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2021-10-22_MVLV_MVIV_Bands_article.R
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2021-10-22_MVLV_MVIV_Bands_article.R
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## Market-Value-to-Long-term-holder-Value (MVLV) and Market-Value-to-Illiquid-Value (MVIV) metrics & bands
## By: Dilution-proof (@dilutionproof)
# Set locale ----
Sys.setlocale(category = "LC_TIME", locale="en_GB.UTF-8")
# Libraries ----
library(tidyverse)
library(here)
# Data import ----
df_price <- read_csv(here::here("price-btc-24h.csv"))
df_mc <- read_csv(here::here("market-cap-btc-24h.csv"))
df_rc <- read_csv(here::here("realized-cap-btc-24h.csv"))
df_cs <- read_csv(here::here("circulating-supply-btc-24h.csv"))
df_ls <- read_csv(here::here("long-term-holder-supply-btc-24h.csv"))
df_is <- read_csv(here::here("illiquid-supply-btc-24h.csv"))
# Data management ----
df_price <- df_price %>% rename(date = timestamp, price = value)
df_mc <- df_mc %>% rename(date = timestamp, mc = value)
df_rc <- df_rc %>% rename(date = timestamp, rc = value)
df_cs <- df_cs %>% rename(date = timestamp, cs = value)
df_ls <- df_ls %>% rename(date = timestamp, ls = value)
df_is <- df_is %>% rename(date = timestamp, is = value)
df_bands <- full_join(df_price, df_mc, by = "date")
df_bands <- full_join(df_bands, df_rc, by = "date")
df_bands <- full_join(df_bands, df_cs, by = "date")
df_bands <- full_join(df_bands, df_ls, by = "date")
df_bands <- full_join(df_bands, df_is, by = "date")
remove(df_price, df_mc, df_rc, df_cs, df_ls, df_is)
df_bands <- df_bands %>%
mutate(
date = as.Date(date),
mv = price * cs,
mv_sd = NA,
lv = price * ls,
lv_365sma = NA,
iv = price * is,
iv_365sma = NA,
bpt0 = NA,
mc_sd = NA,
price_sd = NA
) %>%
arrange(date)
df_bands <- df_bands[-nrow(df_bands),] # last value ls incomplete
for (i in 365:nrow(df_bands)) {
df_bands$lv_365sma[i] <- mean(df_bands$lv[(i-365):i], na.rm = TRUE)
df_bands$iv_365sma[i] <- mean(df_bands$iv[(i-365):i], na.rm = TRUE)
df_bands$bpt0[i] <- mean(df_bands$price[ifelse(i > 1459, (i-1460), 0):i], na.rm = TRUE)
df_bands$mv_sd[i] <- sd(df_bands$mv[0:i], na.rm = TRUE)
df_bands$mc_sd[i] <- sd(df_bands$mc[0:i], na.rm = TRUE)
df_bands$price_sd[i] <- sd(df_bands$price[ifelse(i > 1459, (i-1460), 0):i], na.rm = TRUE)
}
remove(i)
df_bands <- df_bands %>%
mutate(
mvrv = (mc - rc) / mc_sd,
mvrv0 = rc / cs,
mvrv2 = (rc + 2*mc_sd) / cs,
mvrv4 = (rc + 4*mc_sd) / cs,
mvrv6 = (rc + 6*mc_sd) / cs,
mvrv8 = (rc + 8*mc_sd) / cs,
mvrv10 = (rc + 10*mc_sd) / cs,
mvlv = (mv - lv_365sma) / mv_sd,
mvlv0 = lv_365sma / cs,
mvlv2 = (lv_365sma + 2*mv_sd) / cs,
mvlv4 = (lv_365sma + 4*mv_sd) / cs,
mvlv6 = (lv_365sma + 6*mv_sd) / cs,
mvlv8 = (lv_365sma + 8*mv_sd) / cs,
mvlv10 = (lv_365sma + 10*mv_sd) / cs,
mviv = (mv - iv_365sma) / mv_sd,
mviv0 = iv_365sma / cs,
mviv2 = (iv_365sma + 2*mv_sd) / cs,
mviv4 = (iv_365sma + 4*mv_sd) / cs,
mviv6 = (iv_365sma + 6*mv_sd) / cs,
mviv8 = (iv_365sma + 8*mv_sd) / cs,
mviv10 = (iv_365sma + 10*mv_sd) / cs,
bpt = (price - bpt0) / price_sd,
bpt2 = bpt0 + 2*price_sd,
bpt4 = bpt0 + 4*price_sd,
bpt6 = bpt0 + 6*price_sd,
bpt8 = bpt0 + 8*price_sd,
bpt10 = bpt0 + 10*price_sd
) %>%
select(
date, cs, ls, is, rc, price, price_sd, mv, mv_sd, mc, mc_sd, lv, lv_365sma, iv, iv_365sma, starts_with("mvrv"),
starts_with("mvlv"), starts_with("mviv"), bpt, starts_with("bpt")
)
# LTH & illiquid supply ----
chart_ith_illiquid_supply <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = ls/1000000, colour = "3")) +
geom_line(aes(y = is/1000000, colour = "2")) +
geom_line(aes(y = cs/1000000, colour = "1")) +
scale_y_continuous(
breaks = seq(0, 100, 2),
minor_breaks = seq(0, 100, 1)
) +
scale_x_date(
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "The circulating bitcoin supply, Illiquid Supply* & Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply**",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Glassnode, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "BTC (millions)",
caption = "* Illiquid Supply: The total amount of bitcoin that that are labelled 'illiquid' by Glassnode\n** Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply: The total number of bitcoin that have been labelled 'long-term holder supply' by Glassnode") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Supply",
values = c("black", "red", "blue"),
labels = c("Circulating", "Illiquid", "LTH")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Last values:\nCirculating supply: ",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$cs)/1000000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"M\nIlliquid supply: ",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$is[!is.na(df_bands$is)])/1000000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"M\nLTH supply: ",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$ls[!is.na(df_bands$ls)])/1000000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"M",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = 0,
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_0_lth_illiquid_supply.png", sep = "")), chart_ith_illiquid_supply, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MV & IV & LV ----
chart_mv_iv_lv <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = lv_365sma, colour = "3")) +
geom_line(aes(y = iv_365sma, colour = "2")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mv, colour = "1")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(min(df_bands$mv, na.rm = TRUE), max(df_bands$mv, na.rm = TRUE)),
breaks = c(0,1,10,100,1000,10000,100000,1000000, 10000000, 100000000, 1000000000, 10000000000, 100000000000, 1000000000000,
10000000000000),
minor_breaks = c(seq(0, 1, 0.1), seq(0, 10, 1), seq(0, 100, 10), seq(0, 1000, 100), seq(0, 10000, 1000), seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000), seq(0, 10000000, 1000000), seq(0, 100000000, 10000000), seq(0, 1000000000, 100000000),
seq(0, 10000000000, 1000000000), seq(0, 100000000000, 10000000000), seq(0, 1000000000000, 100000000000),
seq(0, 10000000000000, 1000000000000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(df_bands$date[min(which(!is.na(df_bands$mv)))], last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin price and the 1-year moving averages of the Illiquid Value (IV)* & Long-term holder Value (LV)**",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Glassnode, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* Illiquid Value (IV): The total USD value of the total supply of all bitcoin that are labelled 'illiquid' by Glassnode\n** Long-term holder Value (LV): The total USD value of the total supply of all bitcoin that is labelled 'long-term holder' by Glassnode") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Legend",
values = c("black", "red", "blue"),
labels = c("MV", "IV", "LV")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMV: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mv)/1000000000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"B\nIV: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$iv_365sma)/1000000000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"B\nLV: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$lv_365sma)/1000000000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"B",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = min(df_bands$mv, na.rm = TRUE),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_1_mv_iv_lv.png", sep = "")), chart_mv_iv_lv, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MVIV & MVLV ----
chart_mviv_mvlv <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 0, color = "blue") +
geom_hline(yintercept = 2, color = "green", linetype = 2) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 4, color = "yellow", linetype = 2) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 6, color = "orange", linetype = 2) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 8, color = "red", linetype = 2) +
geom_hline(yintercept = 10, color = "brown", linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv, colour = "2"), alpha = 0.75) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv, colour = "1"), alpha = 0.75) +
scale_y_continuous(
breaks = seq(0, 10, 2),
minor_breaks = NULL
) +
scale_x_date(
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y",
limits = c(df_bands$date[min(which(!is.na(df_bands$price)))], last(df_bands$date))
) +
labs(
title = "Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Illiquid-Value (MVIV)* & Market-Value-to-Long-term-holder-Value (MVLV)**",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Glassnode, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "MVIV / MVLV",
caption = "* MVIV: The difference between the value of all bitcoin and the value of the circulating bitcoin supply that is labelled 'illiquid' by Glassnode, divided by the standard deviation of the market value\n** MVLV: The difference between the value of all circulating bitcoin and that of all bitcoin that are labelled 'long-term holder' by Glassnode, divided by the standard deviation of the market value"
) +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Legend",
values = c("red", "blue"),
labels = c("MVIV", "MVLV")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current MVIV: ",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv), 2), nsmall = 2)),
"\nCurrent MVLV: ",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv), 2), nsmall = 2)),
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = max(df_bands$mviv[566:nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 1
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_2_MVIV_MVLV.png", sep = "")), chart_mviv_mvlv, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MVIV Bands ----
chart_mvivb <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv0, colour = "6")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv2, colour = "5"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv4, colour = "4"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv6, colour = "3"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv8, colour = "2"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv10, colour = "1"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = price, colour = "7")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(min(df_bands$price, na.rm = TRUE), max(df_bands$mviv10, na.rm = TRUE)),
breaks = c(0, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000),
minor_breaks = c(
seq(0, 1, 0.1),
seq(0, 10, 1),
seq(0, 100, 10),
seq(0, 1000, 100),
seq(0, 10000, 1000),
seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(df_bands$date[min(which(!is.na(df_bands$price)))], last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Illiquid-Value (MVIV) Bands*",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Coinmetrics, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* MVIV Bands: Extrapolated prices for when market value deviates [Band #] standard deviations from the value of the 1-year moving average of the supply that Glassnode labels 'illiquid'") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Bands",
values = c("brown", "red", "orange", "yellow", "green", "blue", "black"),
breaks = c('1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6'),
labels = c("MVIV10", "MVIV8", "MVIV6", "MVIV4", "MVIV2", "MVIV0")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMVIV10: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv10)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV8: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv8)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV6: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv6)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV4: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv4)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV2: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv2)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV0: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv0)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nPrice: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$price)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = min(df_bands$price, na.rm = TRUE),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_3_mviv_bands.png", sep = "")), chart_mvivb, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MVIV Bands (last 10y) ----
chart_mvivb_last10y <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv0, colour = "6")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv2, colour = "5"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv4, colour = "4"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv6, colour = "3"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv8, colour = "2"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv10, colour = "1"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = price, colour = "7")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(
ifelse(
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
max(df_bands$mviv10, na.rm = TRUE)
),
breaks = c(0, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000),
minor_breaks = c(
seq(0, 1, 0.1),
seq(0, 10, 1),
seq(0, 100, 10),
seq(0, 1000, 100),
seq(0, 10000, 1000),
seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(last(df_bands$date)-10*365.25, last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Illiquid-Value (MVIV) Bands* during the last 10 years",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Coinmetrics, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* MVIV Bands: Extrapolated prices for when market value deviates [Band #] standard deviations from the value of the 1-year moving average of the supply that Glassnode labels 'illiquid'") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Bands",
values = c("brown", "red", "orange", "yellow", "green", "blue", "black"),
breaks = c('1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6'),
labels = c("MVIV10", "MVIV8", "MVIV6", "MVIV4", "MVIV2", "MVIV0")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMVIV10: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv10)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV8: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv8)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV6: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv6)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV4: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv4)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV2: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv2)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV0: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv0)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nPrice: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$price)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = ifelse(
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_4_mviv_bands_last10y.png", sep = "")), chart_mvivb_last10y, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MVIV Bands (last 5y) ----
chart_mvivb_last5y <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv0, colour = "6")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv2, colour = "5"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv4, colour = "4"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv6, colour = "3"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv8, colour = "2"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv10, colour = "1"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = price, colour = "7")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(
ifelse(
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
max(df_bands$mviv10, na.rm = TRUE)
),
breaks = c(0, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000),
minor_breaks = c(
seq(0, 1, 0.1),
seq(0, 10, 1),
seq(0, 100, 10),
seq(0, 1000, 100),
seq(0, 10000, 1000),
seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(last(df_bands$date)-5*365.25, last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Illiquid-Value (MVIV) Bands* during the last 5 years",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Coinmetrics, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* MVIV Bands: Extrapolated prices for when market value deviates [Band #] standard deviations from the value of the 1-year moving average of the supply that Glassnode labels 'illiquid'") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Bands",
values = c("brown", "red", "orange", "yellow", "green", "blue", "black"),
breaks = c('1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6'),
labels = c("MVIV10", "MVIV8", "MVIV6", "MVIV4", "MVIV2", "MVIV0")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMVIV10: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv10)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV8: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv8)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV6: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv6)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV4: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv4)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV2: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv2)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV0: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv0)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nPrice: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$price)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = ifelse(
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_5_mviv_bands_last5y.png", sep = "")), chart_mvivb_last5y, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MVIV Bands (last 2y) ----
chart_mvivb_last2y <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv0, colour = "6")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv2, colour = "5"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv4, colour = "4"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv6, colour = "3"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv8, colour = "2"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv10, colour = "1"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = price, colour = "7")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(
ifelse(
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
max(df_bands$mviv10, na.rm = TRUE)
),
breaks = c(0, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000),
minor_breaks = c(
seq(0, 1, 0.1),
seq(0, 10, 1),
seq(0, 100, 10),
seq(0, 1000, 100),
seq(0, 10000, 1000),
seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(last(df_bands$date)-2*365.25, last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Illiquid-Value (MVIV) Bands* during the last 2 years",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Coinmetrics, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* MVIV Bands: Extrapolated prices for when market value deviates [Band #] standard deviations from the value of the 1-year moving average of the supply that Glassnode labels 'illiquid'") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Bands",
values = c("brown", "red", "orange", "yellow", "green", "blue", "black"),
breaks = c('1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6'),
labels = c("MVIV10", "MVIV8", "MVIV6", "MVIV4", "MVIV2", "MVIV0")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMVIV10: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv10)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV8: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv8)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV6: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv6)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV4: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv4)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV2: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv2)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVIV0: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mviv0)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nPrice: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$price)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = ifelse(
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mviv0[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_6_mviv_bands_last2y.png", sep = "")), chart_mvivb_last2y, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MVLV Bands ----
chart_mvlvb <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv0, colour = "6")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv2, colour = "5"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv4, colour = "4"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv6, colour = "3"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv8, colour = "2"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv10, colour = "1"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = price, colour = "7")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(min(df_bands$price, na.rm = TRUE), max(df_bands$mvlv10, na.rm = TRUE)),
breaks = c(0, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000),
minor_breaks = c(
seq(0, 1, 0.1),
seq(0, 10, 1),
seq(0, 100, 10),
seq(0, 1000, 100),
seq(0, 10000, 1000),
seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(df_bands$date[min(which(!is.na(df_bands$price)))], last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Long-Term Holder-Value (MVLV) Bands*",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Coinmetrics, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* MVLV Bands: Extrapolated prices for when market value deviates [Band #] standard deviations from the value of the 1-year moving average of the supply that are labelled 'long-term holder' by Glassnode") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Bands",
values = c("brown", "red", "orange", "yellow", "green", "blue", "black"),
breaks = c('1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6'),
labels = c("MVLV10", "MVLV8", "MVLV6", "MVLV4", "MVLV2", "MVLV0")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMVLV10: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv10)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV8: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv8)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV6: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv6)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV4: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv4)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV2: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv2)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV0: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv0)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nPrice: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$price)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = min(df_bands$price, na.rm = TRUE),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_7_mvlv_bands.png", sep = "")), chart_mvlvb, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MVLV Bands (last 10y) ----
chart_mvlvb_last10y <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv0, colour = "6")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv2, colour = "5"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv4, colour = "4"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv6, colour = "3"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv8, colour = "2"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv10, colour = "1"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = price, colour = "7")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(
ifelse(
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
max(df_bands$mvlv10, na.rm = TRUE)
),
breaks = c(0, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000),
minor_breaks = c(
seq(0, 1, 0.1),
seq(0, 10, 1),
seq(0, 100, 10),
seq(0, 1000, 100),
seq(0, 10000, 1000),
seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(last(df_bands$date)-10*365.25, last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Long-Term Holder-Value (MVLV) Bands* during the last 10 years",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Coinmetrics, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* MVLV Bands: Extrapolated prices for when market value deviates [Band #] standard deviations from the value of the 1-year moving average of the supply that are labelled 'long-term holder' by Glassnode'") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Bands",
values = c("brown", "red", "orange", "yellow", "green", "blue", "black"),
breaks = c('1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6'),
labels = c("MVLV10", "MVLV8", "MVLV6", "MVLV4", "MVLV2", "MVLV0")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMVLV10: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv10)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV8: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv8)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV6: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv6)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV4: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv4)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV2: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv2)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV0: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv0)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nPrice: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$price)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = ifelse(
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-10*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_8_mvlv_bands_last10y.png", sep = "")), chart_mvlvb_last10y, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MVLV Bands (last 5y) ----
chart_mvlvb_last5y <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv0, colour = "6")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv2, colour = "5"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv4, colour = "4"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv6, colour = "3"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv8, colour = "2"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv10, colour = "1"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = price, colour = "7")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(
ifelse(
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
max(df_bands$mvlv10, na.rm = TRUE)
),
breaks = c(0, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000),
minor_breaks = c(
seq(0, 1, 0.1),
seq(0, 10, 1),
seq(0, 100, 10),
seq(0, 1000, 100),
seq(0, 10000, 1000),
seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(last(df_bands$date)-5*365.25, last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Long-Term Holder-Value (MVLV) Bands* during the last 5 years",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Coinmetrics, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* MVLV Bands: Extrapolated prices for when market value deviates [Band #] standard deviations from the value of the 1-year moving average of the supply that are labelled 'long-term holder' by Glassnode'") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Bands",
values = c("brown", "red", "orange", "yellow", "green", "blue", "black"),
breaks = c('1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6'),
labels = c("MVLV10", "MVLV8", "MVLV6", "MVLV4", "MVLV2", "MVLV0")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMVLV10: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv10)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV8: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv8)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV6: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv6)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV4: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv4)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV2: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv2)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV0: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv0)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nPrice: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$price)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = ifelse(
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-5*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_9_mvlv_bands_last5y.png", sep = "")), chart_mvlvb_last5y, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# MVLV Bands (last 2y) ----
chart_mvlvb_last2y <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv0, colour = "6")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv2, colour = "5"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv4, colour = "4"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv6, colour = "3"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv8, colour = "2"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv10, colour = "1"), linetype = 2) +
geom_line(aes(y = price, colour = "7")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(
ifelse(
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
max(df_bands$mvlv10, na.rm = TRUE)
),
breaks = c(0, 1, 10, 100, 1000, 10000, 100000, 1000000),
minor_breaks = c(
seq(0, 1, 0.1),
seq(0, 10, 1),
seq(0, 100, 10),
seq(0, 1000, 100),
seq(0, 10000, 1000),
seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(last(df_bands$date)-2*365.25, last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin Market-Value-to-Long-Term Holder-Value (MVLV) Bands* during the last 2 years",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Coinmetrics, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* MVLV Bands: Extrapolated prices for when market value deviates [Band #] standard deviations from the value of the 1-year moving average of the supply that are labelled 'long-term holder' by Glassnode'") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Bands",
values = c("brown", "red", "orange", "yellow", "green", "blue", "black"),
breaks = c('1', '2', '3', '4', '5', '6'),
labels = c("MVLV10", "MVLV8", "MVLV6", "MVLV4", "MVLV2", "MVLV0")
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMVLV10: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv10)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV8: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv8)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV6: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv6)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV4: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv4)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV2: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv2)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nMVLV0: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvlv0)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k\nPrice: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$price)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),
"k",
sep = ""
),
x = last(df_bands$date),
y = ifelse(
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE) < min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$mvlv0[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE),
min(df_bands$price[(nrow(df_bands)-2*365.25):nrow(df_bands)], na.rm = TRUE)
),
size = 3,
hjust = 1,
vjust = 0
) +
theme_minimal() +
theme(
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.subtitle = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
plot.caption = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "italic"),
legend.title = element_text(hjust = 0, face = "bold"),
plot.title.position = "panel",
plot.caption.position = "panel"
)
ggsave(here::here(paste(as.character(Sys.Date()), "_10_mvlv_bands_last2y.png", sep = "")), chart_mvlvb_last2y, height = 12.5 / 1.78, width = 12.5, dpi = 320, units = "in")
# Bands baselines ----
chart_bands_baselines <- ggplot(df_bands, aes(x = date)) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvrv0, colour = "2")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mvlv0, colour = "3")) +
geom_line(aes(y = mviv0, colour = "4")) +
geom_line(aes(y = bpt0, colour = "5")) +
geom_line(aes(y = price, colour = "1")) +
scale_y_log10(
labels=scales::dollar_format(),
limits = c(min(df_bands$price, na.rm = TRUE), max(df_bands$price, na.rm = TRUE)),
breaks = c(0,1,10,100,1000,10000,100000,1000000, 10000000, 100000000, 1000000000, 10000000000, 100000000000, 1000000000000,
10000000000000),
minor_breaks = c(seq(0, 1, 0.1), seq(0, 10, 1), seq(0, 100, 10), seq(0, 1000, 100), seq(0, 10000, 1000), seq(0, 100000, 10000),
seq(0, 1000000, 100000), seq(0, 10000000, 1000000), seq(0, 100000000, 10000000), seq(0, 1000000000, 100000000),
seq(0, 10000000000, 1000000000), seq(0, 100000000000, 10000000000), seq(0, 1000000000000, 100000000000),
seq(0, 10000000000000, 1000000000000))
) +
scale_x_date(
limits = c(df_bands$date[min(which(!is.na(df_bands$price)))], last(df_bands$date)),
breaks = "1 year",
minor_breaks = NULL,
date_labels = "%Y"
) +
theme_minimal() +
labs(title = "Bitcoin price and the baselines of the MVRV*, MVLV**, MVIV***, BPT**** Bands",
subtitle = paste("Date: ", as.character(format(Sys.Date(), "%b %d, %Y")), ", data: Glassnode, chart: @dilutionproof", sep = ""),
x = "Time",
y = "United States Dollars (USD)",
caption = "* MVRV: Market-Value-to-Realized-Value; the difference between the value of all bitcoin & that of all coins when they last moved, divided by the standard deviation of the market value\n** MVLV: Market-Value-to-Long-term-holder-Value; the difference between the value of all coins that are labelled 'long-term holder' by Glassnode, divided by the standard deviation of the market value\n*** MVIV: Market-Value-to-Illiquid-Value; the difference between the value of all bitcoin & that of Glassnode's 'illiquid supply', divided by the standard deviation of the market value\n**** BPT: Bitcoin Price Temperature; the difference between the bitcoin price and its 4-year moving average, divided by the rolling 4-year standard deviation of the bitcoin price") +
scale_colour_manual(
name = "Bands",
values = c("black", "blue", "green", "orange", "red"),
labels = c("MVRV0", "MVLV0", "MVIV0", "BPT0"),
breaks = c('2', '3', '4', '5')
) +
annotate(
"label",
label = paste(
"Current values:\nMVRV0: $",
as.character(format(round(last(df_bands$mvrv0)/1000, 1), nsmall = 1)),