Base Year Population

1 Overview

The population data for the base year, broken down by race, sex, and single year of age, initiates the main forecast program. The program uses the base year population data to generate forecasted data for the subsequent increment which then serves as the base for generating the forecast for the following increment. In each iteration of the forecast loop, the starting point is the increment from the previous loop. This cycle continues until the forecast reaches the horizon year.

Included in the base year population process is a sub-module splitting the active-duty military population out from the total population within race, sex, and single year of age. This is run as an add-on sub-module after the base year population data is generated and then for all subsequent increment years. The Active-Duty Military sub-module is described at this wiki page.

2 Input Datasets

Launch Years 2020+

Due to issues with the 2020 Census, a blended approach is used instead of the decennial Census.

Launch Years 2010-2019

TBD

3 Methods

Launch Years 2020+

Creates a blended estimate of the total population distribution by race, sex, and single year of age using the 2016-2020 5-year PUJMS persons file and the CA DOF population projections vintage 2020 (2021.7.14) controlled to the San Diego County population estimate from CA DOF for 2020 using the vintage of the chosen launch year.

Creates blended estimate of population broken down by race, sex, and single year of age using the average of the 2016-2020 5-year ACS PUMS and vintage 2020 DOF projection populations for ages <= 90. Reverts to solely using the DOF projection population for ages > 90. This method ensures a balanced race, sex, and age distribution.
Resulting population scaled within race categories to match the 2020 Census Redistricting File values.
Population is then scaled such that the total population matches the San Diego County population estimate from CA DOF for 2020 using the vintage from the chosen launch year.