Update Research.md

_pages/Research.md

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 <span style="color:blue"> **SELECTED WORK IN PROGRESS** </span> 
 
- <sub>**[1- Volatility on the Crypto-currency Market: A Copula-GARCH Approach (with Peter G. Moffatt and Andrea Calef**)](https://kensleyblaise.github.io/assets/files/crypto_copula.pdf){:target="_blank"}{:style="color: blue;"}</sub>
+ <sub>[**1- Volatility on the Crypto-currency Market: A Copula-GARCH Approach (with Peter G. Moffatt and Andrea Calef**)](https://kensleyblaise.github.io/assets/files/crypto_copula.pdf){:target="_blank"}{:style="color: blue;"}</sub>
 
  <sub> **Abstract:** </sub>
  <sub> *This research investigates whether crypto-currency returns correlate with expected uncertainty related to the global economy or other risky markets. In a first attempt, we use the copula framework to estimate the dependence magnitude between returns on the crypto-currency market, the interest rate spread, the breakeven inflation and the volatility index from the S&P500 options (VIX). Our results show that uncertainty information about future policy and the state of the economy contained in the interest rate spread bears no importance in crypto-currency price fluctuations. However, we find a pattern, although relatively small, for high estimated crypto-currency returns volatility to overlap with low VIX values. On another level, we find evidence that dynamic time series models can improve our understanding of price fluctuations on the crypto-currency market. We estimate a 5.6 percentage points increase of today's log-returns on the crypto-currency market for each one percentage point increase of yesterday's breakeven inflation. The effect is instantaneous and about 12 percentage points in recent time periods (2020-2022).* </sub>