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Ideological positioning of the Chilean Chamber of Deputies for the period 2018-2022.html
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<h1 class="title toc-ignore">Ideological positioning of the Chilean
Chamber of Deputies in the period 2018-2022</h1>
<h4 class="author">Jaquelin Morillo</h4>
<h4 class="date">2022-12-26</h4>
</div>
<div id="introduction" class="section level3">
<h3>1. Introduction</h3>
<div id="social-outburst-and-sars-cov-2-pandemic"
class="section level4">
<h4>1.1 Social Outburst and SARS-COV-2 Pandemic</h4>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<p>With the purpose of demanding social rights, thousands of people
protested in Chile on October 18, 2019. Sectoral protests had already
shaken the social and political landscape of Chile, highlighting the
“Penguin Revolution”, the student mobilization in 2006 and several high
school student marches in 2011, so the mobilizations of 2019 was not an
unprecedented event in the recent history of Chile.</p>
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<p>The October 2019 demonstrations originated from the public
transportation hike which prompted high school students to demonstrate
in the subways of Santiago. These activities spread throughout the
country and culminated on October 18, 2019 in a nationwide revolt that
ended with more than 30 dead, more than 3000 injured and 70 subway
stations set on fire and vandalized according to government sources.
Protests intensified during the following weeks, adding new social
demands and more people across the country, reaching its climax on
October 25, 2019, with a citizen protest that, according to official
sources, summoned more than 1,200,000 people.</p>
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<p>Faced with the political, representation and institutional crisis,
the Chilean political class came together in the Agreement for Peace on
November 15, 2019, in which representatives of the political parties
agreed to respond to the citizens’ demand for the drafting of a new
constitution for Chile. Although the constituent process resulting from
the agreement did not result in a new constitutional text, it is clear
that the social outburst prompted the idea of new public policies and
legislation that sought to respond to citizen demands. Although many of
the demands of 2019 remain valid to this day, on March 3, 2020, the
first case infected with the SARS-COV-2 virus arrives in Chile, which
focuses citizen, political and media concerns towards the imminent
health crisis; so the demonstrations of 2019 pass to the background.</p>
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<p>Since the Chamber of Deputies has, among its responsibilities, the
role of representing the citizenry, it had a preponderant role during
the institutional crisis of 2019 and the health crisis resulting from
the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. This paper aims to reveal whether there were
changes in the ideological spectrum in the Chamber of Deputies and how
the social outbreak and the pandemic influenced them. The hypothesis is
that, given the significant changes in the political agenda, the
ideological spectrum was modified between the period before, during and
after the social outbreak. To this end, a brief review of previous works
on the state of the art in the study of congresses was carried out,
followed by a description of the main functions and characteristics of
the Chilean Congress, a brief descriptive review of the composition of
the Chamber of Deputies, and finally, the median voter theory was used
to compare the ideological distribution in the three periods.<br />
</p>
<div/>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="congresses" class="section level4">
<h4>1.2 Congresses</h4>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<p>Congresses are crucial institutions for the proper functioning of
democracy. Among their main functions are the representation of citizens
(Izquierdo Pinos, 1986; Navarro, 2006), legislative production (Casar,
2014; Visconti, 2011) and the control and supervision of the proper
functioning of the executive branch (Gamboa, 2006; Lizárraga Valdivia,
2019; Llanos, 1998).</p>
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<p>In this sense, the role of congressmen should be to work towards the
representation of the common interest under the condition of a rational
division of labor and the participation in the activities of control of
the state with the greatest possible transparency (Kirkland &
Harden, 2022); in addition to the production of legislation according to
the needs of citizens.</p>
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<p>Studies of congresses have been approached from a number of different
perspectives; understanding the legislature as the aggregator of the
activities of co-legislating bodies, including the executive branch, and
considering the impact and influence of other groups and organizations
outside government, such as parties, political leaders and interest
groups. Also, from a systemic perspective, thinking of congresses as a
set of actors with responsibilities and regulated by informal rules and
norms.</p>
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<p>The study of legislative processes, as in the field of public policy,
distinguishes between the positive agenda, dedicated to the production
of new regulations, on the one hand, and the negative agenda focused on
the control of other powers(Cox & McCubbins, 2005; Krehbiel &
Meirowitz, 2002). Another element that stands out in the framework of
legislative dynamics is the influence of external factors that impact on
the timing, procedures and design of regulations (De Echave, 2016;
Puente Martínez & Cerna Villagra, 2017; Sanchez, 2014).</p>
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<p>Finally, one school of thought focuses on the study of congressional
decision-making processes. In particular, the median voter theory
interprets congresses as collegial bodies with a certain ideological
disposition and argues that voters’ preferences are unimodal, meaning
that voters choose the alternatives closest to their preferred outcome.
In this way, the theorem seems to explain some of the behavior that
occurs in democratic majority voting systems (Carey, 2002; Grofman et
al., 2001; King, 2001, 2003).</p>
<div/>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div
id="how-the-chilean-congress-works-and-its-configuration-in-the-period-2018-2022"
class="section level4">
<h4>1.3 How the Chilean Congress works and its configuration in the
period 2018-2022</h4>
<div style="text-align: justify">
The Chilean Congress has a bicameral structure in which both the Senate
and the Chamber of Deputies are part of the legislative production
process, which means that bills must be approved by both Chambers. Each
of these processes is referred to as constitutional procedures (Aninat,
2006). Bills can originate in both the Senate and the Chamber of
Deputies and must be approved identically by both. If this does not
happen, there may be a third constitutional procedure in which the
chamber of origin votes on the bill under discussion in a closed rule.
If no agreement is reached, a joint committee is formed with the
participation of members of the chamber of origin and the revising
chamber to resolve the differences and then be ratified by both.
Regardless of the chamber of origin and the revising chamber, the bill
has two readings in each of them. This process is called legislative
procedure and in each procedure the bills are discussed, sent to one or
more committees and voted on in general, with close rule and in
particular (open rule). The purpose of the referral to committees is to
issue a report and the agreement of the text to be submitted to the
plenary for its scrutiny.
<div/>
<br>
<div style="text-align: justify">
It is worth highlighting the role of the committees not only in the way
they work, in which they incorporate participatory mechanisms so that
civil society can present its needs, points of view and interests, but
also in the expertise and specialized thematic focus of each committee.
Currently, in the Chamber of Deputies there are 27 working committees
with 13 Deputies participating in each committee. In the Senate there
are 27 standing committees with 5 appointed senators, and 11 special
committees with varying numbers of participants. The committees’ range
in subject matter from public security to emergencies, disasters and
firefighting.
<div/>
<br>
<div style="text-align: justify">
The Chilean legislative process is conditioned by a strong
presidentialism, where the executive has control over some of the most
relevant legislative initiatives(Alemán & Navia, 2009; Linz, 1990;
Mainwaring, 1990; Siavelis, 2009). The current Chilean Constitution
defines the set of legal functions and rights of authority of the
executive as the exclusive initiative in certain matters, the power to
set priorities on certain bills at certain stages of their development
or at all stages through an emergency mechanism, the power to exercise
its veto over bills approved by Congress, and the exercise of regulatory
power in all matters that are not limited to the legal sphere. In this
sense, in Chile, the presidential decree is one more tool of the
legislative technique for the executive to establish which lines of the
legislative process are its own, among other reasons, due to the greater
technical capacity of the ministries with respect to the
legislators.Moreover, throughout the legislative process, political
negotiations tend to take place mainly through formal or informal
meetings and committee negotiations. Also, initiatives tend to find
their genesis in the executive branch rather than in interactions
between congressmen.
<div/>
<br>
<div style="text-align: justify">
Finally, in the legislative production process, Chilean legislation
contemplates four types of quorums: ordinary legislation is approved
with a simple majority; qualified quorum laws require the affirmative
votes of the majority of the members of Congress in office; organic
constitutional laws require four-sevenths of the members of Congress to
be approved; and laws interpreting the constitution must have
three-fifths of the members of Congress in office. Finally,
constitutional reform bills require the approval of three-fifths, or
three-thirds, depending on the chapter of the Constitution to be
modified (Aninat, 2006).
<div/>
<br>
<div style="text-align: justify">
The Chamber of Deputies consists of 155 members representing the 28
electoral districts. In 2018, 122 men (79%) and 33 women (21%) took
office. 56% of the elected Chamber was opposition (87) and the remaining
44% pro-government (68). The party configuration can be seen in Figure
1, being the majority party RN with 34 deputies and the minority parties
PPR, PP and PEV with 1 deputy each.
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="Ideological%20positioning%20of%20the%20Chilean%20Chamber%20of%20Deputies%20for%20the%20period%202018-2022_files/figure-html/unnamed-chunk-3-1.png" width="576" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /></p>
<p><br></p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="methodology" class="section level3">
<h3>2. methodology</h3>
<div id="median-voter-theory-and-techniques" class="section level4">
<h4>2.1 Median Voter Theory and techniques</h4>
<div style="text-align: justify">
According to the median voter theorem, a majority voting election system
will typically select the choice made by the median voter. This
conclusion is reached by presuming that the voter takes a unidimensional
position and ranks the proposals according to their alignment with the
right and left ideologies. The theory also asserts that voter
preferences are unimodal, which means that people select the options
that are most similar to their chosen result. The theorem appears to
explain some of the behaviors that take place in democratic majority
voting systems in this way. It explains why politicians frequently use
the same campaign platforms and talking points in an effort to tailor
their proposals to the preferences of the typical voter. At the same
time, it explains why the more moderate suggestions typically receive
the majority of votes while the radical proposals are rarely adopted.
<div/>
<br>
<div style="text-align: justify">
In Harold Hotelling’s article Stability in Competition, these concepts
were originally presented (Hotelling, 1929). The author made a
comparison between political elections and businesses in the private
sector, asserting that just as there is little variation in the products
provided by many rival enterprises, there is also little difference in
the electoral platforms of various parties. This is so that they can win
over the majority of voters, much like marketers. The theorem and its
underlying assumptions were then made explicit for the first time by
Scottish economist Duncan Black (Black, 1948) which also provided a
formal study of majority voting. Black’s article triggered research on
how economics can explain voting systems, leading finally in 1957 to
Anthony Downs’s article “Economic Theory of Political Action in
Democracy” setting forth the median voter theorem (Downs, 1957).
<div/>
<br>
<div style="text-align: justify">
For the purpose of this paper, voting data were obtained using the
webscrapping technique from the enabled points of the House of Deputies
website (www.camara.cl).The wnominate package (Poole et al., 2011) in R
software (version 4.2.1) was used to estimate the ideological position
of deputies in the pre-social outburst period (from the beginning of the
period until October 17, 2019), in the period during the outburst (from
October 18, 2019 until March 2, 2020) and during the pandemic period
(from March 3, 2020 until the end of the period). These periods were not
selected on a whim. The first cut was chosen on October 17, 2019 as it
is a clear measure of the change in the social scenario and the
political situation. On the other hand, the second cut-off date was
March 2, 2020, given that it was the arrival of the first positive Covid
case in the national territory, which triggered the state of emergency,
the allocation of extraordinary resources and special sanitary measures,
which implied a change of direction in the priorities of the Chamber.
<div/>
<br>
<div style="text-align: justify">
It is important to mention that the technique used requires the
designation of an “anchor case”. The objective of this process is to
define an ideological extreme as a point of comparison to build the
ideological continuum. In this case, Guillermo Tellier, deputy for the
13th District, Metropolitan Region of Santiago, was designated.
Guillermo Tellier participated in the organization of the Communist
Party since 1958, occupying various positions, until 2006 when he
consolidated his position as national president of the party. Given his
trajectory, apart from his public statements and his historical
activism, he becomes an ideal anchor case to establish the
unidimensional ideological continuum in the three periods to be studied.
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
Finally, it is worth mentioning the changes in the composition of the
Chamber of Deputies. Given the political instability generated by the
social outbreak, some deputies left their posts for various reasons,
among them, to run for the constituent convention or because they had
been reassigned as Senators, Ministers of State or ambassadors. In order
not to dirty the ideological estimation, the methodological decision was
made to consider 155 deputies in the first and second periods and 163 in
the final period. However, it was not methodologically feasible to
divide the period according to each change that occurred, since this
exercise would lose its exploratory purpose.
<div/>
<p><br></p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="results" class="section level3">
<h3>3. Results</h3>
<div id="pre-social-outburst-period" class="section level4">
<h4>3.1 Pre social outburst period</h4>
<div style="text-align: justify">
In the pre-social outburst period, the median voter was Deputy Daniel
Verdessi (DC), a surgeon with an important experience in the public
sector and deputy since 1997, with a 0.05 coordenate to the left. On the
far right of the ideological spectrum are people associated with the
conservative wing of RN, such as Leopoldo Pérez and the great majority
of UDI deputies, such as Patricio Melero (in blue). On the far left are
Claudia Mix (RD) accompanied by the majority of her coalition and most
of the PC, such as Amaro Labra. In the center-right is EVO, in the
center-center the DC and the PR and in the center-left of the
ideological spectrum is the PS.
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="Results/Plot_p1.png" width="125%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /></p>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="during-social-outburst-period" class="section level4">
<h4>3.2 During social outburst period</h4>
<div style="text-align: justify">
With the upheaval caused by the social outburst, the status quo in the
chamber was modified. In this period, the median voter was Pepe Auth,
who began the period as a member of the PR and later as an independent.
It is interesting to note that the median voter with respect to the
previous period shifts almost one point to the right (coordinate -0.04).
Although the most extreme cases are Pamela Jiles (PH) and Raúl Alarcón
(PH who later resigned to become an independent), the extreme left
continues to be concentrated in the RD and the new left, while the PC,
although still on the left, is slightly towards the center. The extreme
right continues to be a bastion of the UDI and the conservative sectors
of RN. It is interesting that the center of the ideological spectrum
becomes more populated and a greater continuity is generated.
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="Results/Plot_p2.png" width="125%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /></p>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="sars-cov-2-pandemic-period" class="section level4">
<h4>3.3 SARS-CoV-2 pandemic period</h4>
<div style="text-align: justify">
The arrival of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic generates some changes in the
ideological scaffolding of the Chamber of Deputies. The median voter
moves to the right and, during this period, is incarnated by Manuel
Matta (DC) (coordinate-0.39). Likewise, there is greater continuity
between the center and the left. The extreme left continues to be taken
by RD, PH and PC.
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<p><img src="Results/Plot_p3.png" width="100%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" />
<br></p>
</div>
</div>
<div id="discussion-and-future-challenges" class="section level3">
<h3>4. Discussion and future challenges</h3>
<div style="text-align: justify">
According to the findings, it seems that the political and social
situation affected the ideological behavior of the Chamber of Deputies
in 2018-2022. In the first period analyzed, we found a Chamber with
three well-marked ideological positions. With the arrival of the social
outburst, a more consolidated center seems to emerge, but still
maintaining very steep slopes both on the right and on the left.
Although in this period the median voter is moving to the right, there
still seems to be a centrifugal force in the ideological positioning of
the Chamber, which is consistent with a social and political event that
divided not only the political elite but also the country as a whole.
Finally, the arrival of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Chile seems to have
generated a greater alignment of the ruling party with the policies to
face the virus, an effect that is not reflected in the center and the
left, which are still dispersed in the ideological spectrum. The
agglutination and coordination of the right wing manages to move the
median voter towards its sector, placing it in a marked limit with the
center and the left.
<div/>
<br>
<div style="text-align: justify">
As future challenges, we consider complementing the analysis by
differentiating between the median and the pivotal voter according to
the characteristics of each vote of the parliamentary period in order to
obtain a more refined study of the ideological positioning of the
Chamber. We also hope to complement this manuscript with
semi-experimental methods that allow us to establish causality. Finally,
it would be interesting to delve into the characteristics of
parliamentarians such as age, gender and region of origin to compare the
impact of these dimensions on ideological positioning.
<div/>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="references" class="section level3">
<h3>5. References</h3>
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<div/>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="annexes" class="section level3">
<h3>6. Annexes</h3>
<div id="ideological-estimation-pre-social-outburst-period"
class="section level4">
<h4>6.1 Ideological estimation pre social outburst period</h4>
<p><img src="Results/tablaP1.png" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /></p>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="ideological-estimation-during-social-outburst-period"
class="section level4">
<h4>6.2 Ideological estimation during social outburst period</h4>
<p><img src="Results/tablaP2.png" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /></p>
<p><br></p>
</div>
<div id="ideological-estimation-during-sars-cov-2-pandemic"
class="section level4">
<h4>6.3 Ideological estimation during SARS-CoV-2 pandemic</h4>
<p><img src="Results/tablaP3.png" width="40%" style="display: block; margin: auto;" /></p>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<div/>
<p><br></p>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<div/>
<p><br></p>
</div>
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