diff --git a/12th.md b/12th.md index ea0f2da..5af8775 100644 --- a/12th.md +++ b/12th.md @@ -3,27 +3,19 @@ title = "Twelfth Amendment" tags = ["tag1", "tag2"] +++ -## Tie scenario +## Tie scenarios -If **Vice President Harris wins only Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin** the outcome will be a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. This assumes that Harris does not win Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona or Nevada, each of which Trump wins. Otherwise, every remaining state is won by the candidate who won it in 2020. +**Vice President Harris ties in three scenarios**, and the outcome will be a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. This assumes that Harris does not win any other swing state, each of which Trump wins. Otherwise, every remaining state is won by the party that won it in 2020. + +* NV, WI, AZ and GA +* NV, WI, AZ and NC +* AZ, GA and NC ## Without the Nebraska Second The models assume that except for the seven swing states, each candidate will win the states and election districts won in 2020. For Harris, the total includes a Nebraska district that centers on Omaha. Nebraska is one of two states that have this arrangement. The other is Maine. An attempt was made earlier this year to change Nebraska to the winner-take-all system used by other states. It was unsuccessful, and it is not clear if another attempt will be made. It could be added to a special session anticipated for July to deal with property tax relief, but as of mid-June there has been a scarcity of news raising this. There also appears to be some internecine conflict going on between the Congressional delegation and the MAGA-aligned party apparatus. Should winner take all be implemented or if the Nebraska Second this time votes for Trump, possible outcomes differ. -A tie outcome that was produced by Harris winning only Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, now has three different possible scenarios - -* Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania -* Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina (through May, NC is not moving in Harris's direction) -* Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania - -Those three scenarios, which were formally wins, are replaced as the smallest possible victories by - -* Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania -* Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania -* Arizona, Pennsylvania and North Carolina - ## Constitutional framework for a tied vote > The person having the greatest number of votes for President, shall be the President, if such number be a majority of the whole number of Electors appointed; and if no person have such majority, then from the persons having the highest numbers not exceeding three on the list of those voted for as President, the House of Representatives shall choose immediately, by ballot, the President. But in choosing the President, the **votes shall be taken by states, the representation from each state having one vote**; a quorum for this purpose shall consist of a member or members from two-thirds of the states, and **a majority of all the states shall be necessary to a choice**. diff --git a/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug1.png b/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug1.png index f71820e..4614583 100644 Binary files a/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug1.png and b/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug1.png differ diff --git a/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug2.png b/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug2.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..03cf533 Binary files /dev/null and b/_assets/img/models/AZ_aug2.png differ diff --git a/_assets/img/models/AZ_jul2.png b/_assets/img/models/AZ_jul2.png index 810840c..57d550c 100644 Binary files a/_assets/img/models/AZ_jul2.png and b/_assets/img/models/AZ_jul2.png differ diff --git a/_assets/img/models/GA_aug2.png b/_assets/img/models/GA_aug2.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a8a114f Binary 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b/_assets/objs/jul2_polls.bson differ diff --git a/_assets/scripts/commons.jl b/_assets/scripts/commons.jl index 9004cc0..4fdc6e2 100644 --- a/_assets/scripts/commons.jl +++ b/_assets/scripts/commons.jl @@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ struct Poll end #------------------------------------------------------------------ """ - filter_empty_entries(dict::Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}) -> Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}} + remove_empty_entries(dict::Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}) -> Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}} Filter out entries in a dictionary where the values are empty vectors. @@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ Filter out entries in a dictionary where the values are empty vectors. - `Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}`: A new dictionary containing only the entries from the input dictionary where the vectors are not empty. # Description -The `filter_empty_entries` function iterates over each key-value pair in the provided dictionary. It constructs a new dictionary that includes only those entries where the value (a vector of `Poll` objects) is not empty. +The `remove_empty_entries` function iterates over each key-value pair in the provided dictionary. It constructs a new dictionary that includes only those entries where the value (a vector of `Poll` objects) is not empty. # Example ```julia @@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ dict = Dict( ) # Filter out entries with empty vectors -filtered_dict = filter_empty_entries(dict) +filtered_dict = remove_entries(dict) println(filtered_dict) # Output: # Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}} with 1 entry: diff --git a/_assets/scripts/generico_concentration.png b/_assets/scripts/generico_concentration.png new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6bd41f6 Binary files /dev/null and b/_assets/scripts/generico_concentration.png differ diff --git a/_assets/scripts/insert_aug1.jl b/_assets/scripts/insert_aug1.jl index 5576009..158b91a 100644 --- a/_assets/scripts/insert_aug1.jl +++ b/_assets/scripts/insert_aug1.jl @@ -93,6 +93,6 @@ months[aug1][WI][tr] = [Poll(48,49,800)] # needs to be done manually rather than with include() -#@save "../objs/aug1_polls.bson" months +@save "../objs/aug1_polls.bson" months diff --git a/_assets/scripts/insert_aug2.jl b/_assets/scripts/insert_aug2.jl new file mode 100644 index 0000000..f1ef43d --- /dev/null +++ b/_assets/scripts/insert_aug2.jl @@ -0,0 +1,112 @@ +using BSON: @save, @load +using CSV +using DataFrames +using LinearAlgebra +using PrettyTables +using Printf +using Serialization +using Statistics +using StatsPlots +using Turing + +@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct nov + +@enum Pollster begin + ag + aj + am + bi2 + bi3 + bl2 + bl3 + cb2 + cb3 + cj + cn2 + cn3 + ea + ec2 + ec3 + ep + eu + fm2 + fm3 + fo2 + fo3 + hi2 + hi3 + hp + ia + ma2 + ma3 + mi2 + mi3 + mq + mr2 + mr3 + ny2 + ns + pp + ny + qi2 + qi3 + rr + si2 + si3 + sp2 + sp3 + su2 + su3 + tr + wa2 + wa3 + ws + wsl + wss + yg +end + +@enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV + +struct Poll + harris_support::Float64 + trump_support::Float64 + sample_size::Int64 +end + + +@load "../objs/aug1_polls.bson" months + +months[aug2][AZ][bl2] = [Poll(48,48,805)] +months[aug2][AZ][ec2] = [Poll(47,50,720)] +months[aug2][AZ][fo2] = [Poll(50,49,1014)] +months[aug2][AZ][ia] = [Poll(48,49,800)] +months[aug2][AZ][cn2] = [Poll(44,49,800)] +months[aug2][GA][bl2] = [Poll(49,47,801)] +months[aug2][GA][ec2] = [Poll(49,48,800)] +months[aug2][GA][fo2] = [Poll(49,49,1014)] +months[aug2][GA][ia] = [Poll(48,48,800)] +months[aug2][MI][bl2] = [Poll(49,46,702)] +months[aug2][MI][ec2] = [Poll(50,47,800)] +months[aug2][MI][ep] = [Poll(44,44,600)] +months[aug2][MI][tr] = [Poll(47,47,1089)] +months[aug2][NC][bl2] = [Poll(50,45,803)] +months[aug2][NC][ec2] = [Poll(48,49,775)] +months[aug2][NC][eu] = [Poll(47,48,720)] +months[aug2][NC][fo2] = [Poll(49,50,999)] +months[aug2][NC][ia] = [Poll(48,49,800)] +months[aug2][NV][bl2] = [Poll(49,45,700)] +months[aug2][NV][ec2] = [Poll(49,48,1168)] +months[aug2][NV][fo2] = [Poll(50,48,1026)] +months[aug2][NV][ia] = [Poll(47,48,800)] +months[aug2][PA][bl2] = [Poll(51,47,803)] +months[aug2][PA][ec2] = [Poll(48,48,950)] +months[aug2][PA][tr] = [Poll(45,47,1087)] +months[aug2][WI][tr] = [Poll(46,47,1083)] + + + +# needs to be done manually rather than with include() +#@save "../objs/aug2_polls.bson" months # comes out empty + + diff --git a/_assets/scripts/insert_jul2.jl b/_assets/scripts/insert_jul2.jl index 2ba7503..fffd4bc 100644 --- a/_assets/scripts/insert_jul2.jl +++ b/_assets/scripts/insert_jul2.jl @@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ using Statistics using StatsPlots using Turing -@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug sep oct nov +@enum Month mar apr may jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct nov @enum Pollster begin ag @@ -92,8 +92,7 @@ months[jul2][WI][bl2] = [Poll(49,47,700)] months[jul2][WI][ec2] = [Poll(47,47,854)] months[jul2][WI][fo2] = [Poll(46,46,1046)] - # needs to be done manually rather than with include() -#@save "../objs/jul2_polls.bson" months +@save "../objs/jul2_polls.bson" months diff --git a/_assets/scripts/polls.jl b/_assets/scripts/polls.jl index 9abdd78..80071c2 100644 --- a/_assets/scripts/polls.jl +++ b/_assets/scripts/polls.jl @@ -1,22 +1,22 @@ -# @enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV -# @enum Month mar apr may jun jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct +#@enum State PA GA NC MI AZ WI NV +#@enum Month mar apr may jun jul jul2 aug1 aug2 sep oct STATE = State -prior_month = "jul2" -mon = aug1 -MON = "aug1" -Mon = "aug1" -st = "NC" -ST = NC +prior_month = "aug1" +mon = aug2 +MON = "aug2" +Mon = "aug2" +st = "PA" +ST = PA -#include("polls_head.jl") +# include("polls_head.jl") prior_poll = BSON.load("../objs/"*"$st"*"_"*"$prior_month"*"_p_sample.bson") -@load "../objs/"*"$MON"*"_polls.bson" months +#@load "../objs/"*"$MON"*"_polls.bson" months # comes up empty margin = first(margins[margins.st .== st, :pct]) current_month = remove_empties(months[mon]) # -# include("polls_foot.jl") +include("polls_foot.jl") diff --git a/_assets/scripts/polls_foot.jl b/_assets/scripts/polls_foot.jl index b090c71..3414949 100644 --- a/_assets/scripts/polls_foot.jl +++ b/_assets/scripts/polls_foot.jl @@ -26,9 +26,14 @@ poll_posterior = prior_poll posterior_mean = mean(poll_posterior[:deep][:p]) posterior_var = var(poll_posterior[:deep][:p]) prior_alpha = posterior_mean * - (posterior_mean * (1 - posterior_mean) / posterior_var - 1) -prior_beta = (1 - posterior_mean) * (posterior_mean * - (1 - posterior_mean) / posterior_var - 1) + (posterior_mean * + (1 - posterior_mean) / + posterior_var - 1) +prior_beta = (1 - posterior_mean) * + (posterior_mean * + (1 - posterior_mean) / + posterior_var - 1) + prior_dist = Beta(prior_alpha, prior_beta) model = poll_model(num_votes, num_wins, prior_dist) diff --git a/_assets/scripts/polls_head.jl b/_assets/scripts/polls_head.jl index b9276bd..e81f654 100644 --- a/_assets/scripts/polls_head.jl +++ b/_assets/scripts/polls_head.jl @@ -96,7 +96,7 @@ mutable struct MetaFrame end #------------------------------------------------------------------ struct Poll - biden_support::Float64 + harris_support::Float64 trump_support::Float64 sample_size::Int64 end @@ -117,7 +117,7 @@ margins = CSV.read("../objs/margins.csv", DataFrame) margin = first(margins[margins.st .== st, :pct]) #------------------------------------------------------------------ """ - filter_empty_entries(dict::Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}) -> Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}} +filter_empty_entries(dict::Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}}) -> Dict{Pollster, Vector{Poll}} Filter out entries in a dictionary where the values are empty vectors. @@ -166,7 +166,7 @@ function remove_empties(the_month::Dict) end #------------------------------------------------------------------ function process_polls(polls::Vector{Poll}) - result = Int64.(collect(collect([(p.biden_support, p.sample_size) for p in polls])[1])) + result = Int64.(collect(collect([(p.harris_support, p.sample_size) for p in polls])[1])) return [Int64(floor(result[1] / 100 * result[2])), result[2]] end #------------------------------------------------------------------ diff --git a/az.md b/az.md index 252d456..2073cf0 100644 --- a/az.md +++ b/az.md @@ -17,7 +17,8 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria. * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin. * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote. -## August assessment before convention + +## August assessment after convention Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. @@ -36,13 +37,46 @@ Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. + 0.5012 + 0.5012 0.5013 - 0.5013 + 0.5007 + 0.5017 + 0.0 + 1.0024 + + + + + + +~~~ +## August assessment before convention + +Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. + +~~~ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + - +
medianmeanmodeq025q975mcserhat
0.50120.5012 0.5012 0.5007 0.5018 0.01.00011.0
@@ -69,11 +103,11 @@ Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. 0.5013 0.5013 - 0.5013 + 0.5012 0.5007 0.5018 0.0 - 1.0004 + 1.0 diff --git a/ga.md b/ga.md index f0a4dfa..ca95ac9 100644 --- a/ga.md +++ b/ga.md @@ -13,6 +13,39 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria. * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin. * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote. +## August assessment after convention + +Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. + +~~~ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
medianmeanmodeq025q975mcserhat
0.50090.50090.50090.50050.50140.01.0
+ + +~~~ + ## August assessment before convention Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. diff --git a/index.md b/index.md index e80b118..5a5f456 100644 --- a/index.md +++ b/index.md @@ -2,17 +2,18 @@ title = "Latest" +++ -## Superseding event - -Vice President Harris replaced President Biden as the nominee of the Democratic Party. The model has been revised to take into account the polls conducted in July prior to July 21, 2024 (when Biden withdrew) as the prior distribution, after introducing some variability to partially account for the added uncertainty introduced by the substitution - -For polls conducted through the end of the month, the model will be updated and every fortnight thereafter. Consideration will also be given to reassessing swing states, depending on initial results. It is expected that most Blue and Red states will remain as such, but some swing states will move. - -## Allocation of electoral college votes corrected - -Harris starts with the 226 (not 225) votes won by Biden in 2020, using the revised 2024 electoral college vote allocations. - -## Overall assessment for polling through July +This is the third round of surveys since President Biden withdrew and reflects the following: + +* The state of the model at July 22, 2024 (the date President Biden) announced his withdrawal was taken as a starting point. This model reflects the following + - The results of the 2020 election (in terms of the percentage won by Biden in the two-candidate tabulation) + - The addition of some random variation to account for the passage of time + - Adjustments based on surveys conducted March-June, 2024 and the July surveys before Biden withdrew +* Into that model more random variation was introduced +* The model was updated based on + - August surveys conducted before the Democratic convention + - August surveys conducted after the Democratic convention + +## Overall assessment for polling through August ### Stringent view @@ -26,7 +27,7 @@ Based on the criterion that the model shows Harris doing at least as well as Bid Based on the criterion that the model shows Harris winning by at least 50% plus one vote of the two-candidate split, Harris would six of the seven swing states (having lost in North Carolina), taking 77 electoral votes resulting in a **303-235 Electoral College victory.** -The poll results conducted in the seven swing states in March, April, May, June, July (before Biden withdrew) showed presidential preference divided, but favoring Trump in more states than Biden. After Biden withdrew, polling showed Harris generally holding steady in polling through the end of July. In the August pre-convention polls, Harris's nuimbers improved. Each of the poll results has a greater or smaller degree of uncertainty that depends primarily on how many answers were collected. Taking into account, however, the results of 2020, although there were signs of erosion in Biden's support, the performance is better than the standalone polls would suggest. The choice of model is intended to dampen volatility. To date, the results are consistent with an eroding margin in the swing states won by the Democrats in 2020. North Carolina has been static. There has not been sufficient polling to determine if Harris is reversing the previous trend to exceed tne 2020 margins. +The poll results conducted in the seven swing states in March, April, May, June and July (before Biden withdrew) showed presidential preference divided, but favoring Trump in more states than Biden. After Biden withdrew, polling showed Harris generally holding steady in polling through the end of July. In the August pre-convention polls, Harris's nuimbers improved. Each of the poll results has a greater or smaller degree of uncertainty that depends primarily on how many responses were collected. Taking into account, however, the results of 2020, although there were signs of erosion in Biden's support, the performance is better than the standalone polls would suggest. The choice of model is intended to dampen volatility. To date, the results are consistent with an eroding margin in the swing states won by the Democrats in 2020. North Carolina has been static. Although there is a slight model improvement through the end of August, the losing margin in North Carolina has not improved. In the other six swing states, the improvements in polling do not yet reflect the improvements in polling. This is expected. The model describes a close race, possibly closer than 2020. The model is based on the *Bayesian analysis* described in [Methodology](/method]) It begins with the relative share of the two-candidate popular vote won by Biden in each of the swing states in 2020 adjusted by the effect of polling conducted to date. @@ -38,7 +39,7 @@ The model is **not** a prediction, but only a projection using stated assumption ### National -Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom (NFRF) made an advisory opinion request to the Federal Election Commission regarding the application of the Federal Election Campaign Act and Commission regulations to federal candidates' and officeholders' activities in support of a state ballot initiative. NFRF is a Section 401(c)(4) tax-exempt organization and has a political action committee. NFRF asked if federal candidates and office holders may solicit funds on behalf of NFRF and its PAC without restrictions on amount or source both before and after the ballot initiative qualifies for the election. Because ballot initiatives are not "elections" within the meaning of the Act, restrictions otherwise applicable under the Act do not apply to this type of fundraising. [See the advisory letter](https://www.fec.gov/data/legal/advisory-opinions/2024-05/) May 5, 2025. +Robert F. Kennedy [suspended his campaign](https://www.kennedy24.com) and is in the process of withdrawing his name from the ballot in states in which he had qualified. ## See also diff --git a/mi.md b/mi.md index d9626e3..4728498 100644 --- a/mi.md +++ b/mi.md @@ -16,6 +16,40 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria. * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin. * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote. +## August assessment after convention + +Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. + +~~~ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
medianmeanmodeq025q975mcserhat
0.51380.51380.5140.51340.51420.01.0009
+ + +~~~ + + ## August assessment before convention Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. diff --git a/nc.md b/nc.md index b4ab08c..46e9388 100644 --- a/nc.md +++ b/nc.md @@ -13,6 +13,37 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria. * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin. * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote. + +## August assessment after convention + +Trump wins under the *Historical* criterion. +~~~ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
medianmeanmodeq025q975mcserhat
0.4930.4930.4930.49250.49340.01.0
+ +~~~ ## August assessment before convention Trump wins under the *Historical* criterion. diff --git a/nv.md b/nv.md index 6a1edd1..7af8353 100644 --- a/nv.md +++ b/nv.md @@ -14,6 +14,37 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria. * **Stringent**—Harris wins if all of the values in the credible interval (analogous to the confidence interval) are equal to or greater than his 2020 margin. * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin. * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote. +## August assessment after convention + +Harris wins under the *Relaxed criterion* + +~~~ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
medianmeanmodeq025q975mcserhat
0.51150.51150.51160.51070.51230.01.0
+ +~~~ ## August assessment before convention @@ -35,13 +66,13 @@ Harris wins under the *Relaxed criterion* - 0.5116 - 0.5116 - 0.5117 - 0.5108 + 0.5115 + 0.5115 + 0.5113 + 0.5107 0.5124 0.0 - 1.0003 + 0.9999 diff --git a/oldnews.md b/oldnews.md index c5cacac..b39cb6b 100644 --- a/oldnews.md +++ b/oldnews.md @@ -4,6 +4,9 @@ title = "Older news" ### General +Nevadans for Reproductive Freedom (NFRF) made an advisory opinion request to the Federal Election Commission regarding the application of the Federal Election Campaign Act and Commission regulations to federal candidates' and officeholders' activities in support of a state ballot initiative. NFRF is a Section 401(c)(4) tax-exempt organization and has a political action committee. NFRF asked if federal candidates and office holders may solicit funds on behalf of NFRF and its PAC without restrictions on amount or source both before and after the ballot initiative qualifies for the election. Because ballot initiatives are not "elections" within the meaning of the Act, restrictions otherwise applicable under the Act do not apply to this type of fundraising. [See the advisory letter](https://www.fec.gov/data/legal/advisory-opinions/2024-05/) May 5, 2025. + + [RNC plans to turn out a staff of 100,000 workers and volunteers to contest election processes and results.](https://gop.com/press-release/trump-campaign-and-rnc-unveil-historic-100000-person-strong-election-integrity-program/) [Initial activities](https://www.protectthevote.com) are directed to the seven swing states plus California, Texas, Florida, New York, Ohio and Montana. April 19, 2024 ### Pennsylvania @@ -13,14 +16,7 @@ title = "Older news" Governor Kemp signed [SB 189](https://www.legis.ga.gov/legislation/64471). Among other provisions affecting the 2024 election, a party may qualify a candidate for the ballot who has obtained ballot access in 20 other states, in addition to ways previously permitted. The bill details procedures to challenge ballots on the basis of an elector’s residence, among other grounds. County election officials may now begin counting absentee ballots on election day after 7 a.m. [Summary](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/kemp-sign-sweeping-elections-bill-passed-georgia-legislature/story?id=76677927). -### Michigan - -Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. [qualified](https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/18/robert-f-kennedy-jr-michigan-presidential-ballot-2024-election/73371452007/) for the Michigan ballot on April 18, 2024. Beginning with polls conducted in May, the presidential preference polls that include his name as a choice will be used in preference to polls that limit the choice to Harris and Trump. - Democrats [gained control](https://apnews.com/article/michigan-election-majority-democrats-house-deadlocked-77f6261041701e9839c9ce2069d7c24b) of the Michigan House in two special elections. - - -### Arizona ### Arizona @@ -31,9 +27,7 @@ Democrats [gained control](https://apnews.com/article/michigan-election-majority ### Wisconsin -### Nevada - -#### Nevada acceptance of mailed ballots after election day +### Nevada acceptance of mailed ballots after election day On May 3, 2025, the Republican National Committee and others filed a complaint in Federal District Court for the District of Nevada against Nevada election officials seeking to prevent mail-in ballots not received by election day from being counted. diff --git a/pa.md b/pa.md index 64464e2..63a019a 100644 --- a/pa.md +++ b/pa.md @@ -17,6 +17,37 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria. * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin. * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote. +## August assessment after convention + +Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. + +~~~ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
medianmeanmodeq025q975mcserhat
0.50560.50560.50560.50530.5060.01.0004
+ + +~~~ + ## August assessment before convention Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. diff --git a/sources.md b/sources.md index bd09c01..0867b1e 100644 --- a/sources.md +++ b/sources.md @@ -39,82 +39,97 @@ df = CSV.read(IOBuffer(csv_data), DataFrame) *Multistate* - - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted April](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/04/Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-7.pdf) - - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted May](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/05/Bloomberg-Election-Tracking-Wave-8-Toplines-Crosstabs.pdf) - - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted March](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/03/Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-6.pdf) + + - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted August post-convention](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-29/election-2024-poll-harris-leads-or-ties-with-trump-in-swing-states?leadSource=uverify%20wall) - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted after July 21](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/07/Bloomberg-Swing-State-Wave-10.pdf) + - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted April](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/04/Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-7.pdf) - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted July pre-July 21](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/07/Bloomberg-Election-Tracking-Wave-9-Toplines-Crosstabs.pdf) - - [Emerson College: conducted June](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vGeTKW3MRDR5dXHM2IjM8ORz7HOyP5Le/edit?gid=532631346#gid=532631346) + - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted March](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/03/Bloomberg_2024-Election-Tracking-Wave-6.pdf) + - [Bloomberg/Morning Consult: conducted May](https://pro-assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/2024/05/Bloomberg-Election-Tracking-Wave-8-Toplines-Crosstabs.pdf) + - [CNN: conducted August after convention](https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/25088820/cnn-polls-across-six-battlegrounds-find-georgia-and-pennsylvania-are-key-toss-ups.pdf) + - [CBS/YouGov: conducted early September](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/harris-trump-poll-pennsylvania-michigan-wisconsin-debate/) - [Emerson College: conducted April](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/trump-holds-edge-over-biden-in-seven-key-swing-state-polls/) - - [Emerson College: conducted March](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/category/state-poll/) + - [Emerson College: conducted August after convention](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/august-2024-swing-state-polls-toss-up-presidential-election-in-swing-states/) - [Emerson College: conducted July pre-Harris](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zJrIOcXtzIRkaa34BDkxoVe9HY3stwFc/edit?gid=1704598980#gid=1704598980) + - [Emerson College: conducted June](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vGeTKW3MRDR5dXHM2IjM8ORz7HOyP5Le/edit?gid=532631346#gid=532631346) + - [Emerson College: conducted March](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/category/state-poll/) + - [Fox News: conducted August post-convention](https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-closes-gap-trump-sun-belt-states) - [New York Times/Sienna: conducted May](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/05/13/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html) - [Trafalger Group: conducted August](https://pollingplus.com/news/pollingplus-exclusive-top-two-presidential-cycle-pollsters-towery-and-cahaly-release-battleground-polls/) - [Wall Street Journal: conducted March ]((https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/WSJ_Swing_States_Partial_March_2024.pdf)) - [YouGov: conducted July pre-Harris](https://ygo-assets-websites-editorial-emea.yougov.net/documents/Times_SAY24_20240712_state_poll_results.pdf) - - --- *Single State* * Arizona - - [Fox News: conducted March](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/03/Fox_March-7-11-2024_Arizona_Topline_March-13-Release.pdf) - - [Fox News: conducted June](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-1-4-2024_ARIZONA_Topline_June-6-Release.pdf) - - [CBS: conducted May](https://www.scribd.com/document/733845819/cbsnews-20240519-AZ-1-SUN#1fullscreen=1) - - [Nobel Predictive Insights: conducted May](https://www.scribd.com/document/733845819/cbsnews-20240519-AZ-1-SUN#1fullscreen=1) - - [New York Times: conducted August](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-arizona-toplines.html) - [American Greatness: conducted June](https://cdn.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2024/06/AZ-June-Toplines.pdf) + - [American Greatness conducted early September](https://amgreatness.com/2024/09/06/arizona-a-dead-heat-between-trump-harris-trump-leads-on-issues-and-authenticity/) + - [CBS: conducted May](https://www.scribd.com/document/733845819/cbsnews-20240519-AZ-1-SUN#1fullscreen=1) - [Emerson College: conducted June](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vGeTKW3MRDR5dXHM2IjM8ORz7HOyP5Le/edit?gid=532631346#gid=532631346) - - [Rasmussen Reports: conducted June](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/public_surveys/crosstabs_2_arizona_june_2024) - - [Public Policy Polling conducted July pre-Harris](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/presidential-candidates-third-party-independent.html) + - [Fox News: conducted June](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-1-4-2024_ARIZONA_Topline_June-6-Release.pdf) + - [Fox News: conducted March](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/03/Fox_March-7-11-2024_Arizona_Topline_March-13-Release.pdf) + - [Fox: conducted August after convention](https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-harris-closes-gap-trump-sun-belt-states) + - [Insider Advantage: conducted August after convention](https://insideradvantage.com/arizona-trump-leads-by-one-point-gallego-up-by-four/) - [Insider Advantage: conducted July pre-Harris](https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-cross-tabs-for-insideradvantage-az-nv-and-pa-july-15-16-surveys/) + - [New York Times: conducted August](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-arizona-toplines.html) + - [Nobel Predictive Insights: conducted May](https://www.scribd.com/document/733845819/cbsnews-20240519-AZ-1-SUN#1fullscreen=1) + - [Public Policy Polling conducted July pre-Harris](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/politics/presidential-candidates-third-party-independent.html) + - [Rasmussen Reports: conducted June](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/public_surveys/crosstabs_2_arizona_june_2024) * Georgia - [Fox News: conducted April](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/04/Fox_April-11-16-2024_GEORGIA_Topline_April-18-Release-1.pdf) - [Insider Advantage: conducted July pre-Harris](https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-tabs-for-insideradvantage-fox5-atlanta-survey/) + - [Insider Advantage: conducted August post-convection](https://insideradvantage.com/north-carolina-trump-leads-harris-by-one-point-rounded-numbers-below-tabs/) * Michigan + - [Mitchell Research and Communications: conducted May](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Mitchell-MIRS_MI_Poll_Press_Release_-_Presidential_Race_517_PM_5-27-24.pdf) + - [Atlantic Journal Constitution: completed June](https://www.ajc.com/news/am-atl-poll-trump-edging-biden/2SN4MIOROZA4DFOFDNXE2CFCJU/) - [CBS: conducted in April](https://www.scribd.com/document/727317994/Cbsnews-20240428-MI-SUN) + - [EPIC-MRA: conducted in July, pre-Harris](https://ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net/epic-mra/press/Stwd_Survey_July2024_Media_Freq.pdf) - [Fox News: conducted April](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/04/Fox_April-11-16-2024_MICHIGAN_Topline_April-18-Release.pdf) + - [Fox News: conducted June](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-1-4-2024_NEVADA_Topline_June-6-Release.pdf) + - [Fox News: conducted post-July 21](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/07/Fox_July-22-24-2024_Michigan_Topline_July-26-Release.pdf) - [Marketing Resource Group: conducted April](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/michigan-poll-presidential-election-Press_Release.pdf) - [Mitchell Research and Communications: conducted March](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Mitchell-MIRS_MI_Poll_Press_Release_-_Presidential_Race_12_NOON_3-20-24.pdf) - - [Mitchell Research and Communications: conducted May](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Mitchell-MIRS_MI_Poll_Press_Release_-_Presidential_Race_517_PM_5-27-24.pdf) - [New York Times - conducted August](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-georgia-toplines.html) - - [Atlantic Journal Constitution: completed June](https://www.ajc.com/news/am-atl-poll-trump-edging-biden/2SN4MIOROZA4DFOFDNXE2CFCJU/) - - [Quinnipiac University: conducted March](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3893) - [Quinnipiac University: conducted June](https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ga/ga06052024_ggwb04.pdf) - - [Fox News: conducted June](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-1-4-2024_NEVADA_Topline_June-6-Release.pdf) - - [Fox News: conducted post-July 21](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/07/Fox_July-22-24-2024_Michigan_Topline_July-26-Release.pdf) - - [EPIC-MRA: conducted in July, pre-Harris](https://ssl2002.webhosting.comcast.net/epic-mra/press/Stwd_Survey_July2024_Media_Freq.pdf) + - [Quinnipiac University: conducted March](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3893) - [Trafalger: conducted July pre-Harris](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/MI-Gen-Pres-Poll-Report-0718.pdf) + - [Trafalger: conducted August post-convention](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/MI-Gen-Pres-Poll-Report-0831.pdf) * Pennsylvania + - [American Greatness: conducted after July 21](https://cdn.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2024/07/PA-July-Toplines.pdf) - [CBS: conducted April](https://www.scribd.com/document/727318459/Cbsnews-20240428-PA-SUN) - [Emerson College: conducted August](https://emersoncollegepolling.com/pennsylvania-2024-poll-trump-49-harris-48/) - - [Franklin & Marshall College Poll: conducted -March](https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-april-2024) - [Fox News: conducted after July 21](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/07/Fox_July-22-24-2024_Pennsylvania_Topline_July-26-Release.pdf) - - [American Greatness: conducted after July 21](https://cdn.amgreatness.com/app/uploads/2024/07/PA-July-Toplines.pdf) - [Quinnipac: conducted August](https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3902) +March](https://www.fandmpoll.org/franklin-marshall-poll-release-april-2024) + - [Trafalger: conducted August, post-convention](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/PA-24-General-0830-Poll-Report.pdf) * Nevada - - [New York Times, conducted August](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-nevada-toplines.html) + - [Insider Advantage: conducted August after convention](https://insideradvantage.com/nevada-trump-leads-by-one-point-rosen-holds-substantial-lead-in-senate-contest/) + - [New York Times: conducted August before convention](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-nevada-toplines.html) * North Carolina - - [High Point: conduct May](https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/103memo.pdf) + - [ECU: conducted August after convention](https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/north-carolina-election-heats-up-trump-leads-harris-by-1-point-in-north-carolina-stein-widens-advantage-over-robinson-in-race-for-governor) - [Marist: conducted March ](https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/Marist-Poll_North-Carolina-NOS-and-Tables_202403181357.pdf) + - [Carolina Journal: conducted August](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Carolina_Journal_NC_August.pdf) + - [ECU: conducted June](https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/trump-leads-biden-by-5-points-in-north-carolina-gubernatorial-election-remains-close-with-stein-up-1-on-robinson-trump-guilty-verdict-has-little-impact-on-nc-voter-intentions-for-november) + - [EPIC-MRA: conducted August](https://www.woodtv.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/51/2024/08/EPIC-MRA-poll-results-083024.pdf?ipid=promo-link-block1) + - [High Point: conducted May](https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/103memo.pdf) - [Highpoint University: conducted March](https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/102memo.pdf) - [Highpoint University: conducted May](https://www.highpoint.edu/src/files/2023/08/103memo.pdf) + - [Insider Advantage: conducted August post convention](https://insideradvantage.com/north-carolina-trump-leads-harris-by-one-point-rounded-numbers-below-tabs/) + - [Insider Advantage: conducted July pre-Harris](https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-cross-tabs-for-insideradvantage-az-nv-and-pa-july-15-16-surveys/) - [Mason-Dixon: conducted April](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4603458-trump-leads-biden-in-north-carolina-poll/) - [North Carolina, conducted August](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/17/us/elections/times-siena-poll-north-carolina-toplines.html) - [Quinnipiac: conducted April](https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/nc/nc04102024_ncaa99.pdf) - [WRAL: conducted March](https://wwwcache.wral.com/asset/news/state/nccapitol/2024/03/12/21325738/3247050-Poll_Report_-_PollPrint-DMID1-628w54pob.pdf) - - [ECU: conducted June](https://surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com/pr/trump-leads-biden-by-5-points-in-north-carolina-gubernatorial-election-remains-close-with-stein-up-1-on-robinson-trump-guilty-verdict-has-little-impact-on-nc-voter-intentions-for-november) - - [Insider Advantage: conducted July pre-Harris](https://insideradvantage.com/top-line-cross-tabs-for-insideradvantage-az-nv-and-pa-july-15-16-surveys/) - - [Carolina Journal: conducted August](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2024/Carolina_Journal_NC_August.pdf) * Wisconsin + - [CBS: conducted April](https://www.scribd.com/document/727319278/Cbsnews-20240428-WI-SUN) - - [Fox News: conducted April](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/04/b002d3b3-Fox_April-11-16-2024_WISCONSIN_Topline_April-18-Release.pdf) - [Fox News: conducted after July 21](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/07/Fox_July-22-24-2024_Wisconsin_Topline_July-26-Release.pdf) - - [Quinnipiac conducted May](https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/wi/wi05082024_wizz76.pdf) - + - [Fox News: conducted April](https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/04/b002d3b3-Fox_April-11-16-2024_WISCONSIN_Topline_April-18-Release.pdf) + - [Quinnipiac: conducted May](https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/wi/wi05082024_wizz76.pdf) + - [Trafalger: conducted August post-convention](https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/WI-Gen-Pres-Poll-Report-0831.pdf) + --- [^3]: Results selected for analysis here are for two-way preference questions if asked, except in cases in which Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. qualified for the ballot prior to poll. For polls with only multiple choices in addition to Harris and Trump, their respective percentages of responses were recorded. In all cases those percentages were normalized to 100% to reflect the relative, not absolute, support of the two candidates. --- diff --git a/wi.md b/wi.md index 0e30dde..07752c6 100644 --- a/wi.md +++ b/wi.md @@ -15,7 +15,37 @@ Assessments are based on three criteria. * **Historical**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 2020 margin. * **Relaxed**—fewer than 2.5% of the values in the credible interval are less than 50.01% of the two candidate vote. +## August assessment after convention +Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion. + +~~~ + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
medianmeanmodeq025q975mcserhat
0.5030.5030.5030.50250.50350.01.0004
+ +~~~ ## August assessment before convention Harris wins under the *Relaxed* criterion.