+++ title = "2020 vs. 2024 voters" +++
The model used for assessments on SwingWatch takes into account the results of the 2020 election and current swing state survey results.
Voters who did not vote in 2020 are not reflected in the results of the 2020 election (the "priors" in the model). Those who did not vote, however, may be reflected in polling results which are the "posteriors" in the model.
- Ineligible
- died
- moved away
- incarcerated
- still too young
- still not a naturalized citizen
- Still not politically engaged
- Became eligible
- moved in
- voting rights restored
- turned 18
- became a naturalized citizen
- Became politically engaged
These voters are captured in the priors part of the model but are not reflected, for the most part, in the polling.
- Became ineligible
- died
- moved way
- incarcerated
- Became politically unengaged
These voters may be picked up by polling.
- Still politically engaged and will flip
- Changed view of candidates
- Different issues came to the fore
- Still politically engaged and will not flip
- No change in views
The combined effect is that changes in the electorate make the 2020 election and the polling less reflective of the composition of the electorate for 2024 than they would be if the electorate had remained constant.