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<html><head><title>niplav</title>
<link href="./favicon.png" rel="shortcut icon" type="image/png"/>
<link href="main.css" rel="stylesheet" type="text/css"/>
<meta content="text/html; charset=utf-8" http-equiv="Content-Type"/>
<!DOCTYPE HTML>
<style type="text/css">
code.has-jax {font: inherit; font-size: 100%; background: inherit; border: inherit;}
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<script>
document.addEventListener('DOMContentLoaded', function () {
// Change the title to the h1 header
var title = document.querySelector('h1')
if(title) {
var title_elem = document.querySelector('title')
title_elem.textContent=title.textContent + " – niplav"
}
});
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</head><body><p><img alt="Sol Plav" src="./favicon.png" title="kakja kjerbas unjobares"/></p>
<p><em>author: niplav, created: 2019-03-20, modified: 2024-12-16, language: english, status: in progress, importance: 6, confidence: log</em></p>
<blockquote>
<p><strong>This is the website of niplav. It contains texts on different topics,
including (but not limited to) forecasting, futurism, unusual social
behavior and philosophy, as well as translations and transcriptions
of different texts, chronological archives of blogs and programming
projects.</strong></p>
<p><strong>More information about the website and its author can be
found on the <a href="./about.html">about</a> page; for recent additions
and changes, see the <a href="./changelog.html">changelog</a>, and the
corresponding <a href="https://niplav.substack.com/feed">RSS feed</a> or
<a href="https://niplav.substack.com/">substack</a><sup id="fnref1"><a href="#fn1" rel="footnote">1</a></sup>.</strong></p>
<p><strong>I <a href="./services.html">can be hired</a> to investigate research questions, write
code, design and execute experiments, analyze data and make predictions.</strong></p>
<p><strong><a href="./content_warning.html">Content warning</a>.</strong></p>
</blockquote><div class="toc"><div class="toc-title">Contents</div><ul><li><a href="#Best_Of">Best Of</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Writing">Writing</a><ul><li><a href="#Nonfiction">Nonfiction</a><ul><li><a href="#AI_Alignment">AI Alignment</a><ul><li><a href="#Technical">Technical</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Strategy">Strategy</a><ul></ul></li></ul></li><li><a href="#Forecasting">Forecasting</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Programming__Computer_Science">Programming & Computer Science</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Mathematics">Mathematics</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Quantified_Self">Quantified Self</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Practical">Practical</a><ul><li><a href="#PickUp">Pick-Up</a><ul></ul></li></ul></li><li><a href="#Existential_Risk">Existential Risk</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Philosophy">Philosophy</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Psychology">Psychology</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Collections">Collections</a><ul></ul></li></ul></li><li><a href="#Other">Other</a><ul><li><a href="#Reports">Reports</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Textbooks">Textbooks</a><ul></ul></li></ul></li><li><a href="#Fiction">Fiction</a><ul></ul></li></ul></li><li><a href="#Translations">Translations</a><ul><li><a href="#English_to_German">English to German</a><ul></ul></li></ul></li><li><a href="#Transcriptions">Transcriptions</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Archives">Archives</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Programming">Programming</a><ul></ul></li><li><a href="#Miscellaneous">Miscellaneous</a><ul><li><a href="#Media_Consumption">Media Consumption</a><ul></ul></li></ul></li></ul></div>
<h1 id="Content"><a class="hanchor" href="#Content">Content</a></h1>
<h2 id="Best_Of"><a class="hanchor" href="#Best_Of">Best Of</a></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="./considerations_on_cryonics.html">Cryonics Cost-Benefit Analysis</a></li>
<li><a href="./spans.html">Have Attention Spans Been Declining?</a></li>
<li><a href="./eschews.html">High Status Eschews Quantification of Performance</a></li>
<li><a href="./range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html">Range and Forecasting Accuracy</a></li>
<li><a href="./subscripts.html">Subscripts for Probabilities</a></li>
<li><a href="./nootropics.html">Nootropics</a></li>
<li><a href="./nuclear.html">Two Reasons For Restarting the Testing of Nuclear Weapons</a></li>
<li><a href="./iqisa.html">Iqisa: A Library For Handling Forecasting Datasets</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="Writing"><a class="hanchor" href="#Writing">Writing</a></h2>
<h3 id="Nonfiction"><a class="hanchor" href="#Nonfiction">Nonfiction</a></h3>
<h4 id="AI_Alignment"><a class="hanchor" href="#AI_Alignment">AI Alignment</a></h4>
<h5 id="Technical"><a class="hanchor" href="#Technical">Technical</a></h5>
<ul>
<li><a href="./resolving.html">Resolving von Neumann-Morgenstern Inconsistent Preferences</a></li>
</ul>
<h5 id="Strategy"><a class="hanchor" href="#Strategy">Strategy</a></h5>
<ul>
<li><a href="./bcis_and_alignment.html">Brain-Computer Interfaces and AI Alignment</a></li>
<li><a href="./china.html">A TAI Race With China Can Be Better Than Not Racing</a></li>
<li><a href="./foom.html">On Discontinuous and Fast Takeoff</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Forecasting"><a class="hanchor" href="#Forecasting">Forecasting</a></h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="./range_and_forecasting_accuracy.html">Range and Forecasting Accuracy</a></li>
<li><a href="./subscripts.html">Subscripts for Probabilities</a></li>
<li><a href="./decompose.html">On The Effectiveness Of Question Decomposition</a></li>
<li><a href="./precision.html">Precision of Sets of Forecasts</a></li>
<li><a href="./iqisa.html">Iqisa: A Library For Handling Forecasting Datasets</a>
<ul>
<li><a href="./iqisadoc.html">Documentation</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li><a href="./forecasters.html">Forecasters: What Do They Know? Do They Know Things?? Let's Find Out!</a></li>
<li><a href="./notes_on_predictions.html">Notes on Predictions</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Programming__Computer_Science"><a class="hanchor" href="#Programming__Computer_Science">Programming & Computer Science</a></h4>
<blockquote>
<p>“Stepchild”! That one word says it all. There’s a whole
Tolstoyan novel in it, or maybe a Henry James, or at least a Grimm
Brothers fairy tale. Computer science is the poor relation, the orphan,
the foundling—taken in by a grand family but never taken seriously,
never allowed to forget its doubtful origins. Or else computer science is
the arriviste, the rich American cousin with too much cash and too little
taste, who tears down the mossy old manse and puts up a spiffy new house
designed by Frank Gehry. Or do we have a tale of sibling rivalry—the two
children with different visions of the future for the family firm, neither
of whom can ever feel secure in the love of a cold and distant parent?</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>—<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Hayes_(scientist)">Brian Hayes</a>, <a href="http://bit-player.org/2007/the-stepchild">“The stepchild”</a>, 2007</em></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="./pipe_rings.html">Pipe Rings</a></li>
<li><a href="./99_klong_problems.html">K-99: Ninety-Nine Klong Problems</a></li>
<li><a href="./99_problems_klong_solution.html">99 Problems Klong Solution</a></li>
<li><a href="./hodge.html">Nothing to See Here, Just An Implementation of HodgeRank</a></li>
<li><a href="./hyperoperators.html">Implementing Commutative Hyperoperations</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Mathematics"><a class="hanchor" href="#Mathematics">Mathematics</a></h4>
<blockquote>
<p>Den Menschen ist der Sinn ins Innere gegeben,<br/>
Daſs sie als anerkannt das Beſte wählen,<br/>
Er gilt als Ziel, er ist das wahre Leben,<br/>
Von dem Sichgeistigen des Lebens Jahre zählen.</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>—Friedrich Hölderlin, “Fragment”, 1800</em></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="./cause.html">How Often Does ¬Correlation ⇏ ¬Causation?</a></li>
<li><a href="./options.html">How Often Does Taking Away Options Help?</a></li>
<li><a href="./dimension.html">t-SNE and UMAP Don't Produce Clusters on Random Data</a></li>
<li><a href="./equally_many_heads_and_tails.html">Equally Many Heads and Tails</a></li>
<li><a href="./mathematics_notation_convention.html">Mathematics Notation Convention</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Quantified_Self"><a class="hanchor" href="#Quantified_Self">Quantified Self</a></h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="./nootropics.html">Nootropics</a></li>
<li><a href="./platforms.html">Using Prediction Platforms to Select Quantified Self Experiments</a></li>
<li><a href="./data.html">Types & Methods of Data Collection I Use</a></li>
<li><a href="./quality.html">Does Recent Masturbation Decrease Meditation Quality?</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Practical"><a class="hanchor" href="#Practical">Practical</a></h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="./considerations_on_cryonics.html">Cryonics Cost-Benefit Analysis</a></li>
<li><a href="./cuboid.html">Building a Cuboid</a></li>
</ul>
<h5 id="PickUp"><a class="hanchor" href="#PickUp">Pick-Up</a></h5>
<blockquote>
<p>The American girl is well acquainted with her body’s seductive
capacity. She knows it lies in the face, and in expressive eyes,
and thirsty lips. She knows seductiveness lies in the round breasts,
the full buttocks, and in the shapely thighs, sleek legs and she shows
all this and does not hide it. She knows it lies in clothes: in bright
colors that awaken primal sensations, and in designs that reveal the
temptations of the body— and in American girls these are sometimes live,
screaming temptations! Then she adds to all this the fetching laugh,
the naked looks, and the bold moves, and she does not ignore this for
one moment or forget it!</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>—<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayyid_Qutb">Sayyid Qutb ash-Shaheed</a>, <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_America_I_Have_Seen">“The America I Have Seen”</a> p. 16, 1951</em></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="./daygame_cost_benefit.html">Daygame Cost-Benefit Analysis</a></li>
<li><a href="./bandit.html">Using A Multi-Armed Bandit to Select Daygame Locations</a></li>
<li><a href="./notes_on_pickup.html">Notes on Pickup</a></li>
<li><a href="./pickup_reports.html">Pickup Reports</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Existential_Risk"><a class="hanchor" href="#Existential_Risk">Existential Risk</a></h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="./nuclear.html">Two Reasons For Restarting the Testing of Nuclear Weapons</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Philosophy"><a class="hanchor" href="#Philosophy">Philosophy</a></h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="./utilitarian_compliments.html">Compliments as Utilitarian Praxis</a></li>
<li><a href="./general.html">Trying to Disambiguate Different Questions about Whether Humans are Turing Machines</a></li>
<li><a href="./consciousness_diagram.html">Using Diagrams to Visualize Conceptions of Intelligence, Consciousness and Sentience</a></li>
<li><a href="./preference.html">Arguments Against Preference Utilitarianism</a></li>
<li><a href="./notes_on_ethics.html">Notes on Ethics</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Psychology"><a class="hanchor" href="#Psychology">Psychology</a></h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="./spans.html">Have Attention Spans Been Declining?</a></li>
<li><a href="./estimated_life_expectancy.html">Subjective Estimates of Life Expectancy</a></li>
<li><a href="./transfer.html">Transfer Learning in Humans</a></li>
<li><a href="./stimulation.html">Brain Stimulation for Valence</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Collections"><a class="hanchor" href="#Collections">Collections</a></h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="./inadequacies.html">Some Civilizational Inadequacies</a></li>
<li><a href="./rationalist_gods.html">Rationalist Gods</a></li>
<li><a href="./99_problems_collection.html">99 Problems</a></li>
<li><a href="./sites.html">Recommendation-Worthy Websites</a></li>
</ul>
<h3 id="Other"><a class="hanchor" href="#Other">Other</a></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="./against_applause.html">Against Applause After Classical Concerts</a></li>
<li><a href="./two_people_on_a_planet.html">Two People on a Planet</a></li>
<li><a href="./qualia.html">Progress in Qualia</a></li>
<li><a href="./life_advice.html">Life Advice</a></li>
<li><a href="./eccentric.html">If I Was An Eccentric Trillionaire</a></li>
<li><a href="./eschews.html">High Status Eschews Quantification of Performance</a></li>
<li><a href="./notes.html">Notes</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Reports"><a class="hanchor" href="#Reports">Reports</a></h4>
<ul>
<li><a href="./reports.html">Reports</a></li>
</ul>
<h4 id="Textbooks"><a class="hanchor" href="#Textbooks">Textbooks</a></h4>
<blockquote>
<p>Shut up! Shut up and leave me alone with my books!</p>
</blockquote>
<p><em>—Zack M. Davis, <a href="http://zackmdavis.net/blog/2012/12/a-philosophy-of-education/">“A Philosophy of Education”</a>, 2012</em></p>
<ul>
<li><a href="./aima_solutions.html">Solutions to “Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach”</a></li>
<li><a href="./nst_solutions.html">Solutions to “Naïve Set Theory”</a></li>
<li><a href="./pil_solutions.html">Solutions to “Programming in Lua”</a></li>
<li><a href="./rs_solutions.html">Solutions to “Reactive Systems”</a></li>
<li><a href="./ito_solutions.html">Solutions to “Introduction to Optimization”</a></li>
<li><a href="./pg_solutions.html">Solutions to “Population Genetics”</a></li>
<li><a href="./mfis_solutions.html">Solutions to “Maths for Intelligent Systems”</a></li>
<li><a href="./napkin_solutions.html">Solutions to “An Infinitely Large Napkin”</a></li>
<li><a href="./tjpb_exercises.html">Exercises from “The Jazz Piano Book”</a></li>
<li><a href="./administrativa_for_textbooks.html">Administrativa for Textbooks</a></li>
</ul>
<h3 id="Fiction"><a class="hanchor" href="#Fiction">Fiction</a></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="./buch_stab.html">Buch Stab</a></li>
<li><a href="./platte.html">Platte</a></li>
<li><a href="./microfiction.html">Microfiction</a></li>
<li><a href="./language.html">Playing with Language</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="Translations"><a class="hanchor" href="#Translations">Translations</a></h2>
<h3 id="English_to_German"><a class="hanchor" href="#English_to_German">English to German</a></h3>
<ul>
<li><a href="./metamodernistisches_manifest.html">Metamodernistisches // Manifest</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="Transcriptions"><a class="hanchor" href="#Transcriptions">Transcriptions</a></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="./tao_te_king.html">Tao Tê King</a></li>
<li><a href="./declaration.html">A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="Archives"><a class="hanchor" href="#Archives">Archives</a></h2>
<p>I try to read blogs completely, mostly <a href="https://entirelyuseless.com/2018/06/12/start-at-the-beginning/" title="Start at the Beginning">starting at the
beginning</a>
because most blogs are not organized by topic (tagging/categorization
systems don't count, don't be ridiculous). But blog archives are
usually hard to navigate and it is often difficult to keep track of my
current position in the blog (especially with yearly/monthly WordPress
archives). To salvage this, I scrape blog archives and arrange them
chronologically.</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="./bp_chrono.html">Bit-Player Posts Chronological Index</a></li>
<li><a href="./ob_chrono.html">Overcoming Bias Posts Chronological Index</a></li>
<li><a href="./so_chrono.html">Shtetl Optimized Posts Chronological Index</a></li>
<li><a href="./trm_chrono.html">The Real Movement Posts Chronological Index</a></li>
<li><a href="./rq_chrono.html">The Red Quest Posts Chronological Index</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="Programming"><a class="hanchor" href="#Programming">Programming</a></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="./awitt.html">awitt – Another Window Title Tracker</a></li>
<li><a href="./vis.html">Fuzzy Find to Insert Lines in vis</a></li>
</ul>
<h2 id="Miscellaneous"><a class="hanchor" href="#Miscellaneous">Miscellaneous</a></h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="./about.html">About</a></li>
<li><a href="./changelog.html">Changelog</a></li>
<li><a href="./contributions.html">Contributions</a></li>
<li><a href="./uses_this.html">Uses This</a></li>
<li><a href="./favorites.html">Favorites</a></li>
<li><a href="./now.html">Now</a></li>
<li><a href="./todo.html">Todo</a></li>
<li><a href="./fullindex.html">Full Index</a>, if you care for drafts</li>
</ul>
<h3 id="Media_Consumption"><a class="hanchor" href="#Media_Consumption">Media Consumption</a></h3>
<p>I sometimes write reviews of things I have watched/read.</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="./text_reviews.html">Text Reviews</a></li>
</ul>
<p>The following is four lists on the content I consume. The content listed
there is a fairly big subset of what I actually read/listen to/watch,
but not complete. I also don't remember everything from these perfectly.</p>
<ul>
<li><a href="./texts_list.html">Texts List</a></li>
<li><a href="./movies_list.html">Movies List</a></li>
<li><a href="./podcasts_list.html">Podcasts List</a></li>
<li><a href="./series_list.html">Series List</a></li>
</ul>
<p><img alt="Sol Plav" src="./favicon.png" title="kakja kjerbas unjobares"/></p>
<div class="footnotes">
<hr/>
<ol>
<li id="fn1">
<p>Feeds like RSS/Atom/Substack are not a great fit for what I'm trying to do here, since <a href="./about.html#Not_Really_a_Blog">I'm not writing a blog</a> and instead focus on <a href="https://gwern.net/about#long-content">long content</a>. But demand was high. <a href="#fnref1" rev="footnote">↩</a></p>
</li>
</ol>
</div>
</body></html>