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Base Year Population
The population data for the base/launch year, broken down by race, sex, and single year of age, initiates the main forecast program. The program uses the base/launch year population data to generate forecasted data for the subsequent increment which then serves as the base for generating the forecast for the following increment. In each iteration of the forecast loop, the starting point is the increment from the previous loop. This cycle continues until the forecast reaches the horizon year.
Due to issues with the 2020 Census, a blended approach is used instead of the decennial Census.
- 2016-2020 5-year ACS PUMS person files
- San Diego County population projections from CA DOF vintage 2020 (2021.7.14)
- 2020 Census: Redistricting File (Public Law 94-171) Dataset for California
- San Diego County population estimates from CA DOF vintage 2022 (E-5 Population and Housing Estimates for Cities, Counties, and the State)
TBD
Creates a blended estimate of the total population distribution by race, sex, and single year of age using the 5-year PUJMS persons file and the CA DOF population projections.
- Creates blended estimate of population broken down by race, sex, and single year of age using the average of the 5-year ACS PUMS and DOF projection populations for ages <= 90. Reverts to solely using the DOF projection population for ages > 90.
- Resulting population scaled within race categories to match the 2020 Census Redistricting File values.
- Population is then scaled such that the total population matches the San Diego County population estimate from CA DOF for the chosen base/launch year.