Skip to content

Latest commit

 

History

History
87 lines (67 loc) · 4.03 KB

focus.md

File metadata and controls

87 lines (67 loc) · 4.03 KB
Raw

+++ title = "Focus" +++

Without the Nebraska Second

The models assume that except for the seven swing states, each candidate will win the states and election districts won in 2020. For Harris, the total includes a Nebraska district that centers on Omaha. Nebraska is one of two states that have this arrangement. The other is Maine. An attempt was made earlier this year to change Nebraska to the winner-take-all system used by other states. It was unsuccessful, and it is not clear if another attempt will be made. Should it be or if the Nebraska Second this time votes for Trump, possible outcomes differ.

A tie outcome that was produced by Harris winning only Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, now has three different possible scenarios

  • Wisconsin, Georgia and Pennsylvania
  • Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina
  • Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania

Those three scenarios, which were formally wins, are replaced as the smallest possible victories by

  • Nevada, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania
  • Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania
  • Arizona, Pennsylvania and NC North Carolina

Without Pennsylvania and North Carolina combined

In 2020, Harris won Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes by 80,555 and Trump won North Carolina's 15 electoral votes by 74,483. These were the too largest margins in 2020 in count. As between the two candidates1, disregarding third party candidates, the margin in Pennsylvania was 1.18% in favor of Harris and the margin in North Carolina was 1.37% in favor of Trump.

In 2024, due to the use of the 2020 Census for apportionment, Pennsylvania will have 19 electoral votes and North Carolina will have 16.

Without Harris wins in both states, the winning scenarios for Harris narrow from 70 to just five combinations of the remaining swing states.

<table>
  <thead>
    <tr class = "header headerLastRow">
      <th style = "text-align: right;">States won by Harris </th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Electoral Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Harris Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Trump Votes</th>
      <th style = "text-align: right;">Result</th>
    </tr>
  </thead>
  <tbody>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, GA, MI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">47</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">272</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">266</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, AZ, GA, MI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">48</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">273</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">265</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">WI, AZ, GA, MI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">52</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">277</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">261</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
    <tr>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">NV, WI, AZ, GA, MI</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">58</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">283</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">255</td>
      <td style = "text-align: right;">Harris</td>
    </tr>
  </tbody>
</table>

All Harris victory scenarios without both Pennsylvania and North Carolina require winning both Georgia (16 votes) and Michigan (15 votes) plus Nevada (6 votes) and one of Arizona (11 votes) and Wisconsin (10 votes) or, without Nevada both Arizona and Wisconsin."

<img src="/assets/img/maps/no_pa_nc.png" style="width: 100%; display: block;">

Footnotes

  1. Margins of victory are calculated as a candidate's popular vote divided by the combined popular vote for each candidate, neglecting third-party candidates. ↩