Group Num(#M) Resp($B) Resp(%)
[-9e+99, 50000) 109.371 0.708 0.56
[50000, 9e+99) 58.142 3.606 2.12
ALL 167.512 4.314 1.46
[50000, 9e+99) 58.142 3.608 2.12
ALL 167.512 4.316 1.46
12 changes: 6 additions & 6 deletions docs/cookbook/recipe05.res
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2018_REFORM1_iitax_rev($B)= 1416.934
2018_REFORM2_iitax_rev($B)= 1263.701
2018_REFORM2_iitax_rev($B)= 1266.208

Extract of 2018 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile
(taxfall is count of funits with cut in income tax in reform 2 vs 1)
Expand All @@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ Extract of 2018 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile
60-70 16.29 13.71 2.36 -12.690 -779.2 1.5
70-80 16.29 14.05 2.07 -16.714 -1026.2 1.5
80-90 16.29 13.86 2.33 -23.193 -1424.1 1.4
90-100 16.29 14.55 1.70 -77.139 -4736.3 2.1
ALL 162.86 107.55 17.91 -153.233 -940.9 1.7
90-95 8.14 7.16 0.96 -18.264 -2243.0 1.6
95-99 6.52 5.98 0.53 -34.698 -5325.7 2.5
Top 1% 1.63 1.42 0.21 -24.177 -14844.5 2.3
90-100 16.29 14.53 1.72 -74.632 -4582.4 2.1
ALL 162.86 107.53 17.94 -150.727 -925.5 1.7
90-95 8.14 7.16 0.96 -18.251 -2241.3 1.6
95-99 6.52 5.97 0.54 -34.358 -5273.6 2.5
Top 1% 1.63 1.41 0.22 -22.023 -13522.2 2.1
8 changes: 4 additions & 4 deletions docs/cookbook/recipe06.res
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YEAR UNITS ITAX1 ITAX2 EITC1 EITC2 COLR1 COLR2
2019 165.3 1349.9 1349.9 48.5 48.5 0.0 0.0
2020 167.5 1447.3 1212.4 48.5 0.0 0.0 283.4
2021 169.7 1533.3 1293.2 49.2 0.0 0.0 289.3
2022 171.9 1612.5 1366.9 50.1 0.0 0.0 295.6
2019 165.3 1352.6 1352.6 48.5 48.5 0.0 0.0
2020 167.5 1450.2 1215.3 48.5 0.0 0.0 283.4
2021 169.7 1536.4 1296.2 49.2 0.0 0.0 289.3
2022 171.9 1615.7 1370.2 50.1 0.0 0.0 295.6
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