index.Rmd

---
title: "Forecasting Catch Time Series"
---

```{r echo=FALSE, warnings=FALSE, include=FALSE}
# devtools::install_github("rstudio/fontawesome")
library(fontawesome)
```

This week we will learn a number of standard approaches for forecasting from catch time series.  We will be using the data and methods discussed in Stergiou and Christou (1996) Modelling and forecasting annual fisheries catches: comparison of regression, univariate and multivariate time series methods. Fisheries Research 25: 105-136.

The lectures and labs can be found on the tabs in the top navigation bar.  An online book of the material is [here](https://fish-forecast.github.io/Fish-Forecast-Bookdown/).

# Course Syllabus

<img style="float: right" src="https://rverse-tutorials.github.io/Fish-Forecast-Training-Course/images/fish-forecast.jpg" width=20%>

- Time-varying regression
- Box-Jenkins (ARMA) Models
- Exponential smoothing
- Modelling time series with seasonality
- Forecast diagnostics and accuracy metrics

# References

We will be using classic methods for catch forecasting discussed in the following reference papers:

* We are replicating the work in [Stergio and Christou 1996](https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-7836(95)00389-4). See their [ResearchGate page](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/223836928_Modelling_and_forecasting_annual_fisheries_catches_Comparison_of_regression_univariate_and_multivariate_time_series_methods) for PDF reprint.
* These methods are also discussed in [Lawer 2016](http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/nr.2016.74018).  Open-Source PDF.
* And in [Georgakarakos et al 2006](https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2005.12.003).  A PDF reprint is available on the [Hellenic Center for Marine Research website](http://arch.her.hcmr.gr/publ.htm).
* The chapter on modeling seasonal catch data will use models discussed in [Stergiou et al 1997](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0165-7836(96)00482-1). See their [ResearchGate page](https://www.researchgate.net/publication/222888388_Modelling_and_forecasting_monthly_fisheries_catches_Comparison_of_regression_univariate_and_multivariate_time_series_methods) for PDF reprint.

# Links

- [Main Course Page](https://rverse-tutorials.github.io/Fish-Forecast-Training-Course/)
- [Catch Forecasting](https://fish-forecast.github.io/Catch-Forecasting-INCOIS/)
- [R Workflow](https://rverse-tutorials.github.io/RWorkflow-Workshop/)

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