diff --git a/experiments/india/006_da_only/da_only.md b/experiments/india/006_da_only/da_only.md index e69de29b..56cee7c7 100644 --- a/experiments/india/006_da_only/da_only.md +++ b/experiments/india/006_da_only/da_only.md @@ -0,0 +1,32 @@ +## DA forecasts only + +The idea was to create a forecast for DA (day-ahead) only for Windnet. +We hope this would bring down the DA MAE values. + +We do this by not forecasting the first X hours. + +Unfortunately, it doesnt not look like ignore X hours, make the DA forecast better. + +## Experiments + +1. Baseline - [here](https://wandb.ai/openclimatefix/india/runs/miszfep5) +2. Ignore first 6 hours - [here](https://wandb.ai/openclimatefix/india/runs/uosk0qug) +3. Ignore first 12 hours - [here](https://wandb.ai/openclimatefix/india/runs/s9cnn4ei) + +## Results + +| Timestep | all MAE % | 6 MAE % | 12 MAE % | +| --- | --- |---------|---------| +| 0-0 minutes | nan | nan | nan | +| 15-15 minutes | nan | nan | nan | +| 30-45 minutes | 0.065 | nan | nan | +| 45-60 minutes | 0.066 | nan | nan | +| 60-120 minutes | 0.063 | nan | nan | +| 120-240 minutes | 0.063 | nan | nan | +| 240-360 minutes | 0.064 | nan | nan | +| 360-480 minutes | 0.065 | 0.068 | nan | +| 480-720 minutes | 0.067 | 0.065 | nan | +| 720-1440 minutes | 0.068 | 0.065 | 0.065 | +| 1440-2880 minutes | 0.071 | 0.071 | 0.071 | + +![](mae_steps.png "mae_steps")