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ref.bib
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%% Imputation
\@article{achen1975mass,
title={Mass political attitudes and the survey response},
author={Achen, Christopher H},
journal={American Political Science Review},
volume={69},
number={04},
pages={1218--1231},
year={1975},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@article{green1994stable,
title={How stable is party identification?},
author={Green, Donald Philip and Palmquist, Bradley},
journal={Political behavior},
volume={16},
number={4},
pages={437--466},
year={1994},
publisher={Springer}
}
@book{haidt2012righteous,
title={The righteous mind: Why good people are divided by politics and religion},
author={Haidt, Jonathan},
year={2012},
publisher={Vintage}
}
@article{simon1957models,
title={Models of man; social and rational.},
author={Simon, Herbert A},
year={1957},
publisher={Wiley}
}
@article{specht1991general,
title={A general regression neural network},
author={Specht, Donald F},
journal={Neural Networks, IEEE Transactions on},
volume={2},
number={6},
pages={568--576},
year={1991},
publisher={IEEE}
}
@article{liaw2002classification,
title={Classification and regression by randomForest},
author={Liaw, Andy and Wiener, Matthew},
journal={R news},
volume={2},
number={3},
pages={18--22},
year={2002}
}
@article{hearst1998support,
title={Support vector machines},
author={Hearst, Marti A. and Dumais, Susan T and Osman, Edgar and Platt, John and Scholkopf, Bernhard},
journal={Intelligent Systems and their Applications, IEEE},
volume={13},
number={4},
pages={18--28},
year={1998},
publisher={IEEE}
}
@article{enders2001relative,
title={The relative performance of full information maximum likelihood estimation for missing data in structural equation models},
author={Enders, Craig K and Bandalos, Deborah L},
journal={Structural Equation Modeling},
volume={8},
number={3},
pages={430--457},
year={2001},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
}
@article{dvzeroski2004combining,
title={Is combining classifiers with stacking better than selecting the best one?},
author={D{\v{z}}eroski, Saso and {\v{Z}}enko, Bernard},
journal={Machine learning},
volume={54},
number={3},
pages={255--273},
year={2004},
publisher={Springer}
}
@inproceedings{freund1996experiments,
title={Experiments with a new boosting algorithm},
author={Freund, Yoav and Schapire, Robert E and others},
booktitle={ICML},
volume={96},
pages={148--156},
year={1996}
}
@article{freund1999short,
title={A short introduction to boosting},
author={Freund, Yoav and Schapire, Robert and Abe, N},
journal={Journal-Japanese Society For Artificial Intelligence},
volume={14},
number={771-780},
pages={1612},
year={1999},
publisher={JAPANESE SOC ARTIFICIAL INTELL}
}
@book{sniderman1993reasoning,
title={Reasoning and choice: Explorations in political psychology},
author={Sniderman, Paul M and Tetlock, Phillip E and Brody, Richard A},
year={1993},
publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@article{abrajano2005natural,
title={A natural experiment of race-based and issue voting: The 2001 city of Los Angeles elections},
author={Abrajano, Marisa A and Alvarez, R Michael},
journal={Political Research Quarterly},
volume={58},
number={2},
pages={203--218},
year={2005},
publisher={Sage Publications}
}
@article{krosnick1991response,
title={Response strategies for coping with the cognitive demands of attitude measures in surveys},
author={Krosnick, Jon A},
journal={Applied cognitive psychology},
volume={5},
number={3},
pages={213--236},
year={1991},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
}
@article{alford2005political,
title={Are political orientations genetically transmitted?},
author={Alford, John R and Funk, Carolyn L and Hibbing, John R},
journal={American political science review},
volume={99},
number={02},
pages={153--167},
year={2005},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@article{druckman2001implications,
title={The implications of framing effects for citizen competence},
author={Druckman, James N},
journal={Political Behavior},
volume={23},
number={3},
pages={225--256},
year={2001},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{haidt2001emotional,
title={The emotional dog and its rational tail: a social intuitionist approach to moral judgment.},
author={Haidt, Jonathan},
journal={Psychological review},
volume={108},
number={4},
pages={814},
year={2001},
publisher={American Psychological Association}
}
@book{erikson2002macro,
title={The macro polity},
author={Erikson, Robert S and MacKuen, Michael B and Stimson, James A},
year={2002},
publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@misc{green2002partisan,
title={Partisan hearts and minds},
author={Green, Donald and Palmquist, Bradley and Schickler, Eric},
year={2002},
publisher={New Haven, CT: Yale University Press}
}
@book{bartels2009unequal,
title={Unequal democracy: The political economy of the new gilded age},
author={Bartels, Larry M},
year={2009},
publisher={Princeton University Press}
}
@article{conover1981origins,
title={The origins and meaning of liberal/conservative self-identifications},
author={Conover, Pamela Johnston and Feldman, Stanley},
journal={American Journal of Political Science},
pages={617--645},
year={1981},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{nelson1996issue,
title={Issue frames and group-centrism in American public opinion},
author={Nelson, Thomas E and Kinder, Donald R},
journal={The Journal of Politics},
volume={58},
number={04},
pages={1055--1078},
year={1996},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@book{erikson2000american,
title={American Public Opinion: Its Orgin, Contents, and Impact},
author={Erikson, Robert S and Tedin, Kent L},
year={2000},
publisher={Longman Publishing Group}
}
@book{vavreck2009message,
title={The message matters: The economy and presidential campaigns},
author={Vavreck, Lynn},
year={2009},
publisher={Princeton University Press}
}
@inproceedings{achen2004musical,
title={Musical chairs: Pocketbook voting and the limits of democratic accountability},
author={Achen, Christopher H and Bartels, Larry M},
booktitle={Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago},
year={2004}
}
@book{rosenstone2002mobilization,
title={Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America (Longman Classics Edition)},
author={Rosenstone, Steven J and Hansen, John Mark},
year={2002},
publisher={Longman Publishing Group}
}
@book{page2010rational,
title={The rational public: Fifty years of trends in Americans' policy preferences},
author={Page, Benjamin I and Shapiro, Robert Y},
year={2010},
publisher={University of Chicago Press}
}
@book{verba1995voice,
title={Voice and equality: Civic voluntarism in American politics},
author={Verba, Sidney and Schlozman, Kay Lehman and Brady, Henry E and Brady, Henry E},
volume={4},
year={1995},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@book{kinder1996divided,
title={Divided by color: Racial politics and democratic ideals},
author={Kinder, Donald R},
year={1996},
publisher={University of Chicago Press}
}
@book{mendelberg2001race,
title={The race card: Campaign strategy, implicit messages, and the norm of equality},
author={Mendelberg, Tali},
year={2001},
publisher={Princeton University Press}
}
@book{gelman2009red,
title={Red state, blue state, rich state, poor state: why Americans vote the way they do},
author={Gelman, Andrew},
year={2009},
publisher={Princeton University Press}
}
## Revisions above
@article{Gay2012,
title={Moving to Opportunity The Political Effects of a Housing Mobility Experiment},
author={Gay, Claudine},
journal={Urban Affairs Review},
volume={48},
number={2},
pages={147--179},
year={2012},
publisher={SAGE Publications}
}
@book{campbell1980american,
title={The american voter},
author={Campbell, Angus},
year={1980},
publisher={University of Chicago Press}
}
@book{miller1996new,
title={The new American voter},
author={Miller, Warren Edward and Shanks, J Merrill},
year={1996},
publisher={Harvard University Press Cambridge, MA}
}
@article{sears1979whites,
title={Whites' opposition to “busing”: self-interest or symbolic politics?},
author={Sears, David O and Hensler, Carl P and Speer, Leslie K},
journal={American Political Science Review},
volume={73},
number={02},
pages={369--384},
year={1979},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@book{converse1962nature,
title={The nature of belief systems in mass publics},
author={Converse, Philip E},
year={1962},
publisher={Survey Research Center, University of Michigan}
}
@article{blalock1967toward,
title={Toward a theory of minority-group relations},
author={Blalock, Hubert M},
year={1967},
publisher={Wiley}
}
@book{wolfinger1980votes,
title={Who votes?},
author={Wolfinger, Raymond E},
volume={22},
year={1980},
publisher={Yale University Press}
}
@article{huber2012sources,
title={Sources of bias in retrospective decision making: Experimental evidence on voters’ limitations in controlling incumbents},
author={Huber, Gregory A and Hill, Seth J and Lenz, Gabriel S},
journal={American Political Science Review},
volume={106},
number={04},
pages={720--741},
year={2012},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@article{enos2014pivotality,
title={Pivotality and Turnout: Evidence from a Field Experiment in the Aftermath of a Tied Election},
author={Enos, Ryan D and Fowler, Anthony},
journal={Political Science Research and Methods},
volume={2},
number={02},
pages={309--319},
year={2014},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@techreport{Washington2006,
title={Female Socialization: How Daughters Affect Their Legislator Fathers' Voting on Women's Issues},
author={Washington, Ebonya},
year={2006},
institution={National Bureau of Economic Research}
}
@article{Robinson2009,
title={Observing the counterfactual? The search for political experiments in nature},
author={Robinson, Gregory and McNulty, John E and Krasno, Jonathan S},
journal={Political Analysis},
volume={17},
number={4},
pages={341--357},
year={2009},
publisher={SPM-PMSAPSA}
}
@article{Elis2009,
title={Apportionment cycles as natural experiments},
author={Elis, Roy and Malhotra, Neil and Meredith, Marc},
journal={Political Analysis},
volume={17},
number={4},
pages={358--376},
year={2009},
publisher={SPM-PMSAPSA}
}
@book{iyengar2010news,
title={News that matters: Television and American opinion},
author={Iyengar, Shanto and Kinder, Donald R},
year={2010},
publisher={University of Chicago Press}
}
@article{feldman1988structure,
title={Structure and consistency in public opinion: The role of core beliefs and values},
author={Feldman, Stanley},
journal={American Journal of Political Science},
pages={416--440},
year={1988},
publisher={JSTOR}
}
@article{putnam1995bowling,
title={Bowling alone: America's declining social capital},
author={Putnam, Robert D},
journal={Journal of democracy},
volume={6},
number={1},
pages={65--78},
year={1995},
publisher={The Johns Hopkins University Press}
}
@article{page1987moves,
title={What moves public opinion?},
author={Page, Benjamin I and Shapiro, Robert Y and Dempsey, Glenn R},
journal={American Political Science Review},
volume={81},
number={01},
pages={23--43},
year={1987},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@article{Enos2010,
title={What tearing down public housing projects teaches us about the effect of racial threat on political participation},
author={Enos, Ryan D},
journal={Unpublished. Retrieved from http://ryandenos. com/papers/chicago\_threat. pdf},
year={2010}
}
@article{Addonizio2007,
title={Putting the Party Back into Politics: An Experiment Testing Whether Election Day Festivals Increase Voter Turnout},
author={Addonizio, Elizabeth M and Green, Donald P and Glaser, James M},
journal={PS-WASHINGTON-},
volume={40},
number={4},
pages={721},
year={2007},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@article{Gay2012,
title={Moving to Opportunity The Political Effects of a Housing Mobility Experiment},
author={Gay, Claudine},
journal={Urban Affairs Review},
volume={48},
number={2},
pages={147--179},
year={2012},
publisher={SAGE Publications}
}
@article{Alvarez2010,
title={Mobilizing Pasadena Democrats: Measuring The Effects of Partisan Campaign Contacts},
author={Alvarez, R Michael and Hopkins, Asa and Sinclair, Betsy},
journal={The Journal of Politics},
volume={72},
number={01},
pages={31--44},
year={2010},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@article{Gerber2006,
title={Does the media matter? A field experiment measuring the effect of newspapers on voting behavior and political opinions},
author={Gerber, Alan and Karlan, Dean S and Bergan, Daniel},
journal={A Field Experiment Measuring the Effect of Newspapers on Voting Behavior and Political Opinions (February 15, 2006). Yale Economic Applications and Policy Discussion Paper},
number={12},
year={2006}
}
@techreport{Gerber2009,
title={Party affiliation, partisanship, and political beliefs: A field experiment},
author={Gerber, Alan S and Huber, Gregory A and Washington, Ebonya},
year={2009},
institution={National Bureau of Economic Research}
}
@article{berinsky2012evaluating,
title={Evaluating online labor markets for experimental research: Amazon. com's Mechanical Turk},
author={Berinsky, Adam J and Huber, Gregory A and Lenz, Gabriel S},
journal={Political Analysis},
volume={20},
number={3},
pages={351--368},
year={2012},
publisher={SPM-PMSAPSA}
}
@book{Mutz2011,
title={Population-based survey experiments},
author={Mutz, Diana C},
year={2011},
publisher={Princeton University Press}
}
@article{Barabas2010,
title={Are Survey Experiments Externally Valid?},
author={Barabas, Jason and Jerit, Jennifer},
journal={American Political Science Review},
volume={104},
number={2},
pages={226--242},
year={2010},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@article{Blair2012,
title={Statistical analysis of list experiments},
author={Blair, Graeme and Imai, Kosuke},
journal={Political Analysis},
volume={20},
number={1},
pages={47--77},
year={2012},
publisher={SPM-PMSAPSA}
}
@article{Glynn2010,
title={What can we learn with statistical truth serum? Design and analysis of the list experiment},
author={Glynn, Adam N},
journal={Unpublished Manuscript. http://isites. harvard. edu/fs/docs/icb. topic646669. files/StatTruthSerum. pdf [July 23 2010]},
year={2010}
}
@article{Chong2007,
title={Framing theory},
author={Chong, Dennis and Druckman, James N},
journal={Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci.},
volume={10},
pages={103--126},
year={2007},
publisher={Annual Reviews}
}
@article{Druckman2008,
title={Emotion and the framing of risky choice},
author={Druckman, James N and McDermott, Rose},
journal={Political Behavior},
volume={30},
number={3},
pages={297--321},
year={2008},
publisher={Springer}
}
@article{Berinsky2008,
title={Survey non-response},
author={Berinsky, Adam J},
journal={The SAGE handbook of public opinion research},
pages={309--321},
year={2008}
}
@article{King2003,
title={Enhancing the validity and cross-cultural comparability of measurement in survey research},
author={King, Gary and Murray, Christopher JL and Salomon, Joshua A and Tandon, Ajay},
journal={American Political Science Review},
volume={97},
number={4},
pages={567--584},
year={2003},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
@article{Tourangeau2007,
title={Sensitive questions in surveys.},
author={Tourangeau, Roger and Yan, Ting},
journal={Psychological bulletin},
volume={133},
number={5},
pages={859},
year={2007},
publisher={American Psychological Association}
}
@article{Prior2008,
title={Money, time, and political knowledge: Distinguishing quick recall and political learning skills},
author={Prior, Markus and Lupia, Arthur},
journal={American Journal of Political Science},
volume={52},
number={1},
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year={2011},
publisher={Springer}
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@article{Fudenberg2010,
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author={Fudenberg, Drew and Rand, David and Dreber, Anna},
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year={2010}
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title={Civic engagements: Resolute partisanship or reflective deliberation},
author={MacKuen, Michael and Wolak, Jennifer and Keele, Luke and Marcus, George E},
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volume={54},
number={2},
pages={440--458},
year={2010},
publisher={Wiley Online Library}
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@book{Rosenthal2009,
title={Artifacts in Behavioral Research: Robert Rosenthal and Ralph L. Rosnow's Classic Books},
author={Rosenthal, Robert and Rosnow, Ralph L and others},
year={2009},
publisher={Oxford University Press, USA}
}
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title={FisherÕs randomization mode of statistical inference, then and now},
author={Bowers, Jake and Panagopoulos, Costas},
journal={Unpublished manuscript},
year={2011}
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title={Covariate balance in simple, stratified and clustered comparative studies},
author={Hansen, Ben B and Bowers, Jake},
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volume={23},
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pages={219--236},
year={2008},
publisher={Institute of Mathematical Statistics}
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title={Yes, but whatÕs the mechanism?(donÕt expect an easy answer).},
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number={4},
pages={550},
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publisher={American Psychological Association}
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@book{Morton2010,
title={Experimental political science and the study of causality: From nature to the lab},
author={Morton, Rebecca B and Williams, Kenneth C},
year={2010},
publisher={Cambridge University Press}
}
@article{Imai2011,
title = {Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies},
volume = {105},
issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
shorttitle = {Unpacking the Black Box of Causality},
url = {http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0003055411000414},
doi = {10.1017/S0003055411000414},
number = {04},
journal = {American Political Science Review},
author = {Imai, Kosuke and Keele, Luke and Tingley, Dustin and Yamamoto, Teppei},
month = nov,
year = {2011},
pages = {765--789}
}
@article{Imai2009,
title = {The Essential Role of Pair Matching in {Cluster-Randomized} Experiments, with Application to the Mexican Universal Health Insurance Evaluation},
volume = {24},
issn = {0883-4237},
url = {http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1255009008},
doi = {10.1214/08-STS274},
number = {1},
journal = {Statistical Science},
author = {Imai, Kosuke and King, Gary and Nall, Clayton},
month = feb,
year = {2009},
pages = {29--53}
}
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title={The strength of issues: Using multiple measures to gauge preference stability, ideological constraint, and issue voting},
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volume={102},
number={02},
pages={215--232},
year={2008},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
}
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year={2006},
publisher={Taylor \& Francis}
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publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
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title={Political attitudes vary with physiological traits},
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year={2012},
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title={Personality and political attitudes: Relationships across issue domains and political contexts},
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title={Personality and civic engagement: An integrative framework for the study of trait effects on political behavior},
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title={The unmet potential of interdisciplinary research: Political psychological approaches to voting and public opinion},
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pages={627},
year={2006},
publisher={Cambridge Univ Press}
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pages={579--616},
year={1992},
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title={Roll calls, party labels, and elections},
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year={2003},
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@article{Kelly2012,
title = {Federalism and American Inequality},
volume = {74},
issn = {0022-3816, 1468-2508},
url = {http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0022381611001678},
doi = {10.1017/S0022381611001678},
number = {02},
urldate = {2012-12-03},
journal = {The Journal of Politics},
author = {Kelly, Nathan J. and Witko, Christopher},
month = mar,
year = {2012},
pages = {414--426}
}
@article{Primo2010,
title = {Party Strength, the Personal Vote, and Government Spending},
volume = {54},
issn = {00925853, 15405907},
url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00435.x},
doi = {10.1111/j.1540-5907.2010.00435.x},
number = {2},
urldate = {2012-12-03},
journal = {American Journal of Political Science},
author = {Primo, David M. and Snyder, Jr., James M.},
month = apr,
year = {2010},
pages = {354--370}
}
@article{Gelman1993,
jstor_articletype = {research-article},
title = {Why Are American Presidential Election Campaign Polls so Variable When Votes Are so Predictable?},
author = {Gelman, Andrew and King, Gary},
journal = {British Journal of Political Science},
jstor_issuetitle = {},
volume = {23},
number = {4},
jstor_formatteddate = {Oct., 1993},
pages = {pp. 409-451},
url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/194212},
ISSN = {00071234},
abstract = {As most political scientists know, the outcome of the American presidential election can be predicted within a few percentage points (in the popular vote), based on information available months before the election. Thus, the general campaign for president seems irrelevant to the outcome (except in very close elections), despite all the media coverage of campaign strategy. However, it is also well known that the pre-election opinion polls can vary wildly over the campaign, and this variation is generally attributed to events in the campaign. How can campaign events affect people's opinions on whom they plan to vote for, and yet not affect the outcome of the election? For that matter, why do voters consistently increase their support for a candidate during his nominating convention, even though the conventions are almost entirely predictable events whose effects can be rationally forecast? In this exploratory study, we consider several intuitively appealing, but ultimately wrong, resolutions to this puzzle and discuss our current understanding of what causes opinion polls to fluctuate while reaching a predictable outcome. Our evidence is based on graphical presentation and analysis of over 67,000 individual-level responses from forty-nine commercial polls during the 1988 campaign and many other aggregate poll results from the 1952-92 campaigns. We show that responses to pollsters during the campaign are not generally informed or even, in a sense we describe, 'rational'. In contrast, voters decide, based on their enlightened preferences, as formed by the information they have learned during the campaign, as well as basic political cues such as ideology and party identification, which candidate to support eventually. We cannot prove this conclusion, but we do show that it is consistent with the aggregate forecasts and individual-level opinion poll responses. Based on the enlightened preferences hypothesis, we conclude that the news media have an important effect on the outcome of presidential elections - not through misleading advertisements, sound bites, or spin doctors, but rather by conveying candidates' positions on important issues.},
language = {English},
year = {1993},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
copyright = {Copyright © 1993 Cambridge University Press},
}
@article{lasswell1948structure,
title={The structure and function of communication in society},
author={Lasswell, Harold D},
journal={The communication of ideas},
volume={37},
pages={215--228},
year={1948},
publisher={New York}
}