From 058e7e694dfe6a13b794b61c06ab93dba77564e1 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: peterdudfield <peter.dudfield@hotmail.com>
Date: Thu, 21 Dec 2023 15:28:54 +0000
Subject: [PATCH 1/2] add day time metrics also

---
 quartz_solar_forecast/eval/metrics.py | 45 ++++++---------------------
 quartz_solar_forecast/evaluation.py   |  3 +-
 2 files changed, 12 insertions(+), 36 deletions(-)

diff --git a/quartz_solar_forecast/eval/metrics.py b/quartz_solar_forecast/eval/metrics.py
index a80fa943..fedd2220 100644
--- a/quartz_solar_forecast/eval/metrics.py
+++ b/quartz_solar_forecast/eval/metrics.py
@@ -2,10 +2,12 @@
 import pandas as pd
 
 
-def metrics(results_df: pd.DataFrame, pv_metadata: pd.DataFrame):
+def metrics(results_df: pd.DataFrame, pv_metadata: pd.DataFrame, include_night: bool = False):
     """
     Calculate and print metrics: MAE
 
+    There is an option to include nighttime in the calculation of the MAE.
+
     results_df dataframe with the following columns
     - timestamp
     - pv_id
@@ -19,6 +21,10 @@ def metrics(results_df: pd.DataFrame, pv_metadata: pd.DataFrame):
 
     """
 
+    # remove night time
+    if not include_night:
+        results_df = results_df[results_df["generation_power"] > 0.1]
+
     # merge pv_metadata with results_df
     results_df = pd.merge(results_df, pv_metadata, on="pv_id")
 
@@ -34,40 +40,9 @@ def metrics(results_df: pd.DataFrame, pv_metadata: pd.DataFrame):
     # calculate metrics over the different horizons hours
     # find all unique horizon_hours
     horizon_hours = results_df["horizon_hour"].unique()
-    for horizon_hour in horizon_hours:
-        # filter results_df to only include the horizon_hour
-        results_df_horizon = results_df[results_df["horizon_hour"] == horizon_hour]
-        mae = np.round(
-            (results_df_horizon["forecast_power"] - results_df_horizon["generation_power"])
-            .abs()
-            .mean(),
-            3,
-        )
-        sem = np.round(
-            (
-                (results_df_horizon["forecast_power"] - results_df_horizon["generation_power"])
-                .abs()
-                .std()
-                / 50 ** 0.5
-            ),
-            3,
-        )
-        mae_normalized = np.round(
-            (
-                (results_df_horizon["forecast_power"] - results_df_horizon["generation_power"])
-                / results_df_horizon["capacity"]
-            )
-            .abs()
-            .mean(),
-            3,
-        )
-
-        print(
-            f"MAE for horizon {horizon_hour}: {mae} +- {1.96*sem}. Normalized MAE: {mae_normalized} %"
-        )
+    horizon_groups = [[x, x] for x in horizon_hours]
+    horizon_groups += [[3, 4], [5, 8], [9, 16], [17, 24], [24, 48], [0, 36]]
 
-    # calculate metrics over the different horizon groups
-    horizon_groups = [[0, 0], [1, 1], [2, 2], [3, 4], [5, 8], [9, 16], [17, 24], [24, 48]]
     for horizon_group in horizon_groups:
         horizon_group_df = results_df[
             results_df["horizon_hour"].between(horizon_group[0], horizon_group[1])
@@ -99,7 +74,7 @@ def metrics(results_df: pd.DataFrame, pv_metadata: pd.DataFrame):
         )
 
         print(
-            f"MAE for horizon {horizon_group}: {mae} +- {1.96*sem}. mae_normalized: {mae_normalized} %"
+            f"MAE for horizon {horizon_group}: {mae} +- {1.96*sem}. mae_normalized: {100*mae_normalized} %"
         )
 
         # TODO add more metrics using ocf_ml_metrics
diff --git a/quartz_solar_forecast/evaluation.py b/quartz_solar_forecast/evaluation.py
index b455db72..ee3d6f87 100644
--- a/quartz_solar_forecast/evaluation.py
+++ b/quartz_solar_forecast/evaluation.py
@@ -57,7 +57,8 @@ def run_eval(testset_path: str = "quartz_solar_forecast/dataset/testset.csv"):
     results_df.to_csv("results.csv")
 
     # Calculate and print metrics: MAE
-    metrics(results_df, pv_metadata)
+    metrics(results_df, pv_metadata, include_night=True)
+    metrics(results_df, pv_metadata, include_night=False)
 
     # Visualizations
     # TODO

From 3fe96e444eb6893e5cc9f30e5a1398097cd5de3e Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: peterdudfield <peter.dudfield@hotmail.com>
Date: Thu, 21 Dec 2023 15:30:34 +0000
Subject: [PATCH 2/2] update readme.md

---
 README.md | 1 +
 1 file changed, 1 insertion(+)

diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
index 11a27f60..61819889 100644
--- a/README.md
+++ b/README.md
@@ -77,6 +77,7 @@ The MAE is 0.1906 kw across all horizons.
 | 17 - 24  | 0.173 +- 0.01 | 5.3 |
 | 24 - 48  | 0.201 +- 0.01 | 6.1 |
 
+If we exclude nighttime, then the average MAE [%] from 0 to 36 forecast hours is 13.0%. 
 
 Notes: 
 - THe MAE in % is the MAE divided by the capacity of the PV site. We acknowledge there are a number of different ways to do this.