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Exceptional Olympic Performance: README

Overview

This project aims to analyze Olympic medal counts using statistical models to adjust for population size. By assuming every person in the world has an equal chance of winning a medal, we can identify countries with the most statistically significant performances relative to their population. The results highlight exceptional countries with a "WTF, that country is doing well given their population" moment.

Methodology

Data Collection

We fetch the latest Olympic medal data from Wikipedia and population data from a local CSV file. The medal table is updated periodically using a caching mechanism to ensure the data is recent without overwhelming the server with frequent requests.

Statistical Models

  1. Poisson Distribution
    • The Poisson distribution is used to model the probability of winning a certain number of medals. The probability that a country wins at least k medals, given its population, is calculated using the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the Poisson distribution.
    • The Poisson percent-point function (PPF) is used to find the equivalent number of medals a country would win if it had the same population as the average country the olympic committee.