From 9afc208cd367c7e217dc277dbc59a207e50d41a7 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: Matt Kinsey <matt@mkinsey.com>
Date: Wed, 8 Jan 2025 21:43:22 -0500
Subject: [PATCH] JHUAPL-Morris 2025-01-08 Forecast

---
 model-metadata/JHUAPL-Morris.yaml             |   21 +
 .../2025-01-11-JHUAPL-Morris.csv              | 6096 +++++++++++++++++
 2 files changed, 6117 insertions(+)
 create mode 100644 model-metadata/JHUAPL-Morris.yaml
 create mode 100644 model-output/JHUAPL-Morris/2025-01-11-JHUAPL-Morris.csv

diff --git a/model-metadata/JHUAPL-Morris.yaml b/model-metadata/JHUAPL-Morris.yaml
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..5fbecbe2
--- /dev/null
+++ b/model-metadata/JHUAPL-Morris.yaml
@@ -0,0 +1,21 @@
+team_name: "Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory"
+team_abbr: "JHUAPL"
+model_name: "Morris"
+model_abbr: "Morris"
+model_version: "2.0"
+model_contributors: [
+  {
+    "name": "Matthew C Kinsey",
+    "affiliation": "Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory",
+    "email": "matt.kinsey@jhuapl.edu"
+  },
+]
+website_url: "https://www.jhuapl.edu/"
+license: "CC-BY-4.0"
+team_funding: "ACCIDDA"
+designated_model: true
+methods: "N-HiTS model with custom Weighted Interval Score (WIS) loss for probabilistic flu hospitalization forecasts by state."
+data_inputs: "The model primarily uses the Weekly Hospital Respiratory Data Metrics from the National Healthcare Safety Network (NHSN), including total influenza hospitalizations, admissions, and reporting percentages. Derived features include temporal encodings (day of week, week of year) and reporting fractions. No external data sources beyond the NHSN dataset are used."
+methods_long: "This model uses a Neural Hierarchical Interpolation for Time Series (N-HiTS) architecture to forecast influenza hospitalizations by state. It's trained on weekly data from the National Healthcare Safety Network, incorporating time encodings and state-specific features. The model employs a novel Weighted Interval Score (WIS) loss function, enabling probabilistic forecasts that balance accuracy and uncertainty quantification. Hyperparameter optimization is performed using a Bayesian surrogate model."
+ensemble_of_models: false
+ensemble_of_hub_models: false
diff --git a/model-output/JHUAPL-Morris/2025-01-11-JHUAPL-Morris.csv b/model-output/JHUAPL-Morris/2025-01-11-JHUAPL-Morris.csv
new file mode 100644
index 00000000..ca9d00e9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/model-output/JHUAPL-Morris/2025-01-11-JHUAPL-Morris.csv
@@ -0,0 +1,6096 @@
+reference_date,target,horizon,target_end_date,location,output_type,output_type_id,value
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.01,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.025,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.05,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.1,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.15,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.2,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.25,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.3,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.35,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.4,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.45,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.5,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.55,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.6,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.65,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.7,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.75,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.8,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.85,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.9,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.95,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.975,58.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,02,quantile,0.99,58.0
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,0,2025-01-11,02,quantile,0.25,0.0
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,0,2025-01-11,02,quantile,0.55,3.0934581756591797
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,12,quantile,0.01,2285.0
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,13,quantile,0.95,541.2337646484375
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,13,quantile,0.01,0.0
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,31,quantile,0.01,177.0
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,32,quantile,0.01,354.0
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,45,quantile,0.01,0.0
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,-1,2025-01-04,53,quantile,0.01,489.0
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+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,1,2025-01-18,56,quantile,0.99,237.5614776611328
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.01,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.025,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.05,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.1,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.15,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.2,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.25,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.3,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.35,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.4,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.45,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.5,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.55,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.6,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.65,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.7,2.196514129638672
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.75,11.41379165649414
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.8,21.227924346923828
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.85,29.309350967407227
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.9,50.056243896484375
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.95,81.44145965576172
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.975,119.55276489257812
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,2,2025-01-25,56,quantile,0.99,182.68716430664062
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.01,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.025,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.05,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.1,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.15,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.2,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.25,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.3,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.35,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.4,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.45,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.5,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.55,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.6,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.65,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.7,0.0
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.75,7.559505462646484
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.8,18.899639129638672
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.85,27.652339935302734
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.9,46.290794372558594
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.95,76.14664459228516
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.975,113.62757110595703
+2025-01-11,wk inc flu hosp,3,2025-02-01,56,quantile,0.99,168.82635498046875