- If you look closely at this recipe and its results, you will see
- that the reform-induced change in 2022 income tax liability is not
- exactly that same as the 2022 reform-induced change in the sum of
- the EITC (the parametric element of the reform) and the pseudo-COLR
- (the non-parametric element of the reform). Missing in the recipe
- results is a component of income tax liability that is changing in
- this reform and when its change is added to the change in EITC plus
- pseudo-COLR, the total will exactly equal the change in income tax
- liability. To find this missing component, we are conducting a
- contest with a $100 prize. Anybody who has a US bank account to
- which the prize money can be transferred is eligible to enter the
- contest, except for people in two ineligible groups: those who are
- members of the Policy Simulation Library Leadership Council and
- those who have ever attended a Tax-Calculator online staff meeting,
- which occurs every other Thursday at 5:00pm Eastern Time. Your
- contest entry, which must be submitted as a GitHub Tax-Calculator
- repository issue with the title Recipe 6 Contest Entry
, must
- include a Python script (no notebooks please) that produces 2025
- aggregate results rounded to the nearest million dollars for the
- reform-induced changes in income tax liability, EITC, pseudo-COLR,
- and the missing component, using the publicly-available CPS data that
- are in the taxcalc package. And most importantly, your entry must
- include an explanation of why the missing component of income tax
- liability changes when the pseudo-COLR replaces the EITC. The
- contest runs from May 20, 2019, until the submission of the first
- correct entry.
-
Ingredients
Policy reform in the diff --git a/docs/cookbook/recipe00.res b/docs/cookbook/recipe00.res index 2622c80fa..fa8e16029 100644 --- a/docs/cookbook/recipe00.res +++ b/docs/cookbook/recipe00.res @@ -1,28 +1,28 @@ -2020_CLP_itax_rev($B)= 1447.348 -2020_REF_itax_rev($B)= 1443.743 +2020_CLP_itax_rev($B)= 1450.248 +2020_REF_itax_rev($B)= 1446.991 CLP diagnostic table: 2020 Returns (#m) 167.510 AGI ($b) 12109.411 -Itemizers (#m) 32.050 -Itemized Deduction ($b) 902.537 -Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.470 -Standard Deduction ($b) 2420.211 +Itemizers (#m) 32.030 +Itemized Deduction ($b) 902.200 +Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.480 +Standard Deduction ($b) 2420.614 Personal Exemption ($b) 0.000 -Taxable Income ($b) 9272.044 -Regular Tax ($b) 1606.637 -AMT Income ($b) 11474.939 -AMT Liability ($b) 1.405 -AMT Filers (#m) 0.280 -Tax before Credits ($b) 1608.042 +Taxable Income ($b) 9280.899 +Regular Tax ($b) 1609.736 +AMT Income ($b) 11475.120 +AMT Liability ($b) 1.206 +AMT Filers (#m) 0.240 +Tax before Credits ($b) 1610.942 Refundable Credits ($b) 77.664 Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 94.005 Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000 Other Taxes ($b) 10.974 -Ind Income Tax ($b) 1447.348 +Ind Income Tax ($b) 1450.248 Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.691 -Combined Liability ($b) 2771.039 +Combined Liability ($b) 2773.939 With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 59.970 With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 38.980 @@ -30,24 +30,24 @@ REF diagnostic table: 2020 Returns (#m) 167.510 AGI ($b) 12109.411 -Itemizers (#m) 31.970 -Itemized Deduction ($b) 900.224 -Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.540 -Standard Deduction ($b) 2421.571 +Itemizers (#m) 31.960 +Itemized Deduction ($b) 899.970 +Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.550 +Standard Deduction ($b) 2421.875 Personal Exemption ($b) 333.334 -Taxable Income ($b) 9019.038 -Regular Tax ($b) 1600.587 -AMT Income ($b) 11476.890 -AMT Liability ($b) 1.397 -AMT Filers (#m) 0.290 -Tax before Credits ($b) 1601.985 +Taxable Income ($b) 9027.832 +Regular Tax ($b) 1603.993 +AMT Income ($b) 11477.028 +AMT Liability ($b) 1.239 +AMT Filers (#m) 0.260 +Tax before Credits ($b) 1605.232 Refundable Credits ($b) 80.415 Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 88.801 Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000 Other Taxes ($b) 10.974 -Ind Income Tax ($b) 1443.743 +Ind Income Tax ($b) 1446.991 Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.691 -Combined Liability ($b) 2767.434 +Combined Liability ($b) 2770.682 With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 62.220 With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 39.300 @@ -64,11 +64,11 @@ Extract of 2020 distribution table by baseline expanded-income decile: 60-70 16.75 62.473 58.499 1270.002 1273.976 70-80 16.75 108.590 103.219 1594.096 1599.467 80-90 16.75 218.186 209.884 2126.428 2134.730 -90-100 16.75 997.510 1021.368 4384.605 4360.747 -ALL 167.51 1447.348 1443.743 13058.905 13062.510 -90-95 8.38 218.019 213.730 1454.483 1458.772 -95-99 6.70 333.136 331.816 1692.273 1693.593 -Top 1% 1.68 446.355 475.822 1237.848 1208.382 +90-100 16.75 1000.410 1024.615 4381.705 4357.500 +ALL 167.51 1450.248 1446.991 13056.006 13059.263 +90-95 8.38 218.043 213.755 1454.459 1458.747 +95-99 6.70 333.586 332.299 1691.824 1693.110 +Top 1% 1.68 448.781 478.561 1235.422 1205.642 Extract of 2020 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile: funits(#m) agg_diff($b) mean_diff($) aftertaxinc_diff(%) @@ -83,8 +83,8 @@ Extract of 2020 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile: 60-70 16.75 -3.974 -237.2 0.3 70-80 16.75 -5.371 -320.6 0.3 80-90 16.75 -8.302 -495.6 0.4 -90-100 16.75 23.858 1424.2 -0.5 -ALL 167.51 -3.604 -21.5 0.0 -90-95 8.38 -4.289 -512.1 0.3 -95-99 6.70 -1.320 -197.0 0.1 -Top 1% 1.68 29.466 17578.2 -2.4 +90-100 16.75 24.205 1445.0 -0.6 +ALL 167.51 -3.257 -19.4 0.0 +90-95 8.38 -4.288 -511.9 0.3 +95-99 6.70 -1.287 -192.1 0.1 +Top 1% 1.68 29.780 17765.2 -2.4 diff --git a/docs/cookbook/recipe01.res b/docs/cookbook/recipe01.res index 3fdd46ad2..a089853de 100644 --- a/docs/cookbook/recipe01.res +++ b/docs/cookbook/recipe01.res @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ 2018_REFORM1_iitax_rev($B)= 1416.934 -2018_REFORM2_iitax_rev($B)= 1263.701 +2018_REFORM2_iitax_rev($B)= 1266.208 Extract of 2018 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile (taxfall is count of funits with cut in income tax in reform 2 vs 1) @@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ Extract of 2018 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile 60-70 16.29 11.97 1.92 -10.845 -665.9 0.9 70-80 16.29 13.29 1.70 -15.457 -949.1 1.1 80-90 16.29 13.56 2.22 -23.037 -1414.5 1.2 -90-100 16.29 14.50 1.68 -77.071 -4732.1 2.0 -ALL 162.86 107.55 17.91 -153.233 -940.9 1.3 -90-95 8.14 7.11 0.95 -17.949 -2204.3 1.4 -95-99 6.52 5.97 0.52 -34.986 -5369.6 2.3 -Top 1% 1.63 1.42 0.21 -24.136 -14819.8 2.2 +90-100 16.29 14.48 1.70 -74.565 -4578.2 1.9 +ALL 162.86 107.53 17.94 -150.727 -925.5 1.3 +90-95 8.14 7.11 0.95 -17.931 -2202.2 1.4 +95-99 6.52 5.96 0.54 -34.649 -5317.8 2.3 +Top 1% 1.63 1.41 0.22 -21.984 -13498.5 2.0 diff --git a/docs/cookbook/recipe02.res b/docs/cookbook/recipe02.res index bd11216e3..38813c48c 100644 --- a/docs/cookbook/recipe02.res +++ b/docs/cookbook/recipe02.res @@ -1,76 +1,76 @@ -2020_CURRENT_LAW_P__itax_rev($B)= 1447.348 -2020_REFORM_STATIC__itax_rev($B)= 1443.743 -2020_REFORM_DYNAMIC_itax_rev($B)= 1433.640 +2020_CURRENT_LAW_P__itax_rev($B)= 1450.248 +2020_REFORM_STATIC__itax_rev($B)= 1446.991 +2020_REFORM_DYNAMIC_itax_rev($B)= 1435.976 DIAGNOSTIC TABLE FOR BASELINE 2020 2021 2022 Returns (#m) 167.510 169.750 171.930 AGI ($b) 12109.411 12655.046 13180.408 -Itemizers (#m) 32.050 33.210 34.320 -Itemized Deduction ($b) 902.537 961.372 1020.720 -Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.470 136.530 137.610 -Standard Deduction ($b) 2420.211 2494.978 2571.343 +Itemizers (#m) 32.030 33.200 34.310 +Itemized Deduction ($b) 902.200 961.069 1020.424 +Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.480 136.550 137.620 +Standard Deduction ($b) 2420.614 2495.349 2571.709 Personal Exemption ($b) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -Taxable Income ($b) 9272.044 9706.177 10119.075 -Regular Tax ($b) 1606.637 1693.978 1775.247 -AMT Income ($b) 11474.939 11978.534 12461.377 -AMT Liability ($b) 1.405 1.403 1.399 -AMT Filers (#m) 0.280 0.270 0.280 -Tax before Credits ($b) 1608.042 1695.381 1776.646 +Taxable Income ($b) 9280.899 9715.522 10128.922 +Regular Tax ($b) 1609.736 1697.249 1778.694 +AMT Income ($b) 11475.120 11978.694 12461.532 +AMT Liability ($b) 1.206 1.198 1.185 +AMT Filers (#m) 0.240 0.240 0.240 +Tax before Credits ($b) 1610.942 1698.447 1779.879 Refundable Credits ($b) 77.664 78.142 79.485 Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 94.005 95.409 96.668 Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other Taxes ($b) 10.974 11.480 11.975 -Ind Income Tax ($b) 1447.348 1533.310 1612.467 +Ind Income Tax ($b) 1450.248 1536.376 1615.701 Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.691 1381.123 1436.210 -Combined Liability ($b) 2771.039 2914.433 3048.677 +Combined Liability ($b) 2773.939 2917.498 3051.911 With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 59.970 60.550 61.130 With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 38.980 39.670 40.430 DIAGNOSTIC TABLE FOR REFORM EXCLUDING BEHAVIORAL RESPONSES 2020 2021 2022 Returns (#m) 167.510 169.750 171.930 AGI ($b) 12109.411 12655.046 13180.408 -Itemizers (#m) 31.970 33.140 34.240 -Itemized Deduction ($b) 900.224 958.657 1017.703 -Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.540 136.610 137.690 -Standard Deduction ($b) 2421.571 2496.466 2573.093 +Itemizers (#m) 31.960 33.130 34.230 +Itemized Deduction ($b) 899.970 958.439 1017.483 +Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.550 136.620 137.700 +Standard Deduction ($b) 2421.875 2496.735 2573.364 Personal Exemption ($b) 333.334 345.010 356.808 -Taxable Income ($b) 9019.038 9444.178 9848.150 -Regular Tax ($b) 1600.587 1689.791 1772.489 -AMT Income ($b) 11476.890 11980.845 12463.925 -AMT Liability ($b) 1.397 1.393 1.387 -AMT Filers (#m) 0.290 0.290 0.280 -Tax before Credits ($b) 1601.985 1691.184 1773.877 +Taxable Income ($b) 9027.832 9453.458 9857.929 +Regular Tax ($b) 1603.993 1693.386 1776.278 +AMT Income ($b) 11477.028 11980.961 12464.041 +AMT Liability ($b) 1.239 1.230 1.219 +AMT Filers (#m) 0.260 0.260 0.250 +Tax before Credits ($b) 1605.232 1694.616 1777.497 Refundable Credits ($b) 80.415 80.945 82.575 Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 88.801 90.142 91.342 Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000 0.000 0.000 Other Taxes ($b) 10.974 11.480 11.975 -Ind Income Tax ($b) 1443.743 1531.576 1611.935 +Ind Income Tax ($b) 1446.991 1535.008 1615.555 Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.691 1381.123 1436.210 -Combined Liability ($b) 2767.434 2912.699 3048.145 +Combined Liability ($b) 2770.682 2916.131 3051.765 With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 62.220 62.730 63.340 With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 39.300 40.030 40.860 DIAGNOSTIC TABLE FOR REFORM INCLUDING BEHAVIORAL RESPONSES 2020 2021 2022 Returns (#m) 167.510 169.750 171.930 -AGI ($b) 12087.626 12630.858 13153.899 -Itemizers (#m) 31.940 33.090 34.210 -Itemized Deduction ($b) 899.061 957.247 1016.390 -Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.570 136.650 137.720 -Standard Deduction ($b) 2422.137 2497.238 2573.693 +AGI ($b) 12085.510 12628.610 13151.486 +Itemizers (#m) 31.930 33.080 34.200 +Itemized Deduction ($b) 898.746 956.928 1016.012 +Standard Deduction Filers (#m) 135.580 136.660 137.730 +Standard Deduction ($b) 2422.435 2497.532 2574.045 Personal Exemption ($b) 333.334 345.010 356.808 -Taxable Income ($b) 8997.708 9420.504 9822.180 -Regular Tax ($b) 1590.635 1678.936 1760.735 -AMT Income ($b) 11456.043 11957.779 12438.509 -AMT Liability ($b) 1.425 1.414 1.446 -AMT Filers (#m) 0.300 0.300 0.290 -Tax before Credits ($b) 1592.060 1680.350 1762.182 +Taxable Income ($b) 9004.221 9427.352 9829.351 +Regular Tax ($b) 1593.141 1681.574 1763.500 +AMT Income ($b) 11454.128 11955.735 12436.337 +AMT Liability ($b) 1.289 1.275 1.303 +AMT Filers (#m) 0.270 0.270 0.270 +Tax before Credits ($b) 1594.430 1682.850 1764.803 Refundable Credits ($b) 80.129 80.661 82.311 -Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 89.042 90.383 91.577 +Nonrefundable Credits ($b) 89.048 90.390 91.584 Reform Surtaxes ($b) 0.000 0.000 0.000 -Other Taxes ($b) 10.751 11.241 11.711 -Ind Income Tax ($b) 1433.640 1520.547 1600.004 -Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.424 1380.761 1435.772 -Combined Liability ($b) 2757.064 2901.308 3035.776 +Other Taxes ($b) 10.722 11.211 11.678 +Ind Income Tax ($b) 1435.976 1523.010 1602.586 +Payroll Taxes ($b) 1323.408 1380.745 1435.754 +Combined Liability ($b) 2759.384 2903.755 3038.340 With Income Tax <= 0 (#m) 62.060 62.540 63.160 With Combined Tax <= 0 (#m) 39.190 39.890 40.760 diff --git a/docs/cookbook/recipe04.res b/docs/cookbook/recipe04.res index ffdcc0307..881e9a712 100644 --- a/docs/cookbook/recipe04.res +++ b/docs/cookbook/recipe04.res @@ -2,5 +2,5 @@ Response in Charitable Giving by Earnings Group Earnings Group Num(#M) Resp($B) Resp(%) [-9e+99, 50000) 109.371 0.708 0.56 -[50000, 9e+99) 58.142 3.606 2.12 -ALL 167.512 4.314 1.46 +[50000, 9e+99) 58.142 3.608 2.12 +ALL 167.512 4.316 1.46 diff --git a/docs/cookbook/recipe05.res b/docs/cookbook/recipe05.res index 5f55dd555..567b33830 100644 --- a/docs/cookbook/recipe05.res +++ b/docs/cookbook/recipe05.res @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ 2018_REFORM1_iitax_rev($B)= 1416.934 -2018_REFORM2_iitax_rev($B)= 1263.701 +2018_REFORM2_iitax_rev($B)= 1266.208 Extract of 2018 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile (taxfall is count of funits with cut in income tax in reform 2 vs 1) @@ -16,8 +16,8 @@ Extract of 2018 income-tax difference table by expanded-income decile 60-70 16.29 13.71 2.36 -12.690 -779.2 1.5 70-80 16.29 14.05 2.07 -16.714 -1026.2 1.5 80-90 16.29 13.86 2.33 -23.193 -1424.1 1.4 -90-100 16.29 14.55 1.70 -77.139 -4736.3 2.1 -ALL 162.86 107.55 17.91 -153.233 -940.9 1.7 -90-95 8.14 7.16 0.96 -18.264 -2243.0 1.6 -95-99 6.52 5.98 0.53 -34.698 -5325.7 2.5 -Top 1% 1.63 1.42 0.21 -24.177 -14844.5 2.3 +90-100 16.29 14.53 1.72 -74.632 -4582.4 2.1 +ALL 162.86 107.53 17.94 -150.727 -925.5 1.7 +90-95 8.14 7.16 0.96 -18.251 -2241.3 1.6 +95-99 6.52 5.97 0.54 -34.358 -5273.6 2.5 +Top 1% 1.63 1.41 0.22 -22.023 -13522.2 2.1 diff --git a/docs/cookbook/recipe06.res b/docs/cookbook/recipe06.res index 9a1b0dda8..f39480796 100644 --- a/docs/cookbook/recipe06.res +++ b/docs/cookbook/recipe06.res @@ -1,5 +1,5 @@ YEAR UNITS ITAX1 ITAX2 EITC1 EITC2 COLR1 COLR2 -2019 165.3 1349.9 1349.9 48.5 48.5 0.0 0.0 -2020 167.5 1447.3 1212.4 48.5 0.0 0.0 283.4 -2021 169.7 1533.3 1293.2 49.2 0.0 0.0 289.3 -2022 171.9 1612.5 1366.9 50.1 0.0 0.0 295.6 +2019 165.3 1352.6 1352.6 48.5 48.5 0.0 0.0 +2020 167.5 1450.2 1215.3 48.5 0.0 0.0 283.4 +2021 169.7 1536.4 1296.2 49.2 0.0 0.0 289.3 +2022 171.9 1615.7 1370.2 50.1 0.0 0.0 295.6 diff --git a/docs/recipe00_graph.html b/docs/recipe00_graph.html index b0cd0b048..e99f3a21e 100644 --- a/docs/recipe00_graph.html +++ b/docs/recipe00_graph.html @@ -35,14 +35,14 @@ -
+