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Death Rates

GregorSchroeder edited this page Dec 20, 2023 · 14 revisions

1 Overview

Crude death rates are calculated within race, sex, and single year of age for each increment from the base year up to the launch year.

  • TBD - Utility to grow/decay death rates to meet horizon year expectations.

2 Input Datasets

3 Methods

  • Death rates are calculated for ages < 85 from CDC WONDER by simply dividing raw deaths by population for each race, sex, and single year of age category after setting "Suppressed" raw deaths (values < 10) to values of 4.5 and 0 raw deaths to values of 1. This strategy avoids missing value records and implausible 0% death rates. The CDC WONDER data sources used for each base/launch year within race/ethnicity categories is shown below.
  • For ages >= 85 the Social Security Actuarial Life Table is used for the chosen base/launch year, substituting the 2019 dataset for base/launch years 2020 and 2021 due to the outsize impact of COVID-19 on geriatric death rates. Note that there was no data published for 2012 or 2018 so those base/launch years default to the previous years of 2011 and 2017.

Table 1: CDC WONDER Exports

Note there is preference given to using actual race/ethnicity category data when available (in 2018 the ucd-icd10-expanded becomes available), 5-year rates, and never including both 2020 and 2021 datasets together due to the outsize impact of COVID-19; in that respective order.

Increment Year Race/Ethnicity File
2010-2017 Hispanic Hispanic or Latino; ucd-icd10; (2006-2013)-(2010-2017); Five Counties.txt
2010-2017 White alone Non-Hispanic White; ucd-icd10; (2006-2013)-(2010-2017); California (06).txt
2010-2017 Black or African American alone Non-Hispanic Black or African American; ucd-icd10; (2006-2013)-(2010-2017); Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2010-2017 American Indian or Alaska Native alone Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander; ucd-icd10; (2006-2013)-(2010-2017); Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2010-2017 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone All Origins and Races; ucd-icd10; (2006-2013)-(2010-2017); California (06).txt
2010-2017 Two or More Races All Origins and Races; ucd-icd10; (2006-2013)-(2010-2017); California (06).txt
2018 Hispanic Hispanic or Latino; ucd-icd10; 2014-2018; Five Counties.txt
2018 White alone Non-Hispanic White; ucd-icd10; 2014-2018; California (06).txt
2018 Black or African American alone Non-Hispanic Black or African American; ucd-icd10; 2014-2018; Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2018 American Indian or Alaska Native alone Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander; ucd-icd10; 2014-2018; Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2018 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander; ucd-icd10-expanded; 2018; National.txt
2018 Two or More Races Non-Hispanic More than one race; ucd-icd10-expanded; 2018; National.txt
2019 Hispanic Hispanic or Latino; ucd-icd10; 2015-2019; Five Counties.txt
2019 White alone Non-Hispanic White; ucd-icd10; 2015-2019; California (06).txt
2019 Black or African American alone Non-Hispanic Black or African American; ucd-icd10; 2015-2019; Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2019 American Indian or Alaska Native alone Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander; ucd-icd10; 2015-2019; Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2019 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander; ucd-icd10-expanded; 2018-2019; National.txt
2019 Two or More Races Non-Hispanic More than one race; ucd-icd10-expanded; 2018-2019; National.txt
2020 Hispanic Hispanic or Latino; ucd-icd10; 2016-2020; Five Counties.txt
2020 White alone Non-Hispanic White; ucd-icd10; 2016-2020; California (06).txt
2020 Black or African American alone Non-Hispanic Black or African American; ucd-icd10; 2016-2020; Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2020 American Indian or Alaska Native alone Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander; ucd-icd10; 2016-2020; Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2020 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander; ucd-icd10-expanded; 2018-2020; National.txt
2020 Two or More Races Non-Hispanic More than one race; ucd-icd10-expanded; 2018-2020; National.txt
2021 Hispanic Hispanic or Latino; ucd-icd10; 2016-2020; Five Counties.txt
2021 White alone Non-Hispanic White; ucd-icd10; 2016-2020; California (06).txt
2021 Black or African American alone Non-Hispanic Black or African American; ucd-icd10; 2016-2020; Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2021 American Indian or Alaska Native alone Non-Hispanic Asian or Pacific Islander; ucd-icd10; 2016-2020; Arizona (04), California (06), Oregon (41), Washington (53).txt
2021 Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander; ucd-icd10-expanded; 2018-2019, 2021; National.txt
2021 Two or More Races Non-Hispanic More than one race; ucd-icd10-expanded; 2018-2019, 2021; National.txt

4 Repository Location

The main classes, methods, and utilities associated with creating crude death rates are contained in python/death_rates.py