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<!DOCTYPE html>
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<title>Chapter 16 Central Limit Theorem | Fundamental statistical concepts and techniques in the biological and environmental sciences: With jamovi</title>
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<meta name="twitter:title" content="Chapter 16 Central Limit Theorem | Fundamental statistical concepts and techniques in the biological and environmental sciences: With jamovi" />
<meta name="twitter:description" content="This is an introductory statistics textbook for students in the biological and environmental sciences with examples using jamovi statistical software." />
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<meta name="author" content="A. Bradley Duthie" />
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<ul class="summary">
<li><a href="./">Statistics with jamovi</a></li>
<li class="divider"></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Preface</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#structure"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>How this book is structured</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#datasets"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Datasets used in this book</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#acknowledgements"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>Acknowledgements</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="" data-path="index.html"><a href="index.html#author"><i class="fa fa-check"></i>About the author</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1" data-path="Chapter_1.html"><a href="Chapter_1.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1</b> Background mathematics</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.1" data-path="Chapter_1.html"><a href="Chapter_1.html#numbers-and-operations"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.1</b> Numbers and operations</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.2" data-path="Chapter_1.html"><a href="Chapter_1.html#logarithms"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.2</b> Logarithms</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="1.3" data-path="Chapter_1.html"><a href="Chapter_1.html#order-of-operations"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>1.3</b> Order of operations</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2" data-path="Chapter_2.html"><a href="Chapter_2.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2</b> Data organisation</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.1" data-path="Chapter_2.html"><a href="Chapter_2.html#tidy-data"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.1</b> Tidy data</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.2" data-path="Chapter_2.html"><a href="Chapter_2.html#data-files"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.2</b> Data files</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="2.3" data-path="Chapter_2.html"><a href="Chapter_2.html#managing-data-files"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>2.3</b> Managing data files</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3" data-path="Chapter_3.html"><a href="Chapter_3.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3</b> <em>Practical</em>. Preparing data</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.1" data-path="Chapter_3.html"><a href="Chapter_3.html#transferring-data-to-a-spreadsheet"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.1</b> Transferring data to a spreadsheet</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.2" data-path="Chapter_3.html"><a href="Chapter_3.html#making-spreadsheet-data-tidy"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.2</b> Making spreadsheet data tidy</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.3" data-path="Chapter_3.html"><a href="Chapter_3.html#making-data-tidy-again"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.3</b> Making data tidy again</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.4" data-path="Chapter_3.html"><a href="Chapter_3.html#tidy-data-and-spreadsheet-calculations"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.4</b> Tidy data and spreadsheet calculations</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="3.5" data-path="Chapter_3.html"><a href="Chapter_3.html#summary"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>3.5</b> Summary</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="4" data-path="Chapter_4.html"><a href="Chapter_4.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>4</b> Populations and samples</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="5" data-path="Chapter_5.html"><a href="Chapter_5.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>5</b> Types of variables</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6" data-path="Chapter_6.html"><a href="Chapter_6.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6</b> Accuracy, precision, and units</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.1" data-path="Chapter_6.html"><a href="Chapter_6.html#accuracy"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.1</b> Accuracy</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.2" data-path="Chapter_6.html"><a href="Chapter_6.html#precision"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.2</b> Precision</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="6.3" data-path="Chapter_6.html"><a href="Chapter_6.html#systems-of-units"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>6.3</b> Systems of units</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7" data-path="Chapter_7.html"><a href="Chapter_7.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7</b> Uncertainty propagation</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.1" data-path="Chapter_7.html"><a href="Chapter_7.html#adding-or-subtracting-errors"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.1</b> Adding or subtracting errors</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="7.2" data-path="Chapter_7.html"><a href="Chapter_7.html#multiplying-or-dividing-errors"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>7.2</b> Multiplying or dividing errors</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8" data-path="Chapter_8.html"><a href="Chapter_8.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8</b> <em>Practical</em>. Introduction to jamovi</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.1" data-path="Chapter_8.html"><a href="Chapter_8.html#summary_statistics_02"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.1</b> Summary statistics</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.2" data-path="Chapter_8.html"><a href="Chapter_8.html#transforming_variables_02"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.2</b> Transforming variables</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.3" data-path="Chapter_8.html"><a href="Chapter_8.html#computing_variables_02"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.3</b> Computing variables</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="8.4" data-path="Chapter_8.html"><a href="Chapter_8.html#summary-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>8.4</b> Summary</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9" data-path="Chapter_9.html"><a href="Chapter_9.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9</b> Decimal places, significant figures, and rounding</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.1" data-path="Chapter_9.html"><a href="Chapter_9.html#decimal-places-and-significant-figures"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.1</b> Decimal places and significant figures</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="9.2" data-path="Chapter_9.html"><a href="Chapter_9.html#rounding"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>9.2</b> Rounding</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10" data-path="Chapter_10.html"><a href="Chapter_10.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10</b> Graphs</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.1" data-path="Chapter_10.html"><a href="Chapter_10.html#histograms"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.1</b> Histograms</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.2" data-path="Chapter_10.html"><a href="Chapter_10.html#barplots-and-pie-charts"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.2</b> Barplots and pie charts</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="10.3" data-path="Chapter_10.html"><a href="Chapter_10.html#box-whisker-plots"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>10.3</b> Box-whisker plots</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11" data-path="Chapter_11.html"><a href="Chapter_11.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11</b> Measures of central tendency</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.1" data-path="Chapter_11.html"><a href="Chapter_11.html#the-mean"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.1</b> The mean</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.2" data-path="Chapter_11.html"><a href="Chapter_11.html#the-mode"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.2</b> The mode</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="11.3" data-path="Chapter_11.html"><a href="Chapter_11.html#the-median-and-quantiles"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>11.3</b> The median and quantiles</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12" data-path="Chapter_12.html"><a href="Chapter_12.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12</b> Measures of spread</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.1" data-path="Chapter_12.html"><a href="Chapter_12.html#the-range"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.1</b> The range</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.2" data-path="Chapter_12.html"><a href="Chapter_12.html#the-inter-quartile-range"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.2</b> The inter-quartile range</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.3" data-path="Chapter_12.html"><a href="Chapter_12.html#the-variance"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.3</b> The variance</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.4" data-path="Chapter_12.html"><a href="Chapter_12.html#the-standard-deviation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.4</b> The standard deviation</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.5" data-path="Chapter_12.html"><a href="Chapter_12.html#the-coefficient-of-variation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.5</b> The coefficient of variation</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="12.6" data-path="Chapter_12.html"><a href="Chapter_12.html#the-standard-error"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>12.6</b> The standard error</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="13" data-path="Chapter_13.html"><a href="Chapter_13.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>13</b> Skew and kurtosis</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="13.1" data-path="Chapter_13.html"><a href="Chapter_13.html#skew"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>13.1</b> Skew</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="13.2" data-path="Chapter_13.html"><a href="Chapter_13.html#kurtosis"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>13.2</b> Kurtosis</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="13.3" data-path="Chapter_13.html"><a href="Chapter_13.html#moments"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>13.3</b> Moments</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="14" data-path="Chapter_14.html"><a href="Chapter_14.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>14</b> <em>Practical</em>. Plotting and statistical summaries in jamovi</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="14.1" data-path="Chapter_14.html"><a href="Chapter_14.html#reorganise-the-dataset-into-a-tidy-format"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>14.1</b> Reorganise the dataset into a tidy format</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="14.2" data-path="Chapter_14.html"><a href="Chapter_14.html#histograms-and-box-whisker-plots"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>14.2</b> Histograms and box-whisker plots</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="14.3" data-path="Chapter_14.html"><a href="Chapter_14.html#calculate-summary-statistics"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>14.3</b> Calculate summary statistics</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="14.4" data-path="Chapter_14.html"><a href="Chapter_14.html#reporting-decimals-and-significant-figures"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>14.4</b> Reporting decimals and significant figures</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="14.5" data-path="Chapter_14.html"><a href="Chapter_14.html#comparing-across-sites"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>14.5</b> Comparing across sites</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15</b> Introduction to probability models</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15.1" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html#instructive-example"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15.1</b> Instructive example</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15.2" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html#biological-applications"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15.2</b> Biological applications</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15.3" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html#sampling-with-and-without-replacement"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15.3</b> Sampling with and without replacement</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15.4" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html#probability-distributions"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15.4</b> Probability distributions</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15.4.1" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html#binomial-distribution"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15.4.1</b> Binomial distribution</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15.4.2" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html#poisson-distribution"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15.4.2</b> Poisson distribution</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15.4.3" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html#uniform-distribution"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15.4.3</b> Uniform distribution</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15.4.4" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html#normal-distribution"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15.4.4</b> Normal distribution</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="15.5" data-path="Chapter_15.html"><a href="Chapter_15.html#summary-2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>15.5</b> Summary</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="16" data-path="Chapter_16.html"><a href="Chapter_16.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>16</b> Central Limit Theorem</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="16.1" data-path="Chapter_16.html"><a href="Chapter_16.html#the-distribution-of-means-is-normal"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>16.1</b> The distribution of means is normal</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="16.2" data-path="Chapter_16.html"><a href="Chapter_16.html#probability-and-z-scores"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>16.2</b> Probability and z-scores</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="17" data-path="Chapter_17.html"><a href="Chapter_17.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>17</b> <em>Practical</em>. Probability and simulation</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="17.1" data-path="Chapter_17.html"><a href="Chapter_17.html#probabilities-from-a-dataset"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>17.1</b> Probabilities from a dataset</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="17.2" data-path="Chapter_17.html"><a href="Chapter_17.html#probabilities-from-a-normal-distribution"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>17.2</b> Probabilities from a normal distribution</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="17.3" data-path="Chapter_17.html"><a href="Chapter_17.html#central-limit-theorem"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>17.3</b> Central limit theorem</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="18" data-path="Chapter_18.html"><a href="Chapter_18.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>18</b> Confidence intervals</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="18.1" data-path="Chapter_18.html"><a href="Chapter_18.html#normal-distribution-cis"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>18.1</b> Normal distribution CIs</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="18.2" data-path="Chapter_18.html"><a href="Chapter_18.html#binomial-distribution-cis"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>18.2</b> Binomial distribution CIs</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="19" data-path="Chapter_19.html"><a href="Chapter_19.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>19</b> The t-interval</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="20" data-path="Chapter_20.html"><a href="Chapter_20.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>20</b> <em>Practical</em>. z- and t-intervals</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="20.1" data-path="Chapter_20.html"><a href="Chapter_20.html#confidence-intervals-with-distraction"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>20.1</b> Confidence intervals with distrACTION</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="20.2" data-path="Chapter_20.html"><a href="Chapter_20.html#confidence-intervals-from-z--and-t-scores"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>20.2</b> Confidence intervals from z- and t-scores</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="20.3" data-path="Chapter_20.html"><a href="Chapter_20.html#confidence-intervals-for-different-sample-sizes"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>20.3</b> Confidence intervals for different sample sizes</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="20.4" data-path="Chapter_20.html"><a href="Chapter_20.html#proportion-confidence-intervals"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>20.4</b> Proportion confidence intervals</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="20.5" data-path="Chapter_20.html"><a href="Chapter_20.html#another-proportion-confidence-interval"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>20.5</b> Another proportion confidence interval</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="21" data-path="Chapter_21.html"><a href="Chapter_21.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>21</b> What is hypothesis testing?</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="21.1" data-path="Chapter_21.html"><a href="Chapter_21.html#how-ridiculous-is-our-hypothesis"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>21.1</b> How ridiculous is our hypothesis?</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="21.2" data-path="Chapter_21.html"><a href="Chapter_21.html#statistical-hypothesis-testing"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>21.2</b> Statistical hypothesis testing</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="21.3" data-path="Chapter_21.html"><a href="Chapter_21.html#p-values-false-positives-and-power"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>21.3</b> P-values, false positives, and power</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="22" data-path="Chapter_22.html"><a href="Chapter_22.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>22</b> The t-test</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="22.1" data-path="Chapter_22.html"><a href="Chapter_22.html#one-sample-t-test"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>22.1</b> One sample t-test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="22.2" data-path="Chapter_22.html"><a href="Chapter_22.html#independent-samples-t-test"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>22.2</b> Independent samples t-test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="22.3" data-path="Chapter_22.html"><a href="Chapter_22.html#paired-samples-t-test"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>22.3</b> Paired samples t-test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="22.4" data-path="Chapter_22.html"><a href="Chapter_22.html#assumptions-of-t-tests"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>22.4</b> Assumptions of t-tests</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="22.5" data-path="Chapter_22.html"><a href="Chapter_22.html#non-parametric-alternatives"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>22.5</b> Non-parametric alternatives</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="22.5.1" data-path="Chapter_22.html"><a href="Chapter_22.html#wilcoxon-test"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>22.5.1</b> Wilcoxon test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="22.5.2" data-path="Chapter_22.html"><a href="Chapter_22.html#mann-whitney-u-test"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>22.5.2</b> Mann-Whitney U test</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="22.6" data-path="Chapter_22.html"><a href="Chapter_22.html#summary-3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>22.6</b> Summary</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="23" data-path="Chapter_23.html"><a href="Chapter_23.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>23</b> <em>Practical</em>. Hypothesis testing and t-tests</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="23.1" data-path="Chapter_23.html"><a href="Chapter_23.html#one-sample-t-test-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>23.1</b> One sample t-test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="23.2" data-path="Chapter_23.html"><a href="Chapter_23.html#paired-t-test"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>23.2</b> Paired t-test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="23.3" data-path="Chapter_23.html"><a href="Chapter_23.html#wilcoxon-test-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>23.3</b> Wilcoxon test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="23.4" data-path="Chapter_23.html"><a href="Chapter_23.html#independent-samples-t-test-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>23.4</b> Independent samples t-test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="23.5" data-path="Chapter_23.html"><a href="Chapter_23.html#mann-whitney-u-test-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>23.5</b> Mann-Whitney U Test</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="24" data-path="Chapter_24.html"><a href="Chapter_24.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>24</b> Analysis of variance</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="24.1" data-path="Chapter_24.html"><a href="Chapter_24.html#f-distribution"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>24.1</b> F-distribution</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="24.2" data-path="Chapter_24.html"><a href="Chapter_24.html#one-way-anova"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>24.2</b> One-way ANOVA</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="24.2.1" data-path="Chapter_24.html"><a href="Chapter_24.html#anova-mean-variance-among-groups"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>24.2.1</b> ANOVA mean variance among groups</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="24.2.2" data-path="Chapter_24.html"><a href="Chapter_24.html#anova-mean-variance-within-groups"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>24.2.2</b> ANOVA mean variance within groups</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="24.2.3" data-path="Chapter_24.html"><a href="Chapter_24.html#anova-f-statistic-calculation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>24.2.3</b> ANOVA F-statistic calculation</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="24.3" data-path="Chapter_24.html"><a href="Chapter_24.html#assumptions-of-anova"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>24.3</b> Assumptions of ANOVA</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="25" data-path="Chapter_25.html"><a href="Chapter_25.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>25</b> Multiple comparisons</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="26" data-path="Chapter_26.html"><a href="Chapter_26.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>26</b> Kruskal-Wallis H test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="27" data-path="Chapter_27.html"><a href="Chapter_27.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>27</b> Two-way ANOVA</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="28" data-path="Chapter_28.html"><a href="Chapter_28.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>28</b> <em>Practical</em>. ANOVA and associated tests</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="28.1" data-path="Chapter_28.html"><a href="Chapter_28.html#one-way-anova-site"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>28.1</b> One-way ANOVA (site)</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="28.2" data-path="Chapter_28.html"><a href="Chapter_28.html#one-way-anova-profile"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>28.2</b> One-way ANOVA (profile)</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="28.3" data-path="Chapter_28.html"><a href="Chapter_28.html#multiple-comparisons"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>28.3</b> Multiple comparisons</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="28.4" data-path="Chapter_28.html"><a href="Chapter_28.html#kruskal-wallis-h-test"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>28.4</b> Kruskal-Wallis H test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="28.5" data-path="Chapter_28.html"><a href="Chapter_28.html#two-way-anova"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>28.5</b> Two-way ANOVA</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="29" data-path="Chapter_29.html"><a href="Chapter_29.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>29</b> Frequency and count data</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="29.1" data-path="Chapter_29.html"><a href="Chapter_29.html#chi-square-distribution"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>29.1</b> Chi-square distribution</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="29.2" data-path="Chapter_29.html"><a href="Chapter_29.html#chi-square-goodness-of-fit"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>29.2</b> Chi-square goodness of fit</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="29.3" data-path="Chapter_29.html"><a href="Chapter_29.html#chi-square-test-of-association"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>29.3</b> Chi-square test of association</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="30" data-path="Chapter_30.html"><a href="Chapter_30.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>30</b> Correlation</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="30.1" data-path="Chapter_30.html"><a href="Chapter_30.html#scatterplots"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>30.1</b> Scatterplots</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="30.2" data-path="Chapter_30.html"><a href="Chapter_30.html#correlation-coefficient"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>30.2</b> Correlation coefficient</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="30.2.1" data-path="Chapter_30.html"><a href="Chapter_30.html#pearson-product-moment-correlation-coefficient"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>30.2.1</b> Pearson product moment correlation coefficient</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="30.2.2" data-path="Chapter_30.html"><a href="Chapter_30.html#spearmans-rank-correlation-coefficient"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>30.2.2</b> Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="30.3" data-path="Chapter_30.html"><a href="Chapter_30.html#correlation-hypothesis-testing"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>30.3</b> Correlation hypothesis testing</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="31" data-path="Chapter_31.html"><a href="Chapter_31.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>31</b> <em>Practical</em>. Analysis of counts and correlations</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="31.1" data-path="Chapter_31.html"><a href="Chapter_31.html#survival-goodness-of-fit"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>31.1</b> Survival goodness of fit</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="31.2" data-path="Chapter_31.html"><a href="Chapter_31.html#colony-goodness-of-fit"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>31.2</b> Colony goodness of fit</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="31.3" data-path="Chapter_31.html"><a href="Chapter_31.html#chi-square-test-of-association-1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>31.3</b> Chi-Square test of association</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="31.4" data-path="Chapter_31.html"><a href="Chapter_31.html#pearson-product-moment-correlation-test"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>31.4</b> Pearson product moment correlation test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="31.5" data-path="Chapter_31.html"><a href="Chapter_31.html#spearmans-rank-correlation-test"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>31.5</b> Spearman’s rank correlation test</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="31.6" data-path="Chapter_31.html"><a href="Chapter_31.html#untidy-goodness-of-fit"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>31.6</b> Untidy goodness of fit</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32</b> Simple linear regression</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.1" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#visual-interpretation-of-regression"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.1</b> Visual interpretation of regression</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.2" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#intercepts-slopes-and-residuals"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.2</b> Intercepts, slopes, and residuals</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.3" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#regression-coefficients"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.3</b> Regression coefficients</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.4" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#regression-line-calculation"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.4</b> Regression line calculation</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.5" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#coefficient-of-determination"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.5</b> Coefficient of determination</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.6" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#regression-assumptions"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.6</b> Regression assumptions</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.7" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#regression-hypothesis-testing"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.7</b> Regression hypothesis testing</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.7.1" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#overall-model-significance"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.7.1</b> Overall model significance</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.7.2" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#significance-of-the-intercept"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.7.2</b> Significance of the intercept</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.7.3" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#significance-of-the-slope"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.7.3</b> Significance of the slope</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.7.4" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#simple-regression-output"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.7.4</b> Simple regression output</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.8" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#prediction-with-linear-models"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.8</b> Prediction with linear models</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="32.9" data-path="Chapter_32.html"><a href="Chapter_32.html#conclusion"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>32.9</b> Conclusion</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="33" data-path="Chapter_33.html"><a href="Chapter_33.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>33</b> Multiple regression</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="33.1" data-path="Chapter_33.html"><a href="Chapter_33.html#adjusted-coefficient-of-determination"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>33.1</b> Adjusted coefficient of determination</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="34" data-path="Chapter_34.html"><a href="Chapter_34.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>34</b> <em>Practical</em>. Using regression</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="34.1" data-path="Chapter_34.html"><a href="Chapter_34.html#predicting-pyrogenic-carbon-from-soil-depth"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>34.1</b> Predicting pyrogenic carbon from soil depth</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="34.2" data-path="Chapter_34.html"><a href="Chapter_34.html#predicting-pyrogenic-carbon-from-fire-frequency"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>34.2</b> Predicting pyrogenic carbon from fire frequency</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="34.3" data-path="Chapter_34.html"><a href="Chapter_34.html#multiple-regression-depth-and-fire-frequency"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>34.3</b> Multiple regression depth and fire frequency</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="34.4" data-path="Chapter_34.html"><a href="Chapter_34.html#large-multiple-regression"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>34.4</b> Large multiple regression</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="34.5" data-path="Chapter_34.html"><a href="Chapter_34.html#predicting-temperature-from-fire-frequency"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>34.5</b> Predicting temperature from fire frequency</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="35" data-path="Chapter_35.html"><a href="Chapter_35.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>35</b> Randomisation</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="35.1" data-path="Chapter_35.html"><a href="Chapter_35.html#summary-of-parametric-hypothesis-testing"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>35.1</b> Summary of parametric hypothesis testing</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="35.2" data-path="Chapter_35.html"><a href="Chapter_35.html#randomisation-approach"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>35.2</b> Randomisation approach</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="35.3" data-path="Chapter_35.html"><a href="Chapter_35.html#randomisation-for-hypothesis-testing"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>35.3</b> Randomisation for hypothesis testing</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="35.4" data-path="Chapter_35.html"><a href="Chapter_35.html#randomisation-assumptions"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>35.4</b> Randomisation assumptions</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="35.5" data-path="Chapter_35.html"><a href="Chapter_35.html#bootstrapping"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>35.5</b> Bootstrapping</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="35.6" data-path="Chapter_35.html"><a href="Chapter_35.html#randomisation-conclusions"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>35.6</b> Randomisation conclusions</a></li>
</ul></li>
<li class="appendix"><span><b>Appendix</b></span></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A</b> Answers to chapter exercises</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#chapter-3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.1</b> Chapter 3</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.1.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-3.1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.1.1</b> Exercise 3.1:</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.1.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-3.2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.1.2</b> Exercise 3.2</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.1.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-3.3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.1.3</b> Exercise 3.3</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.1.4" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-3.4"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.1.4</b> Exercise 3.4</a></li>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#chapter-8"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.2</b> Chapter 8</a>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.2.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-8.1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.2.1</b> Exercise 8.1</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.2.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-8.2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.2.2</b> Exercise 8.2</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.2.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-8.3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.2.3</b> Exercise 8.3</a></li>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#chapter-14"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.3</b> Chapter 14</a>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.3.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-14.1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.3.1</b> Exercise 14.1</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.3.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-14.2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.3.2</b> Exercise 14.2</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.3.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-14.3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.3.3</b> Exercise 14.3</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.3.4" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-14.4"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.3.4</b> Exercise 14.4</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.3.5" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-14.5"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.3.5</b> Exercise 14.5</a></li>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.4" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#chapter-17"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.4</b> Chapter 17</a>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.4.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-17.1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.4.1</b> Exercise 17.1</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.4.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-17.2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.4.2</b> Exercise 17.2</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.4.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-17.3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.4.3</b> Exercise 17.3</a></li>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.5" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#chapter-20"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.5</b> Chapter 20</a>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.5.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-20.1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.5.1</b> Exercise 20.1</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.5.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-20.2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.5.2</b> Exercise 20.2</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.5.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-20.3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.5.3</b> Exercise 20.3</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.5.4" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-20.4"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.5.4</b> Exercise 20.4</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.5.5" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-20.5"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.5.5</b> Exercise 20.5</a></li>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.6" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#chapter-23"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.6</b> Chapter 23</a>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.6.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-23.1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.6.1</b> Exercise 23.1</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.6.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-23.2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.6.2</b> Exercise 23.2</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.6.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-23.3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.6.3</b> Exercise 23.3</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.6.4" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-23.4"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.6.4</b> Exercise 23.4</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.6.5" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-23.5"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.6.5</b> Exercise 23.5</a></li>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.7" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#chapter-28"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.7</b> Chapter 28</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.7.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-28.1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.7.1</b> Exercise 28.1</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.7.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-28.2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.7.2</b> Exercise 28.2</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.7.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-28.3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.7.3</b> Exercise 28.3</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.7.4" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-28.4"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.7.4</b> Exercise 28.4</a></li>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.8" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#chapter-31"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.8</b> Chapter 31</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.8.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-31.1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.8.1</b> Exercise 31.1</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.8.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-31.2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.8.2</b> Exercise 31.2</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.8.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-31.3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.8.3</b> Exercise 31.3</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.8.4" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-31.4"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.8.4</b> Exercise 31.4</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.8.5" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-31.5"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.8.5</b> Exercise 31.5</a></li>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="A.9" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#chapter-34"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.9</b> Chapter 34</a>
<ul>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.9.1" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-34.1"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.9.1</b> Exercise 34.1</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.9.2" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-34.2"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.9.2</b> Exercise 34.2</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.9.3" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-34.3"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.9.3</b> Exercise 34.3</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.9.4" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-34.4"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.9.4</b> Exercise 34.4</a></li>
<li class="chapter" data-level="A.9.5" data-path="appendexA.html"><a href="appendexA.html#exercise-33.5"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>A.9.5</b> Exercise 33.5</a></li>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="B" data-path="uncertainty_derivation.html"><a href="uncertainty_derivation.html"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>B</b> Uncertainty derivation</a>
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<li class="chapter" data-level="B.1" data-path="uncertainty_derivation.html"><a href="uncertainty_derivation.html#propagation-of-error-for-addition-and-subtraction"><i class="fa fa-check"></i><b>B.1</b> Propagation of error for addition and subtraction</a></li>
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<div id="Chapter_16" class="section level1 hasAnchor" number="16">
<h1><span class="header-section-number">Chapter 16</span> Central Limit Theorem<a href="Chapter_16.html#Chapter_16" class="anchor-section" aria-label="Anchor link to header"></a></h1>
<p>The previous chapter finished by introducing the normal distribution.
This chapter focuses on the normal distribution in more detail and explains why it is so important in statistics.</p>
<div id="the-distribution-of-means-is-normal" class="section level2 hasAnchor" number="16.1">
<h2><span class="header-section-number">16.1</span> The distribution of means is normal<a href="Chapter_16.html#the-distribution-of-means-is-normal" class="anchor-section" aria-label="Anchor link to header"></a></h2>
<p>The central limit theorem (CLT) is one of the most important theorems in statistics.
It states that if we sample values from <strong>any</strong> distribution and calculate the mean, as we increase our sample size <span class="math inline">\(N\)</span>, the distribution <em>of the mean</em> gets closer and closer to a normal distribution <span class="citation">(<a href="#ref-Miller2004" role="doc-biblioref">Miller & Miller, 2004</a>; <a href="#ref-Sokal1995" role="doc-biblioref">Sokal & Rohlf, 1995</a>; <a href="#ref-Spiegelhalter2019" role="doc-biblioref">Spiegelhalter, 2019</a>)</span>.<a href="#fn21" class="footnote-ref" id="fnref21"><sup>21</sup></a>
This statement is busy and potentially confusing at first, partly because it refers to two separate distributions: the sampling distribution and the distribution of the sample mean.
We can take this step by step, starting with the sampling distribution.</p>
<p>The sampling distribution could be any of the four distributions introduced in <a href="Chapter_15.html#Chapter_15">Chapter 15</a> (binomial, Poisson, uniform, or normal).
Suppose that we sample the binomial distribution from Figure 15.6, the one showing the number of people out of 6 who would test positive for COVID-19 if the probability of testing positive was 0.025.
Assume that we sample a value from this distribution (i.e., a number from 0 to 6) 100 times (i.e., <span class="math inline">\(N = 100\)</span>).
If it helps, we can imagine going to 100 different shops, all of which are occupied by 6 people.
From these 100 samples, we can calculate the sample mean <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}\)</span>.
This would be the mean number of people in a shop who would test positive for COVID-19.
If we were just collecting data to try to estimate the mean number of people with COVID-19 in shops of 6, this is where our calculations might stop.
But here is where the second distribution becomes relevant.</p>
<p>Suppose that we could somehow go back out to collect <em>another</em> 100 samples from 100 completely different shops.
We could then get the mean of this new sample of <span class="math inline">\(N = 100\)</span> shops.
To differentiate, we can call the first sample mean <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}_{1}\)</span> and this new sample mean <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}_{2}\)</span>.
Will <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}_{1}\)</span> and <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}_{2}\)</span> be the exact same value?
Probably not!
Since our samples are independent and random from the binomial distribution (Figure 15.6), it is almost certain that the two sample means will be at least a bit different.
We can therefore ask about the <em>distribution</em> of sample means.
That is, what if we kept going back out to get more samples of 100, calculating additional sample means <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}_{3}\)</span>, <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}_{4}\)</span>, <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}_{5}\)</span>, and so forth?
What would this distribution look like?
It turns out, it would be a normal distribution!</p>
<div class="figure"><span style="display:block;" id="fig:unnamed-chunk-59"></span>
<img src="bookdown-demo_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-59-1.png" alt="A two panel figure, the first shows a barplot with 7 bars, which correspond to the probability that a given number of people have covid in a shop of 6 when the probability of infection is 0.025. The second panel shows a normal distribution with data comprised of means sampled from the first panel." width="672" />
<p class="caption">
Figure 16.1: Simulated demonstration of the central limit theorem. (A) Recreation of Figure 15.6 showing the probability distribution for the number of people who have COVID-19 in a shop of 6 when the probability of testing positive is 0.025. (B) The distribution of 1000 means sampled from panel (A), where the sample size is 100.
</p>
</div>
<p>To demonstrate the CLT in action, Figure 16.1 shows the two distributions side by side.
The first (Figure 16.1A) shows the original distribution from Figure 15.6, from which samples are collected and sample means are calculated.
The second (Figure 16.1B) shows the distribution of 1000 sample means (i.e., <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}_{1}, \bar{x}_{2}, ..., \bar{x}_{999}, \bar{x}_{1000}\)</span>).
Each mean <span class="math inline">\(\bar{x}_{i}\)</span> is calculated from a sample of <span class="math inline">\(N = 100\)</span> from the distribution in Figure 16.1A.
Sampling is simulated using a random number generator on a computer (<a href="Chapter_17.html#Chapter_17">Chapter 17</a> shows an example of how to do this in jamovi).</p>
<p>The distribution of sample means shown in Figure 16.1B is not perfectly normal.
We can try again with an even bigger sample size of <span class="math inline">\(N = 1000\)</span>, this time with a Poisson distribution where <span class="math inline">\(\lambda = 1\)</span> in Figure 15.7.
Figure 16.2 shows this result, with the original Poisson distribution shown in Figure 16.2A, and the corresponding distribution built from 1000 sample means shown in Figure 16.2B.</p>
<div class="figure"><span style="display:block;" id="fig:unnamed-chunk-60"></span>
<img src="bookdown-demo_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-60-1.png" alt="A two panel figure, the first shows a barplot is shown with 11 bars corresponding to the probability of sampling 0-10 from a Poisson distribution with a rate parameter of 1. The second panel shows a normal distribution with data comprised of means sampled from the first panel." width="672" />
<p class="caption">
Figure 16.2: Simulated demonstration of the central limit theorem. (A) Recreation of Figure 15.7 showing the probability distribution for the number of events occurring in a Poisson distribution with a rate parameter of 1. (B) The distribution of 1000 means sampled from panel (A), where the sample size is 1000.
</p>
</div>
<p>We can try the same approach with the continuous uniform distribution shown in Figure 15.8.
This time, we will use an even larger sample size of <span class="math inline">\(N = 10000\)</span> to get our 1000 sample means.
The simulated result is shown in Figure 16.3.</p>
<div class="figure"><span style="display:block;" id="fig:unnamed-chunk-61"></span>
<img src="bookdown-demo_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-61-1.png" alt="A two panel figure, the first shows a uniform probability distribution with a minimum of 1 and a maximum of 2.5. The second panel shows a normal distribution with data comprised of means sampled from the first panel." width="672" />
<p class="caption">
Figure 16.3: Simulated demonstration of the central limit theorem. (A) Recreation of Figure 15.8 showing a continuous uniform distribution with a minimum of 1 and a maximum of 2.5. (B) The distribution of 1000 means sampled from panel (A), where the sample size is 10000.
</p>
</div>
<p>In all cases, regardless of the original sampling distribution (binomial, Poisson, or uniform), the distribution of sample <em>means</em> has the shape of a normal distribution.
This normal distribution of sample means has important implications for statistical hypothesis testing.
The CLT allows us to make inferences about the means of non-normally distributed distributions <span class="citation">(<a href="#ref-Sokal1995" role="doc-biblioref">Sokal & Rohlf, 1995</a>)</span>, to create confidence intervals around sample means, and to apply statistical hypothesis tests that would otherwise not be possible.
We will look at these statistical tools in future chapters.</p>
</div>
<div id="probability-and-z-scores" class="section level2 hasAnchor" number="16.2">
<h2><span class="header-section-number">16.2</span> Probability and z-scores<a href="Chapter_16.html#probability-and-z-scores" class="anchor-section" aria-label="Anchor link to header"></a></h2>
<p>We can calculate the probability of sampling some range of values from the normal distribution if we know the distribution’s mean (<span class="math inline">\(\mu\)</span>) and standard deviation (<span class="math inline">\(\sigma\)</span>).
For example, because the normal distribution is symmetric around the mean, the probability of sampling a value greater than the mean will be 0.5 (i.e., <span class="math inline">\(P(x > \mu) = 0.5\)</span>), and so will the probability of sampling a value less than the mean (i.e., <span class="math inline">\(P(x < \mu) = 0.5\)</span>).
Similarly, about 68.2% of the normal distribution’s probability density lies within 1 standard deviation of the mean (shaded region of Figure 16.4), which means that the probability of randomly sampling a value <span class="math inline">\(x\)</span> that is greater than <span class="math inline">\(\mu - \sigma\)</span> but less than <span class="math inline">\(\mu + \sigma\)</span> is <span class="math inline">\(P(\mu - \sigma < x < \mu + \sigma) = 0.682\)</span>.</p>
<div class="figure"><span style="display:block;" id="fig:unnamed-chunk-62"></span>
<img src="bookdown-demo_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-62-1.png" alt="A plot of a bell curve, with a range of the curve shaded in grey between negative sigma and positive sigma, symmetrical around the peak of the curve" width="672" />
<p class="caption">
Figure 16.4: Normal distribution in which the shaded region shows the area within one standard deviation of the mean (dotted line), that is, the shaded region starts on the left at the mean minus one standard deviation, then ends at the right at the mean plus one standard deviation. This shaded area encompasses 68.2% of the total area under the curve.
</p>
</div>
<p>Remember that total probability always needs to equal 1.
This remains true whether it is the binomial distribution that we saw with the coin flipping example in <a href="Chapter_15.html#Chapter_15">Chapter 15</a>, or any other distribution.
Consequently, the area under the curve of the normal distribution (i.e., under the curved line of Figure 16.4) must equal 1.
When we say that the probability of sampling a value within 1 standard deviation of the mean is 0.682, this also means that the <em>area</em> of this region under the curve equals 0.682 (i.e., the shaded area in Figure 16.4).
And, again, because the whole area under the curve sums to 1, that must mean that the unshaded area of Figure 16.4 (where <span class="math inline">\(x < \mu -\sigma\)</span> or <span class="math inline">\(x > \mu + \sigma\)</span>) has an area equal to <span class="math inline">\(1 - 0.682 = 0.318\)</span>.
That is, the probability of randomly sampling a value <span class="math inline">\(x\)</span> in this region is <span class="math inline">\(P(x < \mu - \sigma \: \cup \: x > \mu + \sigma) = 0.318\)</span>, or 31.8% (note that the <span class="math inline">\(\cup\)</span>, is just a fancy way of saying ‘or’, in this case; technically, the <em>union</em> of two sets).</p>
<p>We can calculate other percentages using standard deviations too <span class="citation">(<a href="#ref-Sokal1995" role="doc-biblioref">Sokal & Rohlf, 1995</a>)</span>.
For example, about 95.4% of the probability density in a normal distribution lies between 2 standard deviations of the mean, i.e., <span class="math inline">\(P(\mu - 2\sigma < x < \mu + 2\sigma) = 0.954\)</span>.
And about 99.6% of the probability density in a normal distribution lies between 3 standard deviations of the mean, i.e., <span class="math inline">\(P(\mu - 3\sigma < x < \mu + 3\sigma) = 0.996\)</span>.
We could go on mapping percentages to standard deviations like this; for example, about 93.3% of the probability density in a normal distribution is less than <span class="math inline">\(\mu + 1.5\sigma\)</span> (i.e., less than 1.5 standard deviations greater than the mean; see Figure 16.5).</p>
<div class="figure"><span style="display:block;" id="fig:unnamed-chunk-63"></span>
<img src="bookdown-demo_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-63-1.png" alt="A plot of a bell curve, with a range of the curve shaded in grey below an indicated value of 1.5 times sigma" width="672" />
<p class="caption">
Figure 16.5: Normal distribution in which the shaded region shows the area under 1.5 standard deviations of the mean (dotted line). This shaded area encompasses about 93.3% of the total area under the curve.
</p>
</div>
<p>Notice that there are no numbers on the x-axes of Figure 16.4 or 16.5.
This is deliberate; the relationship between standard deviations and probability density applies regardless of the scale.
We could have a mean of <span class="math inline">\(\mu = 100\)</span> and standard deviation of <span class="math inline">\(\sigma = 4\)</span>, or <span class="math inline">\(\mu = -12\)</span> and <span class="math inline">\(\sigma = 0.34\)</span>.
It does not matter.
Nevertheless, it would be very useful if we could work with some standard values of <span class="math inline">\(x\)</span> when working out probabilities.
This is where the standard normal distribution, first introduced in <a href="Chapter_15.html#Chapter_15">Chapter 15</a>, becomes relevant.
Recall that the standard normal distribution has a mean of <span class="math inline">\(\mu = 0\)</span> and a standard deviation (and variance) of <span class="math inline">\(\sigma = 1\)</span>.
With these standard values of <span class="math inline">\(\mu\)</span> and <span class="math inline">\(\sigma\)</span>, we can start actually putting numbers on the x-axis and relating them to probabilities.
We call these numbers <strong>standard normal deviates</strong>, or <strong>z-scores</strong> (Figure 16.6).</p>
<div class="figure"><span style="display:block;" id="fig:unnamed-chunk-64"></span>
<img src="bookdown-demo_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-64-1.png" alt="A plot of a bell curve, shaded in grey and centered at the x-axis on a value of zero is shown. The x axis is labelled 'z-score'." width="672" />
<p class="caption">
Figure 16.6: Standard normal probability distribution with z-scores shown on the x-axis.
</p>
</div>
<p>What z-scores allow us to do is map probabilities to deviations from the mean of a standard normal distribution (hence ‘standard normal deviates’).
We can say, e.g., that about 95% of the probability density lies between <span class="math inline">\(z = -1.96\)</span> and <span class="math inline">\(z = 1.96\)</span>, or that about 99% lies between <span class="math inline">\(z = -2.58\)</span> and <span class="math inline">\(z = 2.58\)</span> (this will become relevant later).
An interactive application<a href="#fn22" class="footnote-ref" id="fnref22"><sup>22</sup></a> can help show how probability density changes with changing z-score.</p>
<p>Of course, most variables that we measure in the biological and environmental sciences will not fit the standard normal distribution.
Almost all variables will have a different mean and standard deviation, even if they are normally distributed.
Nevertheless, we can translate any normally distributed variable into a standard normal distribution by subtracting its mean and dividing by its standard deviation.
We can see what this looks like visually in Figure 16.7.</p>
<div class="figure"><span style="display:block;" id="fig:unnamed-chunk-65"></span>
<img src="bookdown-demo_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-65-1.png" alt="A two panel figure, the first shows a curve of the standard normal distribution, to the right of which there is a histogram of data centred at a mean of 5 with a relatively high standard deviation. In the second figure, the histogram data fit nicely within the normal distribution" width="672" />
<p class="caption">
Figure 16.7: Visual representation of what happens when we subtract the sample mean from a dataset, then divide by its standard deviation. (A) Histogram (grey bars) show 10000 normally distributed values with a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2; the curved dotted line shows the standard normal distribution with a mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1. (B) Histogram after subtracting 5, then dividing by 2, from all values shown in panel (A).
</p>
</div>
<p>In Figure 16.7A, we see the standard normal distribution curve represented by the dotted line at <span class="math inline">\(\mu = 0\)</span> and with a standard deviation of <span class="math inline">\(\sigma = 1\)</span>.
To the right of this normal distribution we have 10000 values randomly sampled from a normal distribution with a mean of 5 and a standard deviation of 2 (note that the histogram peaks around 5 and is wider than the standard normal distribution because the standard deviation is higher).
After subtracting 5 from all of the values in the histogram of Figure 16.7A, then dividing by 2, the data fit nicely within the standard normal curve, as shown in Figure 16.7B.
By doing this transformation on the original dataset, z-scores can now be used with the data.
Mathematically, here is how the calculation is made,</p>
<p><span class="math display">\[z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}.\]</span></p>
<p>For example, if we had a value of <span class="math inline">\(x = 9.1\)</span> in our simulated dataset, in which <span class="math inline">\(\mu = 5\)</span> and <span class="math inline">\(\sigma = 2\)</span>, then we would calculate <span class="math inline">\(z = (9.1 - 5) / 2 = 2.05\)</span>.
Since we almost never know what the true population mean (<span class="math inline">\(\mu\)</span>) and standard deviation (<span class="math inline">\(\sigma\)</span>) are, we usually need to use the estimates made from our sample,</p>
<p><span class="math display">\[z = \frac{x - \bar{x}}{s}.\]</span></p>
<p>We could then use jamovi <span class="citation">(<a href="#ref-Jamovi2022" role="doc-biblioref">The jamovi project, 2024</a>)</span>, an interactive application, or an old-fashioned z-table<a href="#fn23" class="footnote-ref" id="fnref23"><sup>23</sup></a> to find that only about 2% of values are expected to be higher than <span class="math inline">\(x = 9.1\)</span> in our original dataset.
These z-scores will become especially useful for calculating confidence intervals in <a href="Chapter_18.html#Chapter_18">Chapter 18</a>.
They can also be useful for comparing values from variables or statistics measured on different scales <span class="citation">(<a href="#ref-Adams2016" role="doc-biblioref">Adams & Collyer, 2016</a>; <a href="#ref-Cheadle2003" role="doc-biblioref">Cheadle et al., 2003</a>; <a href="#ref-Sokal1995" role="doc-biblioref">Sokal & Rohlf, 1995</a>)</span>.</p>
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<h3>References<a href="references.html#references" class="anchor-section" aria-label="Anchor link to header"></a></h3>
<div id="refs" class="references csl-bib-body hanging-indent" line-spacing="2">
<div id="ref-Adams2016" class="csl-entry">
Adams, D. C., & Collyer, M. L. (2016). <span class="nocase">On the comparison of the strength of morphological integration across morphometric datasets</span>. <em>Evolution</em>, <em>70</em>(11), 2623–2631. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.13045">https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.13045</a>
</div>
<div id="ref-Cheadle2003" class="csl-entry">
Cheadle, C., Vawter, M. P., Freed, W. J., & Becker, K. G. (2003). <span class="nocase">Analysis of microarray data using Z score transformation</span>. <em>Journal of Molecular Diagnostics</em>, <em>5</em>(2), 73–81. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1016/S1525-1578(10)60455-2">https://doi.org/10.1016/S1525-1578(10)60455-2</a>
</div>
<div id="ref-Miller2004" class="csl-entry">
Miller, I., & Miller, M. (2004). <em><span class="nocase">John E. Freund’s mathematical statistics</span></em> (7th ed., p. 614). Pearson Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, USA.
</div>
<div id="ref-Sokal1995" class="csl-entry">
Sokal, R. R., & Rohlf, F. J. (1995). <em><span>Biometry</span></em> (3rd ed., p. 887). W. H. Freeman & Company, New York, USA.
</div>
<div id="ref-Spiegelhalter2019" class="csl-entry">
Spiegelhalter, D. (2019). <em><span class="nocase">The Art of Statistics Learning from Data</span></em> (p. 426). Penguin, Milton Keynes, UK.
</div>
<div id="ref-Jamovi2022" class="csl-entry">
The jamovi project. (2024). <em>Jamovi (version 2.5)</em>. <a href="https://www.jamovi.org">https://www.jamovi.org</a>
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</div>
<div class="footnotes">
<hr />
<ol start="21">
<li id="fn21"><p>For those interested, a mathematical proof of the CLT can be found in <span class="citation">Miller & Miller (<a href="#ref-Miller2004" role="doc-biblioref">2004</a>)</span>. Here we will demonstrate the CLT by simulation. As an aside, the CLT also applies to the sum of sample values, which will also have a distribution that approaches normality as <span class="math inline">\(N \to \infty\)</span>.<a href="Chapter_16.html#fnref21" class="footnote-back">↩︎</a></p></li>
<li id="fn22"><p><a href="https://bradduthie.github.io/stats/app/zandp/" class="uri">https://bradduthie.github.io/stats/app/zandp/</a><a href="Chapter_16.html#fnref22" class="footnote-back">↩︎</a></p></li>
<li id="fn23"><p>Before the widespread availability of computers, which can easily be used to calculate probability densities on a normal distribution, the way to map z-scores to probabilities was using a z-table (<a href="https://www.z-table.com/" class="uri">https://www.z-table.com/</a>). The table would have rows and columns mapping to different z-values, which could be used to find the appropriate probability densities. Such tables would be used for many different distributions, not just the normal distribution. The textbook by <span class="citation">Sokal & Rohlf (<a href="#ref-Sokal1995" role="doc-biblioref">1995</a>)</span> comes with a nearly 200-page supplemental book that is just statistical tables. These tables are more or less obsolete nowadays, but some people still use them.<a href="Chapter_16.html#fnref23" class="footnote-back">↩︎</a></p></li>
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