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The Cohort Component Model (CCM) is a demographic modeling system used to project the population and households of the region. SANDAG’s Regional Forecast is developed using assumptions regarding fertility, mortality, migration and headship rates that align with the future economy of the San Diego Metropolitan Area. In summary, the SANDAG’s CCM generates annual projections of the demographic characteristics and household characteristics to ensure interconnectedness among the demographic components. The CCM includes input modules, a main forecast module, and an IPF/Rounding module. The detailed methodologies for each sub-module are specified in their relevant sub-sections.
| CCM Input Modules | Description |
|---|---|
| Base Year | Generates base year population by race, sex, and single year of age. |
| Death (Mortality) | Crude death rates by race, sex, and single year of age. |
| Birth (Fertility) | Crude birth rates by race and single year of age. |
The Cohort Component Method stands as a prominent legacy demographic modeling approach within the field of Demography. Numerous Metropolitan Planning Organizations and federal governments, like the US Census Bureau, have extensively employed this methodology for national and statewide population projections. A notable advantage of the cohort-component method lies in its flexibility, allowing modelers to integrate diverse data sources and apply it across various projection scenarios and geographical scales. This model not only forecasts total population but also offers comprehensive insights into the demographic composition, including race, sex, and single year of age breakdowns. This model extends the traditional framework to forecast household characteristics using population structure. It encompasses households, group quarter population, household size, workers in households, households with kids/seniors, and householders in labor force.