Country Area - 752,610 km²
Range Area - 170,466 km² (23%)
Protected Range - 27%
Information Quality Index (IQI) - 0.50
CITES Appendix - I
Listing Year - 1990
Zambia has a number of large protected areas, and much of the country is covered by game management areas. However, wildlife densities are generally low. Elephant populations were badly affected by poaching in the late 1970s and poaching for ivory continues to be a problem (Nyirenda et al., 2015). The large size of the national parks and particularly of the game management areas makes it difficult to manage them effectively with limited resources (Lindsey et al., 2014).
The Bangweulu Wetlands are being co-managed by the African Parks Network and North Luangwa National Park is being co-managed by the Frankfurt Zoological Society.
The Zambia Wildlife Act (1998), which established the parastatal Zambia Wildlife Authority, was repealed by the Zambia Wildlife Act (2015), which placed responsibility for wildlife management under the National Parks and Wildlife Department. Zambia published a national policy and action plan for elephant management in 2003 (Ministry of Tourism, 2003).
Trophy hunting of elephants is legal in Zambia. From 2007 to 2012, Zambia increased its annual export quota of elephant hunting trophies from 40 (tusks and other hunting trophies from 20 animals) to 160 (tusks and other trophies from 80 animals) (CITES, n.d.-b). Zambia declared a temporary suspension of elephant hunting in 2013, and the quota declared to CITES in 2013 and 2014 was zero. There appears to be some confusion about whether the suspension had been lifted in late 2014 (Kunda, 2014). The declared quota to CITES for 2015 and 2016 was 160 (CITES, n.d.-b).
The estimated number of elephants in areas surveyed in the last ten years in Zambia is 21,967 ± 4,703 at the time of the last survey for each area. There may be an additional 214 to 314 elephants in areas not systematically surveyed. These guesses likely represent a minimum number, and actual numbers could be higher than those reported. Together, this estimate and guess apply to 105,461 km², which is 62% of the estimated known and possible elephant range. There remains an additional 38% of the estimated range for which no elephant population estimates are available.
Elephant numbers in Zambia have changed little since the last update. The main changes have been a reduction in guesses from isolated small populations such as West Lunga and Bangweulu. There has been a substantial reduction in numbers in Sioma Ngwezi National Park but this makes up a small proportion of the national population.
A country wide aerial survey was carried out in 2015 as part of the Great Elephant Census, covering the four major elephant range areas (DNPW, 2016): the Luangwa Valley, the Kafue ecosystem, the Lower Zambezi Valley and Sioma Ngwezi NP and surrounding game management areas (GMAs). A 2013 countrywide survey was carried out but the results were not released. The previous country-wide survey was carried out in 2008 (Simukonda, 2009), but it is unclear how comparable the methods were to the 2015 survey.
The Luangwa Valley includes South Luangwa National Park, North Luangwa NP, Luambe National Park, Lukusuzi National Park and a number of GMAs. In the 1970s this area held a population of perhaps 100,000 elephants (Caughley & Goddard, 1975), but this was greatly reduced by poaching in the late 1970s and 1980s (Jachmann & Billiouw, 1997). Aerial sample counts have been carried out since the 1970s but they have been inconsistent in coverage and methodology, making comparisons difficult.
An aerial sample count was carried out in the Luangwa ecosystem in 2015 as part of the Great Elephant Census (DNPW, 2016). The total estimate was 13,898 ± 3,555 (DNPW, 2016). A series of earlier surveys had appeared to show a decline in numbers, going from 18,634 ± 3592 in 2008 (Simukonda, 2009) to 10,649 ± 2,205 in 2011 and 6,361 ± 1652 in 2012 (DNPW, 2016) so the higher figure in 2015 was unexpected.
The sub-total for North Luangwa NP in 2015 was 4,673 ± 1,788 elephants (DNPW, 2016). This replaces an estimate of 3,235 ± 695 from 2003 (van der Westhuizen, 2003). The estimate for South Luangwa NP in 2015 was 3,302 ± 1,194 (DNPW, 2016) which replaces an estimate of 4,459 ± 695 from 2002 (Dunham & Simwanza, 2002).
There was no estimate for Luambe NP in the AESR 2007, whereas the 2015 survey gave an estimate of 54 ± 77. No elephants were seen in Lukusuzi National Park in the 2015 survey, nor in the preceding 2005 count of the area (Fourie & Ferreira, 2005). West Petauke and Luano GMAs were not covered in the 2015 survey, so a zero estimate from 2009 (WCS Flight Programme, 2009) and guess of 150 from 1996 (Jachmann, 1996) have been retained.
Some changes have been made to the range map for the Luangwa ecosystem on the basis of these surveys. The southern GMA of West Petauke has been changed from known range to possible range as has much of the eastern part of the ecosystem.
Kafue National Park and adjoining GMAs hold the country’s second largest elephant population. The 2015 aerial sample count gave an estimate of 6,689 ± 1,418 (4,813 ± 2,265 in the NP and 1,876 ± 2,064 in the surrounding GMAs (DNPW, 2016). These replace a 2004 estimate of 6,306 ± 5,227 in the park only (Simwanza, 2004). The carcass ratio for Kafue NP was only 1% in 2008 and increased to 7% by 2015 (DNPW, 2016) giving some cause for concern, despite the apparent stability of the population. Minor changes have been made to the range map (Beattie, pers. comm., 2015)
The 2015 survey gave an estimate for the Lower Zambezi system, comprising the Lower Zambezi National Park and surrounding GMAs, of 973 ± 589 for the park and 153 ± 172 for the surrounding GMAs (DNPW, 2016). This replaces a 2003 estimate of 1,477 ± 744 for the park, and 45 ± 53 for the GMAs (Dunham, 2004). Another count in 2008 gave an estimate of 1,298 ± 438 (Simukonda, 2009). The elephants in Lower Zambezi NP are confined to a fairly small area along the Zambezi River below the escarpment and the area of known range has been reduced on the basis of sightings from aerial surveys and mortality records (Stevenson, pers. comm., 2015).
Sioma Ngwezi National Park is surrounded by GMAs in the south-west close to the Namibian and Angolan borders. The 2015 aerial sample count gave an estimate of 48 ± 78 for the park and a zero estimate for the GMAs (DNPW, 2016). This replaces an estimate of 385 ± 371 from 2005 (Chase & Griffin, 2005). There were also aerial sample counts in 2008 (Simukonda, 2009), 2009 and 2013 (Chase et al., 2013) which gave estimates of 2,433 ± 2,210, 400 (no confidence limits given) and 133 ± 149, respectively. The carcass ratio increased dramatically from 3% to 85% between 2008 and 2015 (DNPW, 2016) indicating either high levels of poaching and/or a seasonally varying population. Elephants move between Sioma Ngwezi, Namibia and Botswana (Chase et al., 2013).
There is a small population of elephants in the Mosi-oa-Tunya National Park next to Victoria Falls. An aerial total count of 31 in 2008 (Simukonda, 2009) replaces a guess of 306 from 2006 (Chase, 2006). No elephants were observed in the adjoining Kazungula ecosystem in an aerial sample count in 2008 (Simukonda, 2009). This area had not previously been surveyed.
There are only five resident elephants (Willems, pers. comm., 2016) in the Bangweulu Wetlands, contributing to an informed guess of 45 for the entire Bangweulu/Kasanka/Lavusha Manda system close to the DRC border. This replaces a series of old guesses amounting to 144 from the 1990s (Blanc et al., 2007). The area of known range has been increased.
There is a small isolated elephant population on the north bank of Lake Kariba, in the Kotakota area. An estimate of 19 animals from 1991 has been retained from the AESR 2007 (Tembo, pers. comm., 1993).
There are about 100 elephants in Nsumbu National Park (Tanganyika ecosystem) on the southern shores of Lake Tanganyika. In the past this was thought to be connected to the elephant population in Katavi and there was an annual migration to the southern region of the DRC but this has not taken place since 2007, after a major poaching incident on the border. The elephants are now restricted to part of the park and the area of known and possible range has been reduced accordingly (Zytkow, pers. comm., 2016).
West Lunga National Park is in the far west, close to the Angolan border. There were estimated to be over 500 elephants in 1996, but numbers appear to have dropped considerably since then. There were sightings of 21 individuals in 2014 as well as a number of other scattered recordings (Tilbury, pers. comm., 2015; ZAWA & WWF, 2014). The area of known range has been expanded to the area of these sightings.