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<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<rss version="2.0"
xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
xmlns:georss="http://www.georss.org/georss"
xmlns:gml="http://www.opengis.net/gml"
xmlns:nhc="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov">
<channel>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 03:29:20 GMT</pubDate>
<title>NHC Atlantic</title>
<description>Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico</description>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/</link>
<copyright>none</copyright>
<managingEditor>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</managingEditor>
<language>en-us</language>
<webMaster>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</webMaster>
<image>
<url>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/xml_logo_nhc.gif</url>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/</link>
<title>NHC Atlantic</title>
<description>NOAA logo</description>
<width>95</width>
<height>45</height>
</image>
<item>
<title>Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook</title>
<description>
<![CDATA[
<br/>
000<br/>
ABNT20 KNHC 232346<br/>
TWOAT <br/>
<br/>
Tropical Weather Outlook<br/>
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br/>
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023<br/>
<br/>
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:<br/>
<br/>
Active Systems:<br/>
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently <br/>
downgraded Tropical Depression Ophelia, located inland over <br/>
southeastern Virginia, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm <br/>
Philippe, located over the Central Tropical Atlantic. <br/>
<br/>
Eastern Tropical Atlantic:<br/>
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the <br/>
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers <br/>
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be <br/>
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the <br/>
middle to latter portions of next week while it moves westward <br/>
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. <br/>
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.<br/>
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.<br/>
<br/>
&&<br/>
Public Advisories on Philippe are issued under WMO header WTNT32 <br/>
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT2.<br/>
Forecast/Advisories on Philippe are issued under WMO header WTNT22 <br/>
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT2.<br/>
<br/>
$$<br/>
Forecaster Bucci<br/>
]]>
</description>
<pubDate>Sat, 23 Sep 2023 23:46:35 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&202309232346</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia (AT1/AL162023)</title>
<guid isPermaLink="false">summary-al162023-202309240240</guid>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:40:39 GMT</pubDate>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/240240.shtml</link>
<description>
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...
As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 23
the center of Ophelia was located near 37.1, -77.6
with movement N at 8 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
</description>
<nhc:Cyclone>
<nhc:center>37.1, -77.6</nhc:center>
<nhc:type>POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE</nhc:type>
<nhc:name>Ophelia</nhc:name>
<nhc:wallet>AT1</nhc:wallet>
<nhc:atcf>AL162023</nhc:atcf>
<nhc:datetime>11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 23</nhc:datetime>
<nhc:movement>N at 8 mph</nhc:movement>
<nhc:pressure>1003 mb</nhc:pressure>
<nhc:wind>35 mph</nhc:wind>
<nhc:headline> ...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC... ...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...</nhc:headline>
</nhc:Cyclone>
</item>
<item>
<title>Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Public Advisory Number 11</title>
<description>Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 <![CDATA[<pre>
000
WTNT31 KNHC 240240
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
...OPHELIA BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL LOW BUT CONTINUES TO POSE A
RISK OF COASTAL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.1N 77.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CHARLOTTESVILLE VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
Coastal flood warnings, as well as flood watches and flash flood
warnings, remain in effect for portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Ophelia was located near latitude 37.1 North, longitude 77.6 West.
Ophelia is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). The
center of Ophelia is expected to turn toward the north-northeast
and northeast, moving across eastern Virginia and the Delmarva
Peninsula through Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so.
The post-tropical low is expected to become absorbed by a frontal
boundary Sunday night or early Monday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Ophelia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml
STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated within portions of
Chesapeake Bay and its tidal rivers but should gradually recede
overnight and into Sunday. For information specific to your area,
please see products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.
RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce the following additional
rainfall through Sunday night:
Portions of the Mid-Atlantic from Virginia through New Jersey...1
to 3 inches with isolated higher totals up to 5 inches.
Across southeastern New York through southern New England...1 to 3
inches.
This rainfall may produce localized flash, urban, and small stream
flooding impacts, particularly across the Mid-Atlantic region from
Virginia to New Jersey. Isolated river flooding is possible in areas
of heavier rainfall.
SURF: Swells generated by Ophelia will continue to affect much of
the east coast of the United States through the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Ophelia. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 500 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
$$
Forecaster Berg
</pre>]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:40:39 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/240240.shtml</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/240240.shtml</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Forecast Advisory Number 11</title>
<description>Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 <![CDATA[<pre>
000
WTNT21 KNHC 240240
TCMAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 77.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 77.6W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.1N 77.6W
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON OPHELIA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON OPHELIA CAN BE FOUND IN
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCMAT1, WMO HEADER WTNT21
KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV.
$$
FORECASTER BERG
</pre>]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:40:39 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/240240.shtml</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/240240.shtml</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Forecast Discussion Number 11</title>
<description>Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023 <![CDATA[<pre>
233
WTNT41 KNHC 240241
TCDAT1
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162023
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Ophelia appears to have lost its tropical characteristics. Surface
observations show a well-defined wind shift associated with a
frontal boundary extending across eastern Virginia, and the heaviest
precipitation is now well north of the center, oriented along and
to the north of the front. In addition, phase space diagrams based
on global model fields indicate that the system has entered the
asymmetric cold-core regime. Therefore, Ophelia is being declared a
post-tropical cyclone. Surface observations indicate that maximum
winds have decreased to 30 kt, mainly over the ocean well east of
the center.
With the last bit of convection having been sheared off to the
north, the center appears to have slowed down since the last
advisory, and the current estimate is northward at 360/7 kt. The
circulation is expected to turn northeastward on Sunday, but also
become more diffuse while it moves across eastern Virginia and the
Delmarva Peninsula. The NHC forecast now shows the low becoming
absorbed by the nearby frontal boundary by 36 hours. Maximum winds
are likely to remain around 30 kt until dissipation, mainly in
a band to the north of the front off the coast of Long Island.
This is the last tropical cyclone discussion issued by the National
Hurricane Center on Ophelia. Future information on Ophelia can be
found in discussions issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 500 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCDAT1, WMO header
WTNT41 KWNH, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov.
Key Messages:
1. Coastal flooding will continue along portions of Chesapeake Bay
and its tidal rivers through Sunday. Refer to statements from your
local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional
information.
2. Heavy rainfall from Ophelia may produce localized flash and
urban flooding impacts across portions of the Mid-Atlantic states
from Virginia to New Jersey through Sunday.
3. Swells generated by Ophelia will affect much of the U.S. east
coast through the weekend, likely causing life-threatening surf and
rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 37.1N 77.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 24/1200Z 38.2N 77.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 25/0000Z 39.1N 75.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
</pre>]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:41:08 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/240241.shtml</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/240241.shtml</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11</title>
<description>Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 <![CDATA[<pre>
000
FONT11 KNHC 240241
PWSAT1
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 37.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WASHINGTON DC 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
CAPE HENLOPEN 34 2 20(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 2 12(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
WALLOPS CDA 34 4 8(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
</pre>]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:41:08 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/240241.shtml</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/240241.shtml</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Graphics</title>
<description>
<![CDATA[
<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025343.shtml?cone">
<img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/AL162023_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_sm2.png"
alt="Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" /></a><br/>
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:53:43 GMT
<br /><br /><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025343.shtml?tswind120">
<img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT16/AL162023_wind_probs_34_F120_sm2.png"
alt="Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" /> </a><br/>
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 03:22:54 GMT
]]>
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:53:43 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025343.shtml?cone</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/025343.shtml?cone</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Local Statement for Raleigh, NC</title>
<description>Issued at 541 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023</description>
<pubDate>Sat, 23 Sep 2023 21:41:35 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KRAH.shtml</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/WTUS82-KRAH.shtml</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Summary for Tropical Storm Philippe (AT2/AL172023)</title>
<guid isPermaLink="false">summary-al172023-202309240247</guid>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:47:16 GMT</pubDate>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/240247.shtml</link>
<description>
...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD...
As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 23
the center of Philippe was located near 15.4, -40.9
with movement W at 14 mph.
The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb
with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
</description>
<nhc:Cyclone>
<nhc:center>15.4, -40.9</nhc:center>
<nhc:type>Tropical Storm</nhc:type>
<nhc:name>Philippe</nhc:name>
<nhc:wallet>AT2</nhc:wallet>
<nhc:atcf>AL172023</nhc:atcf>
<nhc:datetime>11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 23</nhc:datetime>
<nhc:movement>W at 14 mph</nhc:movement>
<nhc:pressure>1005 mb</nhc:pressure>
<nhc:wind>40 mph</nhc:wind>
<nhc:headline> ...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD...</nhc:headline>
</nhc:Cyclone>
</item>
<item>
<title>Tropical Storm Philippe Public Advisory Number 3</title>
<description>Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023 <![CDATA[<pre>
490
WTNT32 KNHC 240247
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Philippe Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023
...PHILIPPE MOVING WESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 40.9W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Philippe was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 40.9 West. Philippe is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A continued westward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected into early
next week.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.
$$
Forecaster Bucci
</pre>]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:47:16 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/240247.shtml</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/240247.shtml</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Advisory Number 3</title>
<description>Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 <![CDATA[<pre>
497
WTNT22 KNHC 240246
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.9W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 40.3W
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 42.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 47.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.7N 49.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.4N 50.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 18.3N 52.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.2N 53.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.5N 54.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 40.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
</pre>]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:46:42 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/240246.shtml</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/240246.shtml</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Tropical Storm Philippe Forecast Discussion Number 3</title>
<description>Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023 <![CDATA[<pre>
918
WTNT42 KNHC 240247
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Philippe Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172023
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2023
Philippe is still a disorganized tropical storm. Geostationary
satellite imagery shows that deep convection is displaced to the
northeast of the low-level center. Recent satellite-derived wind
data revealed that the surface circulation is still elongated and
winds in the southwest quadrant are quite weak. The initial
intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, based on the ASCAT
observations.
The tropical storm is moving westward at an estimate 12 kt. This
general motion should continue for the next two days, as Philippe
moves along the south side of a mid-level ridge. By 60 h, the storm
should gradually turn to the west-northwest and northwest as it
reaches a weakness in the ridge. The latest track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory through day 3, and has shifted to
the west and slightly slower at days 4 and 5.
Model guidance suggests Philippe should gradually organize and thus
slowly strengthen in the next few days. This is possibly due to
some mid-level vertical wind shear and upstream dry air. Beyond day
3, Philippe is expected to approach a mid- to upper-level trough,
that should increase deep-layer vertical wind shear, but could also
increase upper-level difluence. The intensity guidance generally
favors some slight intensification during this period. The latest
NHC forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies slightly
above the consensus aid, IVCN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/0300Z 15.4N 40.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.5N 42.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 15.9N 44.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 16.3N 47.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 16.7N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 17.4N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 18.3N 52.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 21.2N 53.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 23.5N 54.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
</pre>]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:47:49 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/240247.shtml</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/240247.shtml</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Tropical Storm Philippe Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3</title>
<description>Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023 <![CDATA[<pre>
491
FONT12 KNHC 240247
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172023
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2023
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
</pre>]]></description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:47:16 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/240247.shtml</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT2+shtml/240247.shtml</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
<item>
<title>Tropical Storm Philippe Graphics</title>
<description>
<![CDATA[
<a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024918.shtml?cone">
<img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/AL172023_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind_sm2.png"
alt="Tropical Storm Philippe 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image"
width="500" height="400" /></a><br/>
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:49:18 GMT
<br /><br /><a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024918.shtml?tswind120">
<img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT17/AL172023_wind_probs_34_F120_sm2.png"
alt="Tropical Storm Philippe 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities"
width="500" height="400" /> </a><br/>
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2023 03:29:09 GMT
]]>
</description>
<pubDate>Sun, 24 Sep 2023 02:49:18 GMT</pubDate>
<link>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024918.shtml?cone</link>
<guid>https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/024918.shtml?cone</guid>
<author>[email protected] (NHC Webmaster)</author>
</item>
</channel>
</rss>