[e2e test flake] Timed waiting for all control plane replicas to be updated

[cahillsf]

Which jobs are flaking?

periodic-cluster-api-e2e-mink8s-main
periodic-cluster-api-e2e-main

Which tests are flaking?

When testing KCP adoption Should adopt up-to-date control plane Machines without modification

Since when has it been flaking?

2024-11-05 is the first instance of this flake i can find: https://storage.googleapis.com/k8s-triage/index.html?date=2024-11-06&text=Timed%20waiting%20for%20all%20control%20plane%20replicas%20to%20be%20updated&job=.*periodic-cluster-api-e2e.*

now it appears quite consistently:
https://storage.googleapis.com/k8s-triage/index.html?date=2024-11-20&text=Timed%20waiting%20for%20all%20control%20plane%20replicas%20to%20be%20updated&job=.*periodic-cluster-api-e2e.*

Testgrid link

https://testgrid.k8s.io/sig-cluster-lifecycle-cluster-api#capi-e2e-main

Reason for failure (if possible)

TBD (have not had time to investigate thoroghly)

Anything else we need to know?

example failed job: https://prow.k8s.io/view/gs/kubernetes-ci-logs/logs/periodic-cluster-api-e2e-mink8s-main/1858697443558821888

have filtered commits on main to around the time this flake popped up: https://github.com/kubernetes-sigs/cluster-api/commits/main/?since=2024-11-03&until=2024-11-05

have not have time to further investigate yet

Label(s) to be applied

/kind flake

[cahillsf]

/area e2e-testing

[sivchari]

I confirm this flake.
/assign

[adilGhaffarDev]

did we fix something related to this? I don't see any failure after 23-11
https://storage.googleapis.com/k8s-triage/index.html?text=Timed%20waiting%20for%20all%20control%20plane%20replicas%20to%20be%20updated&job=.*-cluster-api-.*&xjob=.*-provider-.*%7C.*-operator-.*

[chrischdi]

New occurencies now.

Seems not to be gone.